Pre-tournament · Full transparency
Road to the World Cup
The warm-ups and run-in for all 48 teams — and, on every game, what our model predicted before kickoff (computed from ratings as they stood before the match — no hindsight). We show the misses too: this is the model's honest track record walking into the tournament, not a highlight reel.
54/78 pre-match calls correct
69% hit rate on the run-in
47 World Cup teams in action
These are all warm-up friendlies — rotated XIs, experiments, little at stake — so even a sharp model is often wrong, and the market itself moves little on them. That's exactly why the model counts them at half weight. Read the hit rate as honesty, not a promise. How ratings work →
The tournament so far
67/104 model calls correct · 64%The real thing — actual World Cup 2026 results, kept separate from the warm-up run-in below. Each carries the model's pre-kickoff call, scored the same honest way.
| Date | Match | Result | Model's pre-match call |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Jul |  Spain v  Argentina | 1–0 | ✓ Spain 44% |
| 18 Jul |  France v  England | 4–6 | ✗ France 32% |
| 15 Jul | England v Argentina | 1–2 | ✓ Argentina 39% |
| 14 Jul | France v Spain | 0–2 | ✗ France 33% |
| 11 Jul | Argentina v  Switzerland | 3–1 | ✓ Argentina 53% |
| 11 Jul |  Norway v England | 1–2 | ✓ England 46% |
| 10 Jul | Spain v  Belgium | 2–1 | ✓ Spain 52% |
| 9 Jul | France v  Morocco | 2–0 | ✓ France 55% |
| 7 Jul | Switzerland v  Colombia | 0–0 | ✗ Colombia 31% |
| 7 Jul | Argentina v  Egypt | 3–2 | ✓ Argentina 73% |
| 6 Jul |  USA v Belgium | 1–4 | ✗ USA 31% |
| 6 Jul |  Portugal v Spain | 0–1 | ✓ Spain 53% |
| 5 Jul |  Mexico v England | 2–3 | ✗ Mexico 31% |
| 5 Jul |  Brazil v Norway | 1–2 | ✗ Brazil 25% |
| 4 Jul |  Paraguay v France | 0–1 | ✓ France 77% |
| 4 Jul |  Canada v Morocco | 0–3 | ✓ Morocco 61% |
| 3 Jul | Colombia v  Ghana | 1–0 | ✓ Colombia 76% |
| 3 Jul | Argentina v  Cape Verde | 3–2 | ✓ Argentina 88% |
| 3 Jul |  Australia v Egypt | 1–1 | ✗ Australia 30% |
| 2 Jul | Portugal v  Croatia | 2–1 | ✓ Portugal 48% |
| 2 Jul | Spain v  Austria | 3–0 | ✓ Spain 72% |
| 2 Jul | Switzerland v  Algeria | 2–0 | ✓ Switzerland 52% |
| 1 Jul | USA v  Bosnia & Herzegovina | 2–0 | ✓ USA 71% |
| 1 Jul | Belgium v  Senegal | 3–2 | ✓ Belgium 42% |
| 1 Jul | England v  DR Congo | 2–1 | ✓ England 67% |
| 30 Jun | Mexico v  Ecuador | 2–0 | ✓ Mexico 51% |
| 30 Jun | France v  Sweden | 3–0 | ✓ France 82% |
| 30 Jun |  Ivory Coast v Norway | 1–2 | ✓ Norway 47% |
| 29 Jun |  Netherlands v Morocco | 1–1 | ✗ Netherlands 30% |
| 29 Jun |  Germany v Paraguay | 1–1 | ✗ Germany 29% |
| 29 Jun | Brazil v  Japan | 2–1 | ✓ Brazil 51% |
| 28 Jun |  South Africa v Canada | 0–1 | ✓ Canada 46% |
| 27 Jun | Colombia v Portugal | 0–0 | ✗ Colombia 30% |
| 27 Jun | Algeria v Austria | 3–3 | ✗ Austria 30% |
| 27 Jun |  Jordan v Argentina | 1–3 | ✓ Argentina 90% |
| 27 Jun |  Panama v England | 0–2 | ✓ England 82% |
