Model vs market
Where the model disagrees with the market
How to read this. Our call is the
confederation-anchored model probability blended toward the market. The green
Edge % is that call vs. the de-vigged consensus
price — how far our number differs from the market's fair price. The small raw
figure next to it is the model's full pre-blend disagreement: edge = trust × raw gap,
where trust shrinks as the model strays from the market, so a big raw gap can still leave a
small edge. Best price is the highest odds any tracked book
offers, and EV is the model's expected value per unit
at that best price. Sort by Edge to find the biggest disagreements; sort by EV to
see where the model rates the price most generous (long prices inflate EV — read it with
care). This is analysis of where our numbers diverge from the market — not betting advice.
| Match | Selection | Our call | Edge | Best price | EV | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tunisia vs Netherlands | Under 2.5 goals | 38.8% | +5.1% raw +16.5% | 2.78 Nordic Bet | +7.8% | |
| Switzerland vs Canada | Switzerland win | 44.4% | +5.1% raw +16.0% | 2.60 Bet Victor | +15.4% |