FIFA World Cup 2026 · Simulation
Tournament simulation
The model's match probabilities, run forward through the entire tournament — group round-robins, the eight-best-thirds qualification, and the full knockout bracket — many times over. Each number is the share of simulations in which a team reaches that stage.
20,000 simulations Spain most likely champion updated 4 Aug 2026, 15:05 UTC
Read this as the model's opinion, not a tip. Outrights carry the
highest margin in the market and these probabilities compound one model over a
month, so the tails are soft and we hold no edge claim here. The sim runs on
the confederation-anchored ratings (the same source correction the match pages
use), so it no longer over-rates teams from isolated confederations — but unlike a
priced match it has no per-game market blend, so treat it as "what the model thinks the
bracket looks like." Knockout paths use a simplified third-place allocation that
respects the official slot rules.
Most likely champions
P(win tournament)Every team
group → trophy| Team | Grp | Win grp | Qualify | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Spain | H | 88.2% | 99.9% | 78.0% | 60.0% | 47.0% | 34.7% | 24.9% |
 France | I | 52.9% | 95.8% | 69.8% | 47.5% | 30.9% | 17.6% | 10.1% |
 England | L | 70.2% | 97.8% | 69.1% | 45.8% | 28.4% | 17.4% | 9.4% |
 Argentina | J | 62.4% | 95.5% | 59.8% | 41.4% | 25.9% | 14.9% | 7.8% |
 Norway | I | 35.7% | 91.4% | 59.9% | 36.9% | 21.5% | 11.1% | 5.5% |
 Morocco | C | 44.7% | 91.5% | 61.1% | 36.9% | 20.4% | 10.4% | 5.0% |
 Brazil | C | 40.8% | 89.8% | 58.5% | 34.3% | 18.1% | 8.5% | 3.9% |
 Colombia | K | 42.6% | 90.0% | 56.2% | 29.0% | 16.0% | 8.2% | 3.8% |
 Turkey | D | 58.7% | 93.1% | 62.4% | 36.4% | 16.0% | 8.2% | 3.6% |
 Portugal | K | 42.7% | 89.9% | 55.8% | 28.4% | 15.7% | 8.2% | 3.6% |
 Switzerland | B | 67.3% | 99.0% | 64.9% | 36.0% | 18.5% | 8.6% | 3.6% |
 Ecuador | E | 45.0% | 92.9% | 57.4% | 28.9% | 15.7% | 7.4% | 3.2% |
 Belgium | G | 52.4% | 94.7% | 57.3% | 29.5% | 12.3% | 5.3% | 2.2% |
 Netherlands | F | 51.4% | 90.2% | 44.9% | 25.6% | 11.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% |
 Germany | E | 34.6% | 89.2% | 49.9% | 23.3% | 11.7% | 4.9% | 2.0% |
 Mexico | A | 58.5% | 94.5% | 50.7% | 20.7% | 8.3% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
 Croatia | L | 21.1% | 83.7% | 39.6% | 15.4% | 6.5% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
 Uruguay | H | 10.4% | 87.2% | 34.6% | 17.0% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
 Algeria | J | 17.8% | 74.3% | 27.7% | 13.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
 Egypt | G | 29.7% | 86.6% | 42.7% | 18.4% | 6.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
 Paraguay | D | 20.7% | 71.5% | 35.3% | 15.0% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
 Ivory Coast | E | 19.2% | 78.0% | 35.4% | 14.5% | 6.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
 Senegal | I | 10.3% | 64.8% | 30.9% | 13.9% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
 Austria | J | 16.7% | 71.2% | 25.6% | 12.1% | 4.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
 Canada | B | 28.1% | 95.4% | 46.7% | 17.3% | 5.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
 Japan | F | 25.2% | 76.4% | 29.1% | 12.2% | 4.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
 Czech Republic | A | 27.2% | 81.5% | 36.4% | 12.2% | 3.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
 Scotland | C | 11.1% | 58.7% | 26.2% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
 DR Congo | K | 10.1% | 55.8% | 21.4% | 7.2% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
 Iran | G | 16.5% | 74.7% | 29.1% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
 Panama | L | 7.4% | 59.5% | 19.9% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
 Sweden | F | 13.9% | 58.2% | 18.2% | 6.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
 Australia | D | 9.7% | 50.1% | 19.1% | 6.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
 South Korea | A | 10.0% | 57.8% | 20.0% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
 USA | D | 10.9% | 54.5% | 17.8% | 5.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
 Uzbekistan | K | 4.5% | 32.7% | 9.2% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 Haiti | C | 3.4% | 28.4% | 8.9% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 Bosnia & Herzegovina | B | 4.4% | 59.8% | 16.7% | 4.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 Tunisia | F | 9.5% | 46.2% | 12.7% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | — |
 Jordan | J | 3.1% | 27.5% | 5.8% | 1.7% | 0.3% | <0.1% | — |
 Cape Verde | H | 1.2% | 44.1% | 10.5% | 2.9% | 0.5% | <0.1% | — |
 South Africa | A | 4.3% | 33.1% | 8.2% | 1.4% | 0.2% | <0.1% | — |
 Ghana | L | 1.4% | 21.9% | 4.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% | — |
 Iraq | I | 1.1% | 15.6% | 4.1% | 1.0% | 0.2% | <0.1% | — |
 Curaçao | E | 1.2% | 14.2% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | <0.1% | — |
 Saudi Arabia | H | 0.2% | 16.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% | <0.1% | — | — |
 New Zealand | G | 1.5% | 16.5% | 2.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% | — | — |
 Qatar | B | 0.2% | 8.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | <0.1% | — | — |