| 27 Jun | DR Congo v  Uzbekistan | 3–1 | ✓ DR Congo 44% |
| 27 Jun | Croatia v Ghana | 2–1 | ✓ Croatia 56% |
| 26 Jun | Senegal v  Iraq | 5–0 | ✓ Senegal 53% |
| 26 Jun | Norway v France | 1–4 | ✓ France 44% |
| 26 Jun |  Uruguay v Spain | 0–1 | ✓ Spain 76% |
| 26 Jun | Cape Verde v  Saudi Arabia | 0–0 | ✗ Cape Verde 30% |
| 26 Jun |  New Zealand v Belgium | 1–5 | ✓ Belgium 69% |
| 26 Jun | Egypt v  Iran | 1–1 | ✗ Egypt 30% |
| 25 Jun | USA v  Turkey | 2–3 | ✗ USA 9% |
| 25 Jun | Paraguay v Australia | 0–0 | ✗ Australia 30% |
| 25 Jun |  Curaçao v Ivory Coast | 0–2 | ✓ Ivory Coast 70% |
| 25 Jun | Ecuador v Germany | 2–1 | ✗ Germany 20% |
| 25 Jun | Japan v Sweden | 1–1 | ✗ Japan 24% |
| 25 Jun |  Tunisia v Netherlands | 1–3 | ✓ Netherlands 87% |
| 24 Jun | Morocco v  Haiti | 4–2 | ✓ Morocco 81% |
| 24 Jun |  Scotland v Brazil | 0–3 | ✓ Brazil 60% |
| 24 Jun | Bosnia & Herzegovina v  Qatar | 3–1 | ✓ Bosnia & Herzegovina 58% |
| 24 Jun | Canada v Switzerland | 1–2 | ✓ Switzerland 39% |
| 24 Jun | South Africa v  South Korea | 1–0 | ✗ South Korea 14% |
| 24 Jun | Mexico v  Czech Republic | 3–0 | ✓ Mexico 78% |
| 23 Jun | Colombia v DR Congo | 1–0 | ✓ Colombia 67% |
| 23 Jun | Portugal v Uzbekistan | 5–0 | ✓ Portugal 64% |
| 23 Jun | Panama v Croatia | 0–1 | ✓ Croatia 57% |
| 23 Jun | England v Ghana | 0–0 | ✗ England 13% |
| 22 Jun | Argentina v Austria | 2–0 | ✓ Argentina 65% |
| 22 Jun | Norway v Senegal | 3–2 | ✓ Norway 64% |
| 22 Jun | France v Iraq | 3–0 | ✓ France 86% |
| 22 Jun | Jordan v Algeria | 1–2 | ✓ Algeria 52% |
| 21 Jun | Uruguay v Cape Verde | 2–2 | ✗ Uruguay 24% |
| 21 Jun | Spain v Saudi Arabia | 4–0 | ✓ Spain 89% |
| 21 Jun | New Zealand v Egypt | 1–3 | ✓ Egypt 57% |
| 21 Jun | Belgium v Iran | 0–0 | ✗ Belgium 28% |
| 20 Jun | Tunisia v Japan | 0–4 | ✓ Japan 79% |
| 20 Jun | Netherlands v Sweden | 5–1 | ✓ Netherlands 49% |
| 20 Jun | Ecuador v Curaçao | 0–0 | ✗ Ecuador 15% |
| 20 Jun | Germany v Ivory Coast | 2–1 | ✓ Germany 45% |
| 19 Jun | Scotland v Morocco | 0–1 | ✓ Morocco 51% |
| 19 Jun | Brazil v Haiti | 3–0 | ✓ Brazil 79% |
| 19 Jun | USA v Australia | 2–0 | ✓ USA 36% |
| 19 Jun | Turkey v Paraguay | 0–1 | ✗ Turkey 25% |
| 18 Jun | Canada v Qatar | 6–0 | ✓ Canada 83% |
| 18 Jun | Switzerland v Bosnia & Herzegovina | 4–1 | ✓ Switzerland 61% |
| 18 Jun | Mexico v South Korea | 1–0 | ✓ Mexico 58% |
| 18 Jun | Czech Republic v South Africa | 1–1 | ✗ Czech Republic 27% |
| 17 Jun | Ghana v Panama | 1–0 | ✗ Panama 17% |
| 17 Jun | England v Croatia | 4–2 | ✓ England 57% |
| 17 Jun | Uzbekistan v Colombia | 1–3 | ✓ Colombia 66% |
| 17 Jun | Portugal v DR Congo | 1–1 | ✗ Portugal 21% |
| 16 Jun | Austria v Jordan | 3–1 | ✓ Austria 48% |
| 16 Jun | Argentina v Algeria | 3–0 | ✓ Argentina 68% |
| 16 Jun | Iraq v Norway | 1–4 | ✓ Norway 76% |
| 16 Jun | France v Senegal | 3–1 | ✓ France 68% |
| 15 Jun | Iran v New Zealand | 2–2 | ✗ Iran 24% |
| 15 Jun | Belgium v Egypt | 1–1 | ✗ Belgium 27% |
