Model vs market
Where we disagree
Every priced match, ranked by how far the model's probability sits from the de-vigged market price. A positive Δ means the model rates the outcome more likely than the market (the value direction); a negative Δ means the market rates it higher — often a sign the model is missing something, not the other way round. These are the model's gaps after per-confederation anchoring (which already removes the bulk of the old cross-confederation skew); our published call then blends each match toward the market, so the edges we actually bet are smaller still. This is a transparency view, not a bet list: large gaps are usually model blind spots, occasionally value.
52 priced markets
12 model > market
40 market > model
+40.6% biggest gap · Turkey v USA
| Match | Closest call | Model | Market | Δ | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey vs USA | Turkey win | 67.1% | 26.5% | +40.6% | |
| Tunisia vs Netherlands | Netherlands win | 61.6% | 88.1% | −26.5% | |
| Ecuador vs Germany | Germany win | 30.5% | 50.4% | −19.9% | |
| Curaçao vs Ivory Coast | Ivory Coast win | 67.1% | 86.5% | −19.5% | |
| Portugal vs Uzbekistan | Portugal win | 67.0% | 84.3% | −17.3% | |
| Tunisia vs Netherlands | Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 66.3% | −16.5% | |
| Scotland vs Brazil | Brazil win | 55.5% | 71.6% | −16.1% | |
| Switzerland vs Canada | Switzerland win | 55.3% | 39.3% | +16.0% | |
| Panama vs Croatia | Croatia win | 49.2% | 64.9% | −15.7% | |
| Senegal vs Iraq | Senegal win | 60.2% | 75.3% | −15.0% | |
| Morocco vs Haiti | Morocco win | 70.1% | 84.2% | −14.0% | |
| South Africa vs South Korea | South Korea win | 46.1% | 60.0% | −13.9% | |
| Paraguay vs Australia | Draw | 28.8% | 42.6% | −13.9% | |
| Paraguay vs Australia | Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 31.4% | +13.5% | |
| Norway vs France | France win | 42.1% | 55.2% | −13.1% | |
| Curaçao vs Ivory Coast | Over 2.5 goals | 51.9% | 64.7% | −12.8% | |
| Colombia vs Portugal | Portugal win | 34.9% | 46.9% | −11.9% | |
| Morocco vs Haiti | Over 2.5 goals | 52.5% | 64.4% | −11.9% | |
| Ecuador vs Germany | Over 2.5 goals | 42.9% | 53.8% | −11.0% | |
| Portugal vs Uzbekistan | Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 62.3% | −10.8% | |
| Egypt vs Iran | Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% | 33.9% | +10.7% | |
| Norway vs France | Over 2.5 goals | 43.3% | 54.0% | −10.7% | |
| Panama vs England | England win | 69.9% | 79.9% | −10.0% | |
| Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia | Saudi Arabia win | 22.4% | 32.1% | −9.7% | |
| Japan vs Sweden | Over 2.5 goals | 44.7% | 54.1% | −9.5% | |
| Panama vs England | Over 2.5 goals | 52.3% | 60.7% | −8.5% | |
| Uruguay vs Spain | Spain win | 73.1% | 64.9% | +8.2% | |
| Croatia vs Ghana | Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% | 44.8% | +6.9% | |
| Colombia vs DR Congo | Colombia win | 56.7% | 63.6% | −6.8% | |
| Czech Republic vs Mexico | Mexico win | 44.3% | 51.1% | −6.8% | |
| Colombia vs DR Congo | Over 2.5 goals | 48.2% | 41.5% | +6.7% | |
| Croatia vs Ghana | Croatia win | 66.5% | 59.9% | +6.6% | |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar | Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 58.0% | −6.6% | |
| Egypt vs Iran | Draw | 28.9% | 35.1% | −6.2% | |
| Japan vs Sweden | Japan win | 44.2% | 50.1% | −5.9% | |
| Panama vs Croatia | Over 2.5 goals | 46.1% | 51.6% | −5.5% | |
| New Zealand vs Belgium | Over 2.5 goals | 56.3% | 61.1% | −4.9% | |
| Scotland vs Brazil | Over 2.5 goals | 47.7% | 52.6% | −4.9% | |
| Turkey vs USA | Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 56.4% | −4.9% | |
| Colombia vs Portugal | Over 2.5 goals | 41.3% | 45.8% | −4.5% | |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar | Bosnia & Herzegovina win | 64.1% | 67.9% | −3.8% | |
| Switzerland vs Canada | Over 2.5 goals | 47.8% | 44.2% | +3.5% | |
| New Zealand vs Belgium | Draw | 15.2% | 12.8% | +2.5% | |
| Senegal vs Iraq | Over 2.5 goals | 49.6% | 52.0% | −2.4% | |
| DR Congo vs Uzbekistan | Draw | 28.5% | 26.2% | +2.3% | |
| England vs Ghana | Over 2.5 goals | 57.5% | 59.7% | −2.3% | |
| England vs Ghana | Ghana win | 3.7% | 5.3% | −1.6% | |
| Czech Republic vs Mexico | Over 2.5 goals | 44.6% | 45.7% | −1.1% | |
| Uruguay vs Spain | Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 52.0% | +1.0% | |
| DR Congo vs Uzbekistan | Over 2.5 goals | 45.3% | 46.1% | −0.8% | |
| Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia | Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 47.7% | −0.7% | |
| South Africa vs South Korea | Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 46.1% | −0.4% |