Model vs market
our call = 37% model + 63% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Czech Republic | Draw | Mexico |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 31.8% | 29.9% | 38.3% |
| Market (de-vig) | 21.6% | 26.8% | 51.6% |
| Our call | 25.4% | 27.9% | 46.6% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Czech Republic's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Czech Republic | Push | Mexico |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13.3% | — | 86.7% |
| -1 | 13.3% | 18.5% | 68.2% |
| -0.5 | 31.8% | — | 68.2% |
| 0 | 31.8% | 29.9% | 38.3% |
| +0.5 | 61.7% | — | 38.3% |
| +1 | 61.7% | 20.8% | 17.4% |
| +1.5 | 82.6% | — | 17.4% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| 2.5 | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| 3.5 | 22.0% | 78.0% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Czech Republic or Draw | 61.7% |
| Draw or Mexico | 68.2% |
| Czech Republic or Mexico (no draw) | 70.1% |
| DNB — Czech Republic | 45.4% |
| DNB — Mexico | 54.6% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.2% |
| 0–1 | 10.4% |
| 0–0 | 10.3% |
| 1–0 | 9.2% |
| 1–2 | 8.2% |
| 2–1 | 7.4% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 28 books · as ofAll 28 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Czech Republic | Draw | Mexico | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 4.83 (best price) | 3.65 (best price) | 1.95 (best price) | 2.15 (best price) | 1.70 (best price) |
| 888sport | 4.20 | 3.25 | 1.85 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 4.25 | 3.42 | 1.78 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 4.20 | 3.40 | 1.90 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.83 (best price) | 3.60 | 1.82 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 4.75 | 3.40 | 1.75 | — | — |
| Casumo | 4.10 | 3.45 | 1.87 | 2.12 | 1.65 |
| Coral | 4.20 | 3.40 | 1.91 | — | — |
| Everygame | 4.60 | 3.65 (best price) | 1.80 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 4.10 | 3.45 | 1.87 | 2.15 (best price) | 1.66 |
| GTbets | 4.30 | 3.39 | 1.95 (best price) | 2.11 | 1.70 (best price) |
| Ladbrokes | 4.00 | 3.40 | 1.91 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 4.10 | 3.45 | 1.87 | 2.12 | 1.65 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.10 | 3.45 | 1.87 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 4.10 | 3.45 | 1.87 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 4.30 | 3.45 | 1.82 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 4.20 | 3.34 | 1.85 | 2.06 | 1.68 |
| Paddy Power | 4.20 | 3.40 | 1.85 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 4.52 | 3.54 | 1.76 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 4.10 | 3.45 | 1.87 | 2.04 | 1.57 |
| Sky Bet | 4.20 | 3.40 | 1.85 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 4.50 | 3.50 | 1.92 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.10 | 3.45 | 1.87 | 2.12 | 1.65 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.10 | 3.45 | 1.87 | 2.12 | 1.65 |
| Unibet (UK) | 4.25 | 3.40 | 1.80 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 4.10 | 3.45 | 1.87 | — | — |
| William Hill | 4.20 | 3.25 | 1.85 | 2.05 | 1.70 (best price) |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.85 | 3.30 | 1.72 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.70 | 3.15 | 1.66 | — | — |
Analysis
Group A finale — Mexico are big favourites at altitude. Czechs may need a result to survive.
Group A, matchday 3 at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. A final-round fixture where Mexico hold most of the cards — playing at altitude in front of their own crowd — while the Czechs may arrive needing a win they’re not favoured to get.
Czech Republic (Elo 1626) are the underdog here by some distance. A disciplined, set-piece-reliant side, but asking them to chase a result at 2,240m against the hosts is a stiff brief. The model gives them just 18% to win.
Mexico (Elo 1736) get every situational edge: altitude, crowd, and a settled shape. xG of 1.71–0.84 in their favour reflects control. If they’ve already topped the group, watch for rotation — the only real path to a Czech upset.
Model view. Mexico 18% / 24% / 58% (home/draw/away), xG 0.84–1.71, BTTS 46%, Under 2.5 53%. A clear away (Mexico) lean.
Betting angle. No edge flagged — the market (Mexico ~1.86) matches the model. The wildcard is rotation: a qualified Mexico resting starters is the scenario that injects value into the Czech and draw prices, but that’s a lineup read, not a model read.
- Under 2.5 at 1.65 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; altitude tends to suppress late scoring
- Draw at 3.44 — model 24%, fair ~4.17, the value pocket if Mexico are rotating
- Czech +0.5 AH around 1.95 — combined draw + Czech win = 42%, fair ~2.38
Avoid: Mexico -1.5 AH unless the lineup is full-strength, Czech ML at short prices, over 2.5 at the implied number.
Mexico are correctly favoured and the line is fair — the only edge is a lineup edge. Confirm El Tri’s team news before backing the favourite or fading them on rotation.
Verify before betting
- Group A standings going in — does either side already know its fate?
- Mexico City altitude (2,240m) and a de facto home crowd for El Tri
- Czech qualification scenario — must-win could force them open
- Mexico rotation if already qualified as group winner
Team news
Czech Republic · MexicoBets on this match
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