| 15 Jun | Spain v Cape Verde | 0–0 | ✗ Spain 6% |
| 15 Jun | Saudi Arabia v Uruguay | 1–1 | ✗ Uruguay 21% |
| 14 Jun | Netherlands v Japan | 2–2 | ✗ Netherlands 31% |
| 14 Jun | Ivory Coast v Ecuador | 1–0 | ✗ Ecuador 16% |
| 14 Jun | Germany v Curaçao | 7–1 | ✓ Germany 83% |
| 14 Jun | Sweden v Tunisia | 5–1 | ✓ Sweden 47% |
| 13 Jun | Australia v Turkey | 2–0 | ✗ Turkey 20% |
| 13 Jun | Haiti v Scotland | 0–1 | ✓ Scotland 58% |
| 13 Jun | Brazil v Morocco | 1–1 | ✗ Brazil 30% |
| 13 Jun | Qatar v Switzerland | 1–1 | ✗ Switzerland 10% |
| 12 Jun | USA v Paraguay | 4–1 | ✗ Paraguay 31% |
| 12 Jun | Canada v Bosnia & Herzegovina | 1–1 | ✗ Canada 20% |
| 11 Jun | South Korea v Czech Republic | 2–1 | ✓ South Korea 37% |
| 11 Jun | Mexico v South Africa | 2–0 | ✓ Mexico 85% |
Live match-by-match calibration is tracked on the calibration page →
Tonight's warm-ups
live & upcomingLive scores fetched in your browser from ESPN; finished games also flow into the permanent record below.
Every call on the run-in
since 1 May| Date | Match | Result | Model's pre-match call |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct | South Korea v V Venezuela ×½ | 0–0 | ✗ South Korea 30% |
| 2 Oct | DR Congo v U Uganda ×½ | 0–2 | ✗ DR Congo 3% |
| 1 Oct | Argentina v B Bolivia ×½ | 4–0 | ✓ Argentina 96% |
| 1 Oct | Uzbekistan v S Syria ×½ | 4–1 | ✓ Uzbekistan 56% |
| 30 Sept | USA v C Chile ×½ | 4–2 | ✓ USA 49% |
| 30 Sept | Mexico v P Peru ×½ | 1–1 | ✗ Mexico 17% |
| 29 Sept | R Russia v Iran ×½ | 2–0 | ✓ Russia 41% |
| 29 Sept | Australia v Brazil ×½ | 2–4 | ✓ Brazil 43% |
| 10 Jun | England v CR Costa Rica ×½ | 3–0 | ✓ England 83% |
| 10 Jun | B Bolivia v Algeria ×½ | 0–4 | ✓ Algeria 55% |
| 10 Jun | Portugal v N Nigeria ×½ | 2–1 | ✓ Portugal 59% |
| 9 Jun | DR Congo v C Chile ×½ | 1–2 | ✗ DR Congo 33% |
| 9 Jun | Argentina v I Iceland ×½ | 3–0 | ✓ Argentina 89% |
| 9 Jun | Iraq v V Venezuela ×½ | 0–2 | ✓ Venezuela 43% |
| 9 Jun | Saudi Arabia v Senegal ×½ | 0–0 | ✗ Senegal 23% |
| 8 Jun | P Peru v Spain ×½ | 1–3 | ✓ Spain 88% |
| 8 Jun | Netherlands v Uzbekistan ×½ | 2–1 | ✓ Netherlands 57% |
| 8 Jun | France v NI Northern Ireland ×½ | 3–1 | ✓ France 90% |
| 7 Jun | Croatia v S Slovenia ×½ | 2–1 | ✓ Croatia 72% |
| 7 Jun | Ecuador v G Guatemala ×½ | 3–0 | ✓ Ecuador 81% |
| 7 Jun | Jordan v Colombia ×½ | 0–2 | ✓ Colombia 66% |
| 7 Jun | Morocco v Norway ×½ | 1–1 | ✗ Norway 30% |
| 6 Jun | Brazil v Egypt ×½ | 2–1 | ✓ Brazil 60% |
| 6 Jun | B Bolivia v Scotland ×½ | 0–4 | ✓ Scotland 48% |
| 6 Jun | B Bermuda v Cape Verde ×½ | 3–0 | ✗ Cape Verde 3% |
| 6 Jun | Belgium v Tunisia ×½ | 5–0 | ✓ Belgium 77% |
| 6 Jun | Australia v Switzerland ×½ | 1–1 | ✗ Switzerland 28% |
| 6 Jun | Argentina v H Honduras ×½ | 2–0 | ✓ Argentina 86% |
| 6 Jun | England v New Zealand ×½ | 1–0 | ✓ England 85% |
| 6 Jun | Curaçao v A Aruba ×½ | 4–0 | ✓ Curaçao 87% |
| 6 Jun | J Jamaica v South Africa ×½ | 0–1 | ✗ Jamaica 34% |
| 6 Jun | USA v Germany ×½ | 1–2 | ✓ Germany 45% |
