Pre-tournament · Full transparency

Road to the World Cup

The warm-ups and run-in for all 48 teams — and, on every game, what our model predicted before kickoff (computed from ratings as they stood before the match — no hindsight). We show the misses too: this is the model's honest track record walking into the tournament, not a highlight reel.

38/55 pre-match calls correct

69% hit rate on the run-in

47 World Cup teams in action

These are all warm-up friendlies — rotated XIs, experiments, little at stake — so even a sharp model is often wrong, and the market itself moves little on them. That's exactly why the model counts them at half weight. Read the hit rate as honesty, not a promise. How ratings work →

Every call on the run-in

since 1 May

Date	Match	Result	Model's pre-match call
7 Jun	Curaçao v A Aruba ×½	4–0	✓ Curaçao 87%
7 Jun	Argentina v H Honduras ×½	2–0	✓ Argentina 92%
6 Jun	Belgium v Tunisia ×½	5–0	✓ Belgium 77%
6 Jun	Portugal v C Chile ×½	2–1	✓ Portugal 76%
6 Jun	USA v Germany ×½	1–2	✓ Germany 45%
6 Jun	Qatar v ES El Salvador ×½	0–0	✗ Qatar 28%
6 Jun	Panama v Bosnia & Herzegovina ×½	1–1	✗ Panama 23%
6 Jun	Brazil v Egypt ×½	2–1	✓ Brazil 70%
6 Jun	J Jamaica v South Africa ×½	0–1	✗ Jamaica 24%
6 Jun	V Venezuela v Turkey ×½	1–2	✓ Turkey 53%
6 Jun	England v New Zealand ×½	1–0	✓ England 92%
6 Jun	B Bolivia v Scotland ×½	0–4	✓ Scotland 38%
6 Jun	Switzerland v Australia ×½	1–1	✗ Switzerland 25%
5 Jun	Canada v ROI Republic of Ireland ×½	1–1	✗ Canada 25%
5 Jun	Haiti v P Peru ×½	1–2	✓ Peru 39%
5 Jun	Paraguay v N Nicaragua ×½	4–0	✓ Paraguay 92%
5 Jun	PR Puerto Rico v Saudi Arabia ×½	0–3	✓ Saudi Arabia 74%
4 Jun	G Guatemala v Czech Republic ×½	1–5	✓ Czech Republic 54%
4 Jun	Iran v M Mali ×½	2–0	✓ Iran 56%
4 Jun	France v Ivory Coast ×½	1–2	✗ France 3%
4 Jun	Mexico v S Serbia ×½	5–1	✓ Mexico 71%
4 Jun	Spain v Iraq ×½	1–1	✗ Spain 5%
4 Jun	Sweden v G Greece ×½	2–2	✗ Sweden 29%
3 Jun	DR Congo v D Denmark ×½	0–0	✗ Denmark 27%
3 Jun	South Korea v ES El Salvador ×½	1–0	✓ South Korea 78%
3 Jun	Netherlands v Algeria ×½	0–1	✗ Netherlands 11%
3 Jun	Panama v DR Dominican Republic ×½	4–2	✓ Panama 87%
2 Jun	W Wales v Ghana ×½	1–1	✗ Wales 24%
2 Jun	Morocco v M Madagascar ×½	4–0	✓ Morocco 93%
2 Jun	Haiti v New Zealand ×½	4–0	✗ New Zealand 29%
2 Jun	Croatia v Belgium ×½	0–2	✗ Croatia 20%
1 Jun	Norway v Sweden ×½	3–1	✓ Norway 75%
1 Jun	Austria v Tunisia ×½	1–0	✓ Austria 67%
1 Jun	Canada v Uzbekistan ×½	2–0	✓ Canada 55%
1 Jun	Colombia v CR Costa Rica ×½	3–1	✓ Colombia 84%
1 Jun	Turkey v NM North Macedonia ×½	4–0	✓ Turkey 86%
31 May	Japan v I Iceland ×½	1–0	✓ Japan 84%
31 May	USA v Senegal ×½	3–2	✓ USA 36%
31 May	Switzerland v Jordan ×½	4–1	✓ Switzerland 69%
31 May	Germany v F Finland ×½	4–0	✓ Germany 87%
31 May	Czech Republic v K Kosovo ×½	2–1	✗ Kosovo 34%
31 May	Cape Verde v S Serbia ×½	3–0	✗ Serbia 18%
31 May	Brazil v Panama ×½	6–2	✓ Brazil 71%
30 May	Mexico v Australia ×½	1–0	✓ Mexico 43%
30 May	Ecuador v Saudi Arabia ×½	2–1	✓ Ecuador 80%
30 May	South Korea v TAT Trinidad and Tobago ×½	5–0	✓ South Korea 75%
30 May	Scotland v Curaçao ×½	4–1	✓ Scotland 77%
29 May	South Africa v N Nicaragua ×½	0–0	✗ South Africa 22%
29 May	Iran v G Gambia ×½	3–1	✓ Iran 71%
29 May	Bosnia & Herzegovina v NM North Macedonia ×½	0–0	✗ Bosnia & Herzegovina 28%
29 May	A Andorra v Iraq ×½	0–1	✓ Iraq 90%
28 May	Egypt v R Russia ×½	1–0	✓ Egypt 47%
28 May	ROI Republic of Ireland v Qatar ×½	1–0	✓ Republic of Ireland 80%
26 May	Morocco v B Burundi ×½	5–0	✓ Morocco 97%
22 May	Mexico v Ghana ×½	2–0	✓ Mexico 83%

