Model vs market
our call = 44% model + 56% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Czech Republic | Draw | South Africa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 59.1% | 24.6% | 16.3% |
| Market (de-vig) | 48.8% | 28.2% | 23.0% |
| Our call | 53.3% | 26.7% | 20.1% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Czech Republic's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Czech Republic | Push | South Africa |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34.7% | — | 65.3% |
| -1 | 34.7% | 24.3% | 40.9% |
| -0.5 | 59.1% | — | 40.9% |
| 0 | 59.1% | 24.6% | 16.3% |
| +0.5 | 83.7% | — | 16.3% |
| +1 | 83.7% | 10.9% | 5.4% |
| +1.5 | 94.6% | — | 5.4% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.2% | 24.8% |
| 2.5 | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| 3.5 | 27.5% | 72.5% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Czech Republic or Draw | 83.7% |
| Draw or South Africa | 40.9% |
| Czech Republic or South Africa (no draw) | 75.4% |
| DNB — Czech Republic | 78.4% |
| DNB — South Africa | 21.6% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–0 | 11.8% |
| 1–1 | 11.7% |
| 2–0 | 11.5% |
| 2–1 | 9.7% |
| 0–0 | 8.0% |
| 3–0 | 6.9% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 30 books · as ofAll 30 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Czech Republic | Draw | South Africa | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 2.03 (best price) | 3.50 (best price) | 4.40 (best price) | 2.28 (best price) | 1.66 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 2.03 (best price) | 3.33 | 4.01 | 2.27 | 1.66 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.80 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.95 | 3.22 | 3.93 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.96 | 3.45 | 4.40 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.96 | 3.45 | 4.40 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.00 | 3.30 | 4.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.96 | 3.38 | 4.37 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.95 | 3.25 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 2.00 | 3.30 | 4.10 | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Coral | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.90 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.95 | 3.35 | 4.10 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.96 | 3.25 | 4.00 | 2.25 | 1.62 |
| GTbets | 2.00 | 3.29 | 4.07 | 2.28 (best price) | 1.61 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.90 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 2.00 | 3.30 | 4.10 | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.00 | 3.30 | 4.10 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.97 | 3.24 | 3.90 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.97 | 3.18 | 3.85 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.80 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.94 | 3.28 | 4.01 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 2.00 | 3.30 | 4.10 | 2.12 | 1.53 |
| Sky Bet | 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.90 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.96 | 3.50 (best price) | 4.40 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.97 | 3.30 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.02 | 3.35 | 4.20 | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.00 | 3.35 | 4.10 | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.98 | 3.15 | 3.90 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.20 | 1.62 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.90 | 3.15 | 3.65 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.88 | 3.10 | 3.55 | — | — |
Analysis
A Group A matchday-2 coin-flip with three nearly even outcomes — South Africa are live at a long price.
Group A, matchday 2 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. With Mexico the clear group favourite, this is effectively the fight for the runner-up and best-third lanes — both sides badly need something.
Czech Republic sit at an Elo of 1626, only just above their opponent. The squad is a solid mid-tier European outfit: organised, set-piece dangerous, but light on a true game-breaker since the Schick-led attack thinned out. They are nominal home side here and modestly favoured, but the model does not see a gulf.
South Africa (Elo 1604) are quick and athletic but have been inconsistent in front of goal. The model rates them only 22 points below the Czechs, which makes the bookmakers’ 4.00 on the away win look generous. Bafana Bafana’s transition game travels well, and a draw keeps their qualification math alive.
Model view. Czech Republic 41% / 27% / 32%, xG 1.36–1.19, BTTS 52%, Under 2.5 53%. Genuinely close to a three-way toss-up.
Betting angle. The model’s one flagged edge is on the away side: South Africa at 4.00 implies 25% but the model gives them 32% — a 7.5% edge and the cleanest value on the board.
- South Africa ML at 4.00 — model 32%, fair ~3.08; the price overcompensates for the Czech “home” label
- Draw at 3.30 — model 27%, fair ~3.70, live in a tight, evenly-matched game
- BTTS yes around 1.85 — model 52%, two leaky-but-willing attacks
Avoid: Czech -0.5 / -1 lines (only 41% to win outright), Under at short prices despite the 53% — there is BTTS upside here.
This is a three-outcome game the market is pricing as a clearer home edge than the model sees. South Africa at 4.00 is the disagreement worth taking.
Verify before betting
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — this is the loser-can't-afford-another-slip pivot in Group A
- Czech central midfield legs in the Atlanta humidity
- South Africa's pace on the counter — their best route to points here
- Lineup rotation after the openers, especially Czech full-backs
Team news
Czech Republic · South AfricaNo recent news mentioning Czech Republic or South Africa.
Bets on this match
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