| 6 Jun | V Venezuela v Turkey ×½ | 1–2 | ✓ Turkey 64% |
| 6 Jun | Qatar v ES El Salvador ×½ | 0–0 | ✗ Qatar 30% |
| 6 Jun | Portugal v C Chile ×½ | 2–1 | ✓ Portugal 76% |
| 6 Jun | Panama v Bosnia & Herzegovina ×½ | 1–1 | ✗ Panama 27% |
| 5 Jun | Canada v ROI Republic of Ireland ×½ | 1–1 | ✗ Canada 25% |
| 5 Jun | Haiti v P Peru ×½ | 1–2 | ✓ Peru 39% |
| 5 Jun | Paraguay v N Nicaragua ×½ | 4–0 | ✓ Paraguay 92% |
| 5 Jun | PR Puerto Rico v Saudi Arabia ×½ | 0–3 | ✓ Saudi Arabia 74% |
| 4 Jun | G Guatemala v Czech Republic ×½ | 1–5 | ✓ Czech Republic 54% |
| 4 Jun | France v Ivory Coast ×½ | 1–2 | ✗ France 3% |
| 4 Jun | Mexico v S Serbia ×½ | 5–1 | ✓ Mexico 71% |
| 4 Jun | Iran v M Mali ×½ | 2–0 | ✓ Iran 56% |
| 4 Jun | Spain v Iraq ×½ | 1–1 | ✗ Spain 5% |
| 4 Jun | Sweden v G Greece ×½ | 2–2 | ✗ Sweden 29% |
| 3 Jun | DR Congo v D Denmark ×½ | 0–0 | ✗ Denmark 27% |
| 3 Jun | South Korea v ES El Salvador ×½ | 1–0 | ✓ South Korea 78% |
| 3 Jun | Netherlands v Algeria ×½ | 0–1 | ✗ Netherlands 11% |
| 3 Jun | Panama v DR Dominican Republic ×½ | 4–2 | ✓ Panama 87% |
| 2 Jun | W Wales v Ghana ×½ | 1–1 | ✗ Wales 24% |
| 2 Jun | Morocco v M Madagascar ×½ | 4–0 | ✓ Morocco 93% |
| 2 Jun | Haiti v New Zealand ×½ | 4–0 | ✗ New Zealand 29% |
| 2 Jun | Croatia v Belgium ×½ | 0–2 | ✗ Croatia 20% |
| 1 Jun | Colombia v CR Costa Rica ×½ | 3–1 | ✓ Colombia 84% |
| 1 Jun | Austria v Tunisia ×½ | 1–0 | ✓ Austria 67% |
| 1 Jun | Canada v Uzbekistan ×½ | 2–0 | ✓ Canada 55% |
| 1 Jun | Norway v Sweden ×½ | 3–1 | ✓ Norway 75% |
| 1 Jun | Turkey v NM North Macedonia ×½ | 4–0 | ✓ Turkey 86% |
| 31 May | Brazil v Panama ×½ | 6–2 | ✓ Brazil 71% |
| 31 May | Cape Verde v S Serbia ×½ | 3–0 | ✗ Serbia 18% |
| 31 May | Germany v F Finland ×½ | 4–0 | ✓ Germany 87% |
| 31 May | Czech Republic v K Kosovo ×½ | 2–1 | ✗ Kosovo 34% |
| 31 May | Switzerland v Jordan ×½ | 4–1 | ✓ Switzerland 69% |
| 31 May | USA v Senegal ×½ | 3–2 | ✓ USA 36% |
| 31 May | Japan v I Iceland ×½ | 1–0 | ✓ Japan 84% |
| 30 May | Mexico v Australia ×½ | 1–0 | ✓ Mexico 43% |
| 30 May | South Korea v TAT Trinidad and Tobago ×½ | 5–0 | ✓ South Korea 75% |
| 30 May | Ecuador v Saudi Arabia ×½ | 2–1 | ✓ Ecuador 80% |
| 30 May | Scotland v Curaçao ×½ | 4–1 | ✓ Scotland 77% |
| 29 May | South Africa v N Nicaragua ×½ | 0–0 | ✗ South Africa 22% |
| 29 May | Iran v G Gambia ×½ | 3–1 | ✓ Iran 71% |
| 29 May | Bosnia & Herzegovina v NM North Macedonia ×½ | 0–0 | ✗ Bosnia & Herzegovina 28% |
| 29 May | A Andorra v Iraq ×½ | 0–1 | ✓ Iraq 90% |
| 28 May | Egypt v R Russia ×½ | 1–0 | ✓ Egypt 47% |
| 28 May | ROI Republic of Ireland v Qatar ×½ | 1–0 | ✓ Republic of Ireland 80% |
| 26 May | Morocco v B Burundi ×½ | 5–0 | ✓ Morocco 97% |
| 22 May | Mexico v Ghana ×½ | 2–0 | ✓ Mexico 83% |
✓/✗ is whether the model's most-likely pre-match outcome matched the result; the % is the probability it gave the actual result (so a confident miss reads low). Pure transparency — no cherry-picking.
