Model vs market
our call = 44% model + 56% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | South Korea | Draw | Czech Republic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 26.5% | 28.8% | 44.8% |
| Market (de-vig) | 35.6% | 30.1% | 34.3% |
| Our call | 31.6% | 29.5% | 38.8% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from South Korea's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | South Korea | Push | Czech Republic |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10.3% | — | 89.6% |
| -1 | 10.3% | 16.1% | 73.5% |
| -0.5 | 26.5% | — | 73.5% |
| 0 | 26.5% | 28.8% | 44.8% |
| +0.5 | 55.3% | — | 44.8% |
| +1 | 55.3% | 22.5% | 22.3% |
| +1.5 | 77.7% | — | 22.3% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.8% | 28.2% |
| 2.5 | 44.9% | 55.1% |
| 3.5 | 23.7% | 76.3% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| South Korea or Draw | 55.3% |
| Draw or Czech Republic | 73.5% |
| South Korea or Czech Republic (no draw) | 71.2% |
| DNB — South Korea | 37.2% |
| DNB — Czech Republic | 62.8% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.7% |
| 0–1 | 10.9% |
| 0–0 | 9.5% |
| 1–2 | 9.0% |
| 0–2 | 8.6% |
| 1–0 | 7.7% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 37 books · as ofAll 37 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | South Korea | Draw | Czech Republic | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 2.80 (best price) | 3.30 (best price) | 2.96 (best price) | 2.28 (best price) | 1.68 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 2.76 | 3.16 | 2.83 | 2.24 | 1.67 |
| 888sport | 2.62 | 2.90 | 2.70 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 2.62 | 3.20 | 2.70 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 2.68 | 3.13 | 2.85 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.62 | 3.15 | 2.78 | — | — |
| Betfair | 2.80 (best price) | 3.20 | 2.96 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 2.80 (best price) | 3.20 | 2.96 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.62 | 3.20 | 2.75 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.76 | 3.11 | 2.85 | 2.28 (best price) | 1.68 (best price) |
| Betsson | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.28 (best price) | 1.65 |
| Betway | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.70 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | — | — |
| Casumo | 2.70 | 3.15 | 2.75 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.65 | 3.15 | 2.80 | 2.15 | 1.60 |
| Coolbet | 2.70 | 3.30 (best price) | 2.80 | — | — |
| Coral | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.75 | — | — |
| Everygame | 2.70 | 3.10 | 2.80 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 2.65 | 3.10 | 2.70 | 2.20 | 1.64 |
| GTbets | 2.65 | 3.25 | 2.77 | 2.26 | 1.64 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.75 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 2.70 | 3.15 | 2.75 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.70 | 3.15 | 2.75 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 2.76 | 3.16 | 2.83 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.60 | 3.06 | 2.71 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.28 (best price) | 1.65 |
| Paddy Power | 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.80 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 2.73 | 3.13 | 2.88 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 2.70 | 3.15 | 2.75 | 2.08 | 1.55 |
| Sky Bet | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.80 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 2.80 (best price) | 3.20 | 2.96 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.75 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.75 | — | — |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 2.90 | 2.70 | 2.25 | 1.60 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.55 | 3.15 | 2.75 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.55 | 3.10 | 2.70 | — | — |
Analysis
Group A second game on opening night. Two teams who play similar tempo but very different shapes.
The night-cap of the opening day. Group A’s second pair plays at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara, on neutral ground for both — neither team gets the venue boost.
South Korea are the second seed of Group A and one of Asia’s two real heavyweights at this point. They built around Son Heung-min for the better part of a decade and the cycle that produced this squad has emphasised press-resistance and quick vertical play — fewer crosses, more half-space combinations. Their AFC qualifying record this cycle was excellent, which the Elo (~1716) captures.
Czech Republic are the dark horse profile — never the favourites, never embarrassed, always organised. The block is mid-low, the transitions go through whoever the in-form striker is, and they’re disciplined enough on dead balls to keep tight matches even-money for stretches. The Elo (~1626) probably understates them on a knockout-stage day; group stage is where they can sleepwalk a little.
Model view. Korea 54% / 25% / 21%, xG 1.63–0.92, O2.5 47%, BTTS 48%. Tight but Korea-leaning. Without the home boost (neutral venue), the gap is pure quality differential.
Betting angle. I would not chase the ML here — 1.85 to 1.95 is too short for a 54% model edge after the vig. Where there might be real value:
- Czech +0.5 Asian handicap if priced above ~1.85 (combined draw + Czech win = 46%, fair odds ~2.17)
- Under 2.5 at any price above 2.00 (model 53%, fair ~1.89 — bookies often shade these high for tournament openers)
- BTTS-Yes is a coin-flip per the model — only play if priced above ~2.05
Avoid: Korea -1 handicap (only ~28% model probability, never a positive-edge spot at typical pricing).
Verify before betting
- Son Heung-min's role — touchline winger or false-9?
- Czech keeper choice — has knock-on for crossing tendency
- Stadium altitude effects in Guadalajara (~1,560m)
- Recent European Qualifying form for Czechia — was the Euro 2024 run a one-off?
Team news
South Korea · Czech RepublicNo recent news mentioning South Korea or Czech Republic.
Bets on this match
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