Model vs market
Where we disagree
Every priced match, ranked by how far the model's probability sits from the de-vigged market price. A positive Δ means the model rates the outcome more likely than the market (the value direction); a negative Δ means the market rates it higher — often a sign the model is missing something, not the other way round. These are the model's gaps after per-confederation anchoring (which already removes the bulk of the old cross-confederation skew); our published call then blends each match toward the market, so the edges we actually bet are smaller still. This is a transparency view, not a bet list: large gaps are usually model blind spots, occasionally value.
144 priced markets
74 model > market
70 market > model
+37.5% biggest gap · Turkey v USA
| Match | Closest call | Model | Market | Δ | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey vs USA | Turkey win | 72.1% | 34.6% | +37.5% | |
| Ecuador vs Germany | Germany win | 26.4% | 57.9% | −31.5% | |
| USA vs Paraguay | Paraguay win | 51.9% | 23.3% | +28.7% | |
| Germany vs Curaçao | Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 82.5% | −26.0% | |
| Ghana vs Panama | Ghana win | 22.8% | 47.0% | −24.2% | |
| USA vs Australia | USA win | 32.6% | 56.1% | −23.5% | |
| Brazil vs Haiti | Over 2.5 goals | 55.0% | 77.6% | −22.6% | |
| Austria vs Jordan | Austria win | 54.5% | 74.9% | −20.4% | |
| Brazil vs Morocco | Brazil win | 40.2% | 60.4% | −20.2% | |
| Portugal vs DR Congo | Portugal win | 59.1% | 77.3% | −18.2% | |
| Germany vs Ivory Coast | Germany win | 46.7% | 63.4% | −16.7% | |
| Belgium vs Iran | Belgium win | 53.0% | 69.6% | −16.6% | |
| Ivory Coast vs Ecuador | Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 31.5% | +16.5% | |
| Brazil vs Haiti | Brazil win | 77.1% | 93.4% | −16.3% | |
| Ivory Coast vs Ecuador | Ecuador win | 56.4% | 40.8% | +15.6% | |
| Germany vs Curaçao | Germany win | 80.0% | 95.5% | −15.6% | |
| Switzerland vs Canada | Switzerland win | 61.0% | 45.8% | +15.2% | |
| Colombia vs Portugal | Portugal win | 30.4% | 44.4% | −14.0% | |
| Czech Republic vs Mexico | Mexico win | 38.3% | 51.6% | −13.3% | |
| Austria vs Jordan | Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 60.3% | −12.5% | |
| Portugal vs Uzbekistan | Portugal win | 66.0% | 78.4% | −12.5% | |
| Portugal vs Uzbekistan | Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% | 63.0% | −11.9% | |
| Norway vs France | France win | 42.1% | 53.4% | −11.3% | |
| Spain vs Cape Verde | Over 2.5 goals | 60.4% | 71.7% | −11.2% | |
| England vs Ghana | England win | 84.7% | 73.5% | +11.2% | |
| Senegal vs Iraq | Senegal win | 57.0% | 68.1% | −11.1% | |
| Belgium vs Egypt | Belgium win | 47.4% | 58.4% | −10.9% | |
| Portugal vs DR Congo | Over 2.5 goals | 48.9% | 59.9% | −10.9% | |
| Norway vs Senegal | Norway win | 56.6% | 45.9% | +10.6% | |
| Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia | Cape Verde win | 46.8% | 36.1% | +10.6% | |
| Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | Switzerland win | 72.2% | 61.7% | +10.5% | |
| South Korea vs Czech Republic | Czech Republic win | 44.8% | 34.3% | +10.5% | |
| Qatar vs Switzerland | Switzerland win | 90.2% | 79.8% | +10.4% | |
| Haiti vs Scotland | Scotland win | 55.0% | 65.4% | −10.4% | |
| Czech Republic vs South Africa | Czech Republic win | 59.1% | 48.8% | +10.3% | |
| Croatia vs Ghana | Croatia win | 68.5% | 58.5% | +10.1% | |
| Panama vs Croatia | Croatia win | 55.1% | 64.9% | −9.8% | |
| Uruguay vs Spain | Spain win | 69.0% | 59.4% | +9.6% | |
| Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay | Uruguay win | 75.5% | 66.0% | +9.4% | |
| Croatia vs Ghana | Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 43.0% | +9.3% | |
| Canada vs Qatar | Canada win | 82.4% | 73.6% | +8.8% | |
