Model vs market
our call = 44% model + 56% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Qatar | Draw | Switzerland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 1.4% | 8.4% | 90.2% |
| Market (de-vig) | 6.4% | 13.8% | 79.8% |
| Our call | 4.2% | 11.4% | 84.4% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Qatar's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Qatar | Push | Switzerland |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 0.2% | — | 99.8% |
| -1 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 98.6% |
| -0.5 | 1.4% | — | 98.6% |
| 0 | 1.4% | 8.4% | 90.2% |
| +0.5 | 9.8% | — | 90.2% |
| +1 | 9.8% | 17.1% | 73.2% |
| +1.5 | 26.8% | — | 73.2% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.6% | 17.4% |
| 2.5 | 61.2% | 38.8% |
| 3.5 | 38.9% | 61.1% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Qatar or Draw | 9.8% |
| Draw or Switzerland | 98.6% |
| Qatar or Switzerland (no draw) | 91.6% |
| DNB — Qatar | 1.5% |
| DNB — Switzerland | 98.5% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 0–2 | 18.0% |
| 0–3 | 17.5% |
| 0–4 | 12.8% |
| 0–1 | 12.1% |
| 0–5 | 7.4% |
| 0–0 | 4.5% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 37 books · as ofAll 37 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Qatar | Draw | Switzerland | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 15.50 (best price) | 7.00 (best price) | 1.27 (best price) | 1.68 (best price) | 2.28 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 14.50 | 6.55 | 1.24 | 1.67 | 2.23 |
| 888sport | 12.00 | 5.75 | 1.22 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 15.00 | 6.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 11.00 | 6.25 | 1.24 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 12.25 | 6.40 | 1.21 | — | — |
| Betfair | 15.50 (best price) | 7.00 (best price) | 1.25 | — | — |
| Betfair | 15.50 (best price) | 7.00 (best price) | 1.25 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.22 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 12.85 | 6.80 | 1.24 | 1.68 (best price) | 2.28 (best price) |
| Betsson | 12.50 | 5.85 | 1.27 (best price) | 1.68 (best price) | 2.22 |
| Betway | 9.00 | 6.00 | 1.22 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 12.00 | 5.50 | 1.22 | — | — |
| Casumo | 14.00 | 6.10 | 1.23 | 1.61 | 2.18 |
| Codere (IT) | 12.00 | 6.20 | 1.24 | 1.60 | 2.15 |
| Coolbet | 14.00 | 6.25 | 1.25 | — | — |
| Coral | 12.00 | 6.00 | 1.22 | — | — |
| Everygame | 12.00 | 6.50 | 1.25 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.22 | 1.63 | 2.23 |
| GTbets | 12.52 | 6.02 | 1.24 | 1.67 | 2.17 |
| Ladbrokes | 12.00 | 6.00 | 1.22 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 14.00 | 6.10 | 1.23 | 1.61 | 2.18 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 14.00 | 6.10 | 1.23 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 15.00 | 6.55 | 1.23 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 11.50 | 5.80 | 1.22 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 12.50 | 5.85 | 1.27 (best price) | 1.68 (best price) | 2.22 |
| Paddy Power | 13.00 | 6.50 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 11.87 | 6.66 | 1.25 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 14.00 | 6.10 | 1.23 | 1.55 | 2.10 |
| Sky Bet | 11.00 | 6.50 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 15.50 (best price) | 6.80 