Line-shopping
Value edges
How to read this. Our call is the
confederation-anchored model probability blended toward the market. The green
Edge % is that call vs. the de-vigged consensus
price — the staked edge you'd actually bet. The small raw
figure next to it is the model's full pre-blend disagreement: staked edge = trust ×
raw gap, where trust shrinks as the model strays from the market, so a big raw gap can
still leave a small (or no) staked edge. We size off the staked edge, never the raw gap. Best price is the highest odds any tracked book
offers, and EV is the expected return per unit
at that best price. Sort by Edge to find genuine disagreements; sort by EV to
see what pays most at the price you can actually take (longshots inflate EV — size with
Kelly , not gut). Stake is the 25%-Kelly suggestion
off a 100.00 EUR bankroll, capped at 5%.
3 open edges
6.03 EUR total 25%-Kelly stake
6.0% of 100.00 EUR bankroll
That's the suggested stake on every surfaced edge added up — the ceiling, not a portfolio to back wholesale. These bets are correlated and over-commit it; treat the list as the universe to select from. Each stake is 25% Kelly, capped at 5%.
| Match | Selection | Our call | Edge | Best price | EV | Stake | Kickoff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivory Coast vs Ecuador | Over 2.5 goals | 36.6% | +5.1% raw +16.5% | 2.92 Betsson | +6.8% | 0.89 EUR | |
| Ivory Coast vs Ecuador | Ecuador win | 45.9% | +5.1% raw +15.6% | 2.54 Betfair | +16.5% | 2.67 EUR | |
| Switzerland vs Canada | Switzerland win | 50.8% | +5.1% raw +15.2% | 2.20 Betfair | +11.8% | 2.47 EUR |