| Curaçao vs Ivory Coast | Ivory Coast win | 71.2% | 79.7% | −8.5% | |
| USA vs Paraguay | Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | 41.8% | +8.5% | |
| Czech Republic vs South Africa | Over 2.5 goals | 49.4% | 41.1% | +8.3% | |
| Scotland vs Morocco | Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 39.7% | +7.9% | |
| Jordan vs Algeria | Algeria win | 53.8% | 61.7% | −7.8% | |
| Germany vs Ivory Coast | Over 2.5 goals | 45.1% | 52.9% | −7.7% | |
| Iraq vs Norway | Over 2.5 goals | 54.5% | 61.9% | −7.3% | |
| France vs Iraq | France win | 80.8% | 88.0% | −7.1% | |
| Sweden vs Tunisia | Sweden win | 42.9% | 50.0% | −7.1% | |
| New Zealand vs Egypt | Over 2.5 goals | 49.2% | 42.2% | +7.1% | |
| Egypt vs Iran | Over 2.5 goals | 43.5% | 36.4% | +7.1% | |
| Algeria vs Austria | Austria win | 35.5% | 42.5% | −7.0% | |
| Scotland vs Morocco | Morocco win | 55.1% | 48.3% | +6.9% | |
| Switzerland vs Canada | Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 42.8% | +6.8% | |
| France vs Iraq | Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 63.0% | −6.7% | |
| Scotland vs Brazil | Brazil win | 60.2% | 66.8% | −6.6% | |
| New Zealand vs Belgium | Belgium win | 69.9% | 76.5% | −6.6% | |
| Argentina vs Algeria | Argentina win | 63.4% | 69.9% | −6.5% | |
| Mexico vs South Korea | Mexico win | 59.1% | 52.7% | +6.4% | |
| Turkey vs USA | Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 47.0% | +6.3% | |
| Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | Over 2.5 goals | 53.3% | 47.1% | +6.2% | |
| Canada vs Qatar | Over 2.5 goals | 54.6% | 48.4% | +6.2% | |
| Jordan vs Argentina | Over 2.5 goals | 55.5% | 61.6% | −6.1% | |
| Iran vs New Zealand | Over 2.5 goals | 47.7% | 41.9% | +5.8% | |
| Paraguay vs Australia | Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 40.2% | +5.8% | |
| Ecuador vs Germany | Over 2.5 goals | 44.3% | 50.0% | −5.7% | |
| Colombia vs DR Congo | Over 2.5 goals | 50.2% | 44.8% | +5.5% | |
| Mexico vs South Africa | Over 2.5 goals | 50.4% | 45.0% | +5.4% | |
| Australia vs Turkey | Turkey win | 59.7% | 54.5% | +5.2% | |
| Tunisia vs Japan | Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 42.3% | +5.2% | |
| South Africa vs South Korea | Over 2.5 goals | 46.7% | 41.6% | +5.0% | |
| Spain vs Saudi Arabia | Spain win | 94.6% | 89.6% | +5.0% | |
| Iraq vs Norway | Norway win | 75.7% | 80.6% | −4.9% | |
| Jordan vs Argentina | Draw | 15.7% | 10.9% | +4.8% | |
| Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | Canada win | 58.8% | 54.1% | +4.8% | |
| Brazil vs Morocco | Over 2.5 goals | 42.9% | 47.6% | −4.8% | |
| Morocco vs Haiti | Over 2.5 goals | 53.6% | 58.4% | −4.8% | |
| Netherlands vs Japan | Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | 49.7% | −4.7% | |
| Paraguay vs Australia | Paraguay win | 48.8% | 44.1% | +4.7% | |
| Norway vs France | Over 2.5 goals | 43.3% | 47.9% | −4.6% | |
| France vs Senegal | France win | 63.3% | 67.7% | −4.3% | |
| New Zealand vs Belgium | Over 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 57.0% | −4.3% | |
| Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia | Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 41.6% | +4.3% | |
| Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay | Over 2.5 goals | 54.8% | 50.4% | +4.3% | |
| Ecuador vs Curaçao | Ecuador win | 86.1% | 81.8% | +4.2% | |
| Turkey vs Paraguay | Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 40.6% | +4.2% | |
| Argentina vs Austria | Argentina win | 62.8% | 58.6% | +4.2% | |
| DR Congo vs Uzbekistan | Over 2.5 goals | 44.3% | 40.2% | +4.1% | |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar | Over 2.5 goals | 51.1% | 47.1% | +4.0% | |
| Mexico vs South Korea | Over 2.5 goals | 45.9% | 42.0% | +4.0% | |
| Ghana vs Panama | Over 2.5 goals | 46.7% | 42.8% | +3.9% | |
