FIFA World Cup 2026 · Simulation
Tournament simulation
The model's match probabilities, run forward through the entire tournament — group round-robins, the eight-best-thirds qualification, and the full knockout bracket — many times over. Each number is the share of simulations in which a team reaches that stage.
20,000 simulations Spain most likely champion updated 6 Jun 2026, 19:23 UTC
Read this as the model's opinion, not a tip. Outrights carry the
highest margin in the market and these probabilities compound one model over a
month, so the tails are soft and we hold no edge claim here. The sim runs on
the confederation-anchored ratings (the same source correction the match pages
use), so it no longer over-rates teams from isolated confederations — but unlike a
priced match it has no per-game market blend, so treat it as "what the model thinks the
bracket looks like." Knockout paths use a simplified third-place allocation that
respects the official slot rules.
Most likely champions
P(win tournament)Every team
group → trophy| Team | Grp | Win grp | Qualify | R16 | QF | SF | Final | Champion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Spain | H | 85.4% | 99.9% | 77.8% | 59.1% | 46.2% | 33.8% | 23.6% |
 Argentina | J | 70.1% | 97.0% | 62.6% | 45.7% | 30.2% | 18.7% | 10.9% |
 France | I | 54.0% | 95.9% | 69.4% | 45.9% | 30.1% | 16.6% | 9.2% |
 England | L | 71.8% | 98.3% | 69.2% | 47.2% | 28.5% | 16.7% | 8.6% |
 Brazil | C | 51.1% | 94.4% | 65.6% | 40.8% | 23.4% | 11.8% | 5.9% |
 Norway | I | 36.1% | 91.8% | 60.2% | 35.8% | 20.9% | 10.6% | 5.0% |
 Colombia | K | 50.5% | 93.3% | 63.9% | 36.6% | 20.2% | 10.5% | 4.9% |
 Ecuador | E | 53.6% | 96.7% | 65.1% | 35.5% | 21.2% | 10.2% | 4.9% |
 Morocco | C | 36.7% | 90.6% | 58.3% | 34.7% | 18.2% | 8.3% | 3.8% |
 Turkey | D | 56.4% | 93.6% | 63.6% | 36.8% | 16.1% | 8.0% | 3.5% |
 Switzerland | B | 71.9% | 99.2% | 65.2% | 34.4% | 16.8% | 7.6% | 3.3% |
 Portugal | K | 37.8% | 89.6% | 56.2% | 28.0% | 14.4% | 7.0% | 3.0% |
 Belgium | G | 52.4% | 92.4% | 55.9% | 28.0% | 11.0% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
 Germany | E | 31.3% | 91.3% | 51.1% | 23.5% | 11.6% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
 Netherlands | F | 51.7% | 90.7% | 43.6% | 24.8% | 11.1% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
 Uruguay | H | 13.5% | 90.8% | 37.6% | 19.6% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
 Croatia | L | 21.9% | 87.1% | 40.7% | 16.0% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
 Paraguay | D | 26.8% | 79.6% | 43.8% | 19.2% | 7.2% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
 Austria | J | 13.9% | 70.8% | 23.6% | 11.5% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
 Japan | F | 26.8% | 78.0% | 30.4% | 13.4% | 4.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
 Algeria | J | 13.1% | 69.1% | 23.1% | 10.9% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
 Senegal | I | 8.6% | 61.6% | 27.8% | 11.7% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
 Ivory Coast | E | 14.7% | 78.0% | 33.9% | 12.6% | 4.5% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
 Mexico | A | 49.8% | 92.6% | 45.3% | 16.3% | 5.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
 Egypt | G | 25.3% | 79.0% | 36.8% | 13.6% | 4.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
 Scotland | C | 10.3% | 63.1% | 28.2% | 11.6% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
 Czech Republic | A | 32.4% | 83.8% | 38.5% | 12.6% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
 Canada | B | 22.8% | 92.5% | 40.7% | 12.8% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
 Iran | G | 17.9% | 70.0% | 28.2% | 9.2% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
 Australia | D | 10.3% | 54.2% | 20.9% | 6.6% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
 DR Congo | K | 7.8% | 50.1% | 17.9% | 5.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
 Sweden | F | 14.2% | 60.1% | 18.6% | 6.3% | 1.7% | 0.4% | <0.1% |
 Panama | L | 5.2% | 52.9% | 14.3% | 3.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
 South Korea | A | 13.9% | 63.5% | 23.1% | 6.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
 Tunisia | F | 7.3% | 42.0% | 10.6% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 Bosnia & Herzegovina | B | 5.0% | 62.1% | 17.5% | 4.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 USA | D | 6.6% | 42.3% | 11.6% | 2.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 Uzbekistan | K | 3.9% | 33.4% | 9.7% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% |
 Cape Verde | H | 0.9% | 37.9% | 8.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Jordan | J | 2.9% | 29.9% | 6.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 Iraq | I | 1.3% | 18.3% | 4.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | <0.1% | <0.1% |
 New Zealand | G | 4.3% | 30.6% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | <0.1% | — |
 Haiti | C | 1.8% | 20.9% | 5.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% | <0.1% | — |
 Ghana | L | 1.2% | 22.6% | 3.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | <0.1% | — |
 South Africa | A | 4.0% | 31.7% | 7.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% | — | — |
 Saudi Arabia | H | 0.1% | 17.7% | 2.9% | 0.4% | <0.1% | — | — |
 Qatar | B | 0.2% | 9.9% | 1.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | — | — |
| C Curaçao | E | 0.4% | 9.0% | 1.4% | 0.2% | <0.1% | — | — |