✓/✗ is whether the model's most-likely pre-match outcome matched the result; the % is the probability it gave the actual result (so a confident miss reads low). Pure transparency — no cherry-picking.

How every team is arriving

last 5, in form first

Team	Form	Model record	Last result
Argentina	WWWWW	6/6	W v Honduras 2–0
Germany	WWWWW	5/6	W @ USA 2–1
Japan	WWWWW	3/6	W v Iceland 1–0
Austria	WDWWW	4/6	W v Tunisia 1–0
Turkey	DWWWW	4/6	W @ Venezuela 2–1
Morocco	WDWWW	4/6	W v Madagascar 4–0
Belgium	WWDWW	2/6	W v Tunisia 5–0
France	WWWWL	4/6	L v Ivory Coast 1–2
Ivory Coast	WLWWW	2/6	W @ France 2–1
Mexico	DDWWW	4/6	W v Serbia 5–1
Czech Republic	WDDWW	3/6	W @ Guatemala 5–1
Brazil	DLWWW	5/6	W v Egypt 2–1
England	WWDLW	4/6	W v New Zealand 1–0
DR Congo	WLWWD	4/6	D v Denmark 0–0
Iran	DLWWW	4/6	W v Mali 2–0
Norway	WWLDW	3/6	W v Sweden 3–1
Portugal	LWDWW	3/6	W v Chile 2–1
Algeria	WLWDW	3/6	W @ Netherlands 1–0
Senegal	WLWWL	6/6	L @ USA 2–3
South Korea	WLLWW	5/6	W v El Salvador 1–0
Croatia	WWWLL	4/6	L v Belgium 0–2
Colombia	WWLLW	4/6	W v Costa Rica 3–1
Scotland	WLLWW	3/6	W @ Bolivia 4–0
Spain	WDWDD	3/6	D v Iraq 1–1
Paraguay	LWWLW	3/6	W v Nicaragua 4–0
Ecuador	DWDDW	2/6	W v Saudi Arabia 2–1
Canada	WDDWD	2/6	D v Republic of Ireland 1–1
Egypt	DWDWL	4/6	L @ Brazil 1–2
Netherlands	DWWDL	3/6	L v Algeria 0–1
Sweden	DWWLD	3/6	D v Greece 2–2
Panama	DWLWD	3/6	D v Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–1
Australia	LWWLD	4/6	D @ Switzerland 1–1
Iraq	LLWWD	4/6	D @ Spain 1–1
Haiti	WLDWL	3/6	L v Peru 1–2
Uzbekistan	DDWDL	3/6	L @ Canada 0–2
USA	WLLWL	3/6	L v Germany 1–2
Switzerland	DLDWD	2/6	D v Australia 1–1
Uruguay	WDLDD	2/6	D @ Algeria 0–0
Cape Verde	DDLDW	2/6	W v Serbia 3–0
Jordan	WLDDL	4/6	L @ Switzerland 1–4
South Africa	LDLDW	3/6	W @ Jamaica 1–0
Tunisia	DWDLL	3/6	L @ Belgium 0–5
Bosnia & Herzegovina	DDDDD	0/6	D @ Panama 1–1
Curaçao	DLLLW	4/6	W v Aruba 4–0
Saudi Arabia	LLLLW	6/6	W @ Puerto Rico 3–0
New Zealand	LLWLL	3/6	L @ England 0–1
Qatar	LDLLD	2/6	D v El Salvador 0–0
Ghana	LLLLD	5/6	D @ Wales 1–1

Road to the World Cup

Tonight's warm-ups

Every call on the run-in

How every team is arriving