| Panama vs England | Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 57.8% | −3.8% | |
| Belgium vs Iran | Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | 50.9% | −3.8% | |
| Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 42.4% | +3.6% | |
| South Korea vs Czech Republic | Over 2.5 goals | 44.9% | 41.3% | +3.6% | |
| Panama vs England | Draw | 17.9% | 14.5% | +3.4% | |
| Curaçao vs Ivory Coast | Over 2.5 goals | 53.4% | 56.8% | −3.4% | |
| Belgium vs Egypt | Over 2.5 goals | 45.4% | 48.7% | −3.3% | |
| Mexico vs South Africa | Mexico win | 72.2% | 68.9% | +3.3% | |
| Uruguay vs Spain | Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 48.4% | +3.3% | |
| Sweden vs Tunisia | Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 41.6% | +2.9% | |
| Turkey vs Paraguay | Turkey win | 46.1% | 43.3% | +2.9% | |
| Netherlands vs Japan | Netherlands win | 46.1% | 48.9% | −2.8% | |
| Iran vs New Zealand | Iran win | 53.5% | 50.7% | +2.8% | |
| Qatar vs Switzerland | Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% | 58.5% | +2.7% | |
| Scotland vs Brazil | Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 51.8% | −2.7% | |
| Colombia vs DR Congo | Colombia win | 63.6% | 66.3% | −2.7% | |
| Australia vs Turkey | Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 46.5% | +2.6% | |
| Haiti vs Scotland | Over 2.5 goals | 48.1% | 50.4% | −2.4% | |
| Spain vs Cape Verde | Draw | 8.6% | 6.3% | +2.4% | |
| England vs Croatia | Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 45.7% | +2.3% | |
| Egypt vs Iran | Iran win | 29.9% | 27.6% | +2.3% | |
| Netherlands vs Sweden | Netherlands win | 56.4% | 58.6% | −2.3% | |
| Uzbekistan vs Colombia | Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 50.3% | +2.2% | |
| New Zealand vs Egypt | Egypt win | 58.9% | 56.8% | +2.1% | |
| Spain vs Saudi Arabia | Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | 65.5% | −2.1% | |
| South Africa vs South Korea | South Korea win | 49.6% | 47.5% | +2.0% | |
| Senegal vs Iraq | Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 50.6% | −2.0% | |
| Japan vs Sweden | Over 2.5 goals | 45.0% | 43.0% | +2.0% | |
| France vs Senegal | Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 51.9% | −1.9% | |
| Netherlands vs Sweden | Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 50.0% | −1.8% | |
| Uruguay vs Cape Verde | Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 49.5% | +1.8% | |
| Uruguay vs Cape Verde | Uruguay win | 65.9% | 67.6% | −1.7% | |
| England vs Croatia | Croatia win | 17.5% | 19.1% | −1.6% | |
| Tunisia vs Japan | Japan win | 53.2% | 54.8% | −1.6% | |
| Jordan vs Algeria | Over 2.5 goals | 47.6% | 49.1% | −1.5% | |
| DR Congo vs Uzbekistan | Uzbekistan win | 28.3% | 29.8% | −1.5% | |
| Argentina vs Austria | Over 2.5 goals | 49.8% | 48.4% | +1.4% | |
| Morocco vs Haiti | Draw | 18.7% | 17.4% | +1.3% | |
| Japan vs Sweden | Draw | 28.7% | 27.4% | +1.2% | |
| England vs Ghana | Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 57.0% | +1.1% | |
| Tunisia vs Netherlands | Draw | 22.9% | 21.9% | +1.0% | |
| Uzbekistan vs Colombia | Uzbekistan win | 9.8% | 10.6% | −0.9% | |
| Panama vs Croatia | Over 2.5 goals | 47.9% | 48.8% | −0.9% | |
| Argentina vs Algeria | Over 2.5 goals | 50.0% | 50.7% | −0.7% | |
| Ecuador vs Curaçao | Over 2.5 goals | 58.9% | 59.6% | −0.7% | |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar | Draw | 23.0% | 22.4% | +0.6% | |
| Tunisia vs Netherlands | Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 50.0% | +0.6% | |
| Norway vs Senegal | Over 2.5 goals | 48.0% | 48.5% | −0.5% | |
| USA vs Australia | Over 2.5 goals | 46.4% | 45.9% | +0.4% | |
| Czech Republic vs Mexico | Over 2.5 goals | 42.9% | 43.0% | −0.2% | |
| Colombia vs Portugal | Over 2.5 goals | 42.7% | 42.8% | −0.1% | |
| Algeria vs Austria | Over 2.5 goals | 41.9% | 41.9% | −0.0% |