How every team is arriving
last 5, in form first| Team | Form | Model record | Last result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | WWWWW | 5/6 | W v Argentina 1–0 |
| Argentina | WWWLW | 6/6 | W v Bolivia 4–0 |
| England | WWWLW | 4/6 | W @ France 6–4 |
| Brazil | WWWLW | 4/6 | W @ Australia 4–2 |
| Colombia | WWDWD | 4/6 | D @ Switzerland 0–0 |
| Netherlands | WDWWD | 3/6 | D v Morocco 1–1 |
| Germany | WWWLD | 4/6 | D v Paraguay 1–1 |
| Switzerland | WWWDL | 4/6 | L @ Argentina 1–3 |
| Morocco | WWDWL | 4/6 | L @ France 0–2 |
| Mexico | WWWLD | 4/6 | D v Peru 1–1 |
| Belgium | DWWWL | 3/6 | L @ Spain 1–2 |
| Croatia | WLWWL | 5/6 | L @ Portugal 1–2 |
| Norway | WLWWL | 5/6 | L v England 1–2 |
| Scotland | WWWLL | 5/6 | L v Brazil 0–3 |
| France | WWWLL | 4/6 | L v England 4–6 |
| Ivory Coast | WWLWL | 3/6 | L v Norway 1–2 |
| USA | WLWLW | 3/6 | W v Chile 4–2 |
| Turkey | WWLLW | 2/6 | W @ USA 3–2 |
| Portugal | DWDWL | 4/6 | L v Spain 0–1 |
| Japan | WDWDL | 3/6 | L @ Brazil 1–2 |
| Austria | WWLDL | 5/6 | L @ Spain 0–3 |
| Algeria | WLWDL | 4/6 | L @ Switzerland 0–2 |
| South Korea | WWLLD | 4/6 | D v Venezuela 0–0 |
| Canada | DWLWL | 4/6 | L v Morocco 0–3 |
| Czech Republic | WWLDL | 3/6 | L @ Mexico 0–3 |
| Ecuador | WLDWL | 3/6 | L @ Mexico 0–2 |
| South Africa | WLDWL | 2/6 | L v Canada 0–1 |
| Egypt | DWDDL | 3/6 | L @ Argentina 2–3 |
| Iran | WDDDL | 3/6 | L @ Russia 0–2 |
| Saudi Arabia | WDDLD | 3/6 | D @ Cape Verde 0–0 |
| Sweden | DWLDL | 4/6 | L @ France 0–3 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina | DDLWL | 3/6 | L @ USA 0–2 |
| Ghana | DWDLL | 3/6 | L @ Colombia 0–1 |
| Paraguay | LWDDL | 2/6 | L v France 0–1 |
| Australia | WLDDL | 2/6 | L v Brazil 2–4 |
| Senegal | DLLWL | 5/6 | L @ Belgium 2–3 |
| Curaçao | LWLDL | 5/6 | L v Ivory Coast 0–2 |
| Panama | WDLLL | 4/6 | L v England 0–2 |
| DR Congo | DLWLL | 3/6 | L v Uganda 0–2 |
| Uruguay | DDDDL | 1/6 | L v Spain 0–1 |
| Uzbekistan | LLLLW | 6/6 | W v Syria 4–1 |
| Haiti | WLLLL | 4/6 | L @ Morocco 2–4 |
| Cape Verde | LDDDL | 1/6 | L @ Argentina 2–3 |
| Qatar | LDDLL | 4/6 | L @ Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–3 |
| Iraq | DLLLL | 5/6 | L @ Senegal 0–5 |
| New Zealand | LLDLL | 3/6 | L v Belgium 1–5 |
| Tunisia | LLLLL | 5/6 | L v Netherlands 1–3 |
| Jordan | LLLLL | 5/6 | L v Argentina 1–3 |