FIFA World Cup 2026 · Transparent model
Every probability,
shown and graded in public.
One Elo + Poisson model, calibrated on thousands of historical internationals and open to inspection. It flags value only where it genuinely disagrees with the de-vigged market — and every bet is logged and scored against the closing line. Analysis, not tips.
Next matchday
Thursday 11 June
2 matches Group A
Mexico 71%
VS
South Africa 9%
SCHEDULED xG 2.1–0.6 ✎
Group A
South Korea 32%
VS
Czech Republic 39%
SCHEDULED xG 1.0–1.4 ✎
Group B
Canada 57%
VS
Bosnia & Herzegovina 18%
SCHEDULED xG 1.7–0.8 ✎
Group D
USA 45%
VS
Paraguay 28%
SCHEDULED xG 1.0–1.7 ✎
Group B
Qatar 4%
VS
Switzerland 84%
SCHEDULED xG 0.2–2.9 ✎
Group C
Brazil 55%
VS
Morocco 19%
SCHEDULED xG 1.3–1.1 ✎
ESPN team news
Poch 'annoyed' as Richards out of final U.S. tuneu...
USA
ESPN team news
Karl injured in Germany training, may miss WCup
Germany
ESPN
Hayes: Brazil 'chaos' will help USWNT improve
BrazilUSA
ESPN team news
Brazil's Ancelotti: Neymar to have MRI Monday
Brazil
ESPN
Mourinho takes Türkiye to court over sanctions
Turkey
The Guardian
Spain v England: Women’s World Cup 2027 qualifying – live
SpainEngland
The Guardian
‘I don’t want to give my money to Fifa’: Toronto turns its back on the World Cup
Canada
The Guardian team news
Iran’s World Cup players receive visas to enter US, White House official says
MexicoUSAIran
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