Model vs market
our call = 53% model + 47% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Mexico | Draw | South Korea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 59.1% | 25.3% | 15.6% |
| Market (de-vig) | 52.7% | 26.9% | 20.3% |
| Our call | 56.1% | 26.1% | 17.8% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Mexico's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Mexico | Push | South Korea |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34.1% | — | 65.9% |
| -1 | 34.1% | 25.0% | 40.9% |
| -0.5 | 59.1% | — | 40.9% |
| 0 | 59.1% | 25.3% | 15.6% |
| +0.5 | 84.4% | — | 15.6% |
| +1 | 84.4% | 10.7% | 4.9% |
| +1.5 | 95.1% | — | 4.9% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.5% | 27.5% |
| 2.5 | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| 3.5 | 24.5% | 75.5% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Mexico or Draw | 84.4% |
| Draw or South Korea | 40.9% |
| Mexico or South Korea (no draw) | 74.7% |
| DNB — Mexico | 79.1% |
| DNB — South Korea | 20.9% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–0 | 13.1% |
| 2–0 | 12.2% |
| 1–1 | 11.9% |
| 2–1 | 9.5% |
| 0–0 | 9.1% |
| 3–0 | 7.0% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 30 books · as ofAll 30 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Mexico | Draw | South Korea | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.86 (best price) | 3.60 (best price) | 4.80 (best price) | 2.23 (best price) | 1.68 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.86 (best price) | 3.58 | 4.42 | 2.23 (best price) | 1.68 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.83 | 3.25 | 4.20 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.78 | 3.38 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.84 | 3.60 (best price) | 4.60 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.84 | 3.60 (best price) | 4.60 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.60 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.83 | 3.58 | 4.75 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.33 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.82 | 3.45 | 4.70 | 2.16 | 1.62 |
| Coral | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.83 | 3.60 (best price) | 4.50 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.60 | 2.20 | 1.64 |
| GTbets | 1.80 | 3.55 | 4.63 | 2.18 | 1.66 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.50 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.82 | 3.45 | 4.70 | 2.16 | 1.62 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.82 | 3.45 | 4.70 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.81 | 3.48 | 4.30 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.83 | 3.28 | 4.40 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 3.49 | 4.41 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.82 | 3.45 | 4.70 | 2.08 | 1.56 |
| Sky Bet | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.86 (best price) | 3.60 (best price) | 4.40 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.80 | 3.45 | 4.65 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.80 (best price) | 2.16 | 1.62 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.80 (best price) | 2.16 | 1.62 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.80 | 3.35 | 4.40 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.25 | 4.20 | 2.15 | 1.62 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.74 | 3.30 | 4.10 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.72 | 3.25 | 4.00 | — | — |
Analysis
Group A's heavyweight clash — likely decides top spot. Model is roughly fair on a home-leaning game.
Group A, matchday 2 at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara. Two of the group’s three strongest sides meet with first place very much on the line — a near-home tie for Mexico in front of a hostile-to-Korea crowd.
Mexico (Elo 1736) are the group favourite and play this one essentially at home, with altitude and crowd both in their favour. The 4-3-3 is functional rather than spectacular, but at this venue they are a tough out. The model makes them clear but not overwhelming favourites.
South Korea sit just 20 Elo points back at 1716 — closer than the bracket seeding suggests. Son and a press-and-transition style give them a real puncher’s chance, but travelling into Guadalajara’s conditions is a genuine handicap against a settled host.
Model view. Mexico 53% / 25% / 22%, xG 1.62–0.93, BTTS 49%, Under 2.5 53%. Home-leaning but live for both other results.
Betting angle. No edge flagged in the data — the market price (Mexico ~1.83) sits right on the model. This is an efficient line, so look to the derivatives rather than the headline.
- Under 2.5 at 1.62 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; price is short but the cautious-Mexico script supports it
- Draw at 3.45 — model 25%, fair ~4.00, the value side of a three-way market if you want a position
- Korea +0.5 AH around 1.90 — combined Korea-win + draw = 47%, fair ~2.13
Avoid: Mexico ML under 1.80 (no edge), Mexico -1.5 AH (well under coin-flip), over 2.5 at the implied prices.
This is an efficiently-priced top-spot decider — there’s no ML edge, so the value is on the draw and the unders. Treat Mexico’s home advantage as already in the number.
Verify before betting
- Mexico's matchday-1 result and whether top spot is already in reach
- Guadalajara altitude and a partisan home crowd for El Tri
- South Korea's Son-led attack — is he starting and central?
- Mexico rotation if they opened with a comfortable win
Team news
Mexico · South KoreaBets on this match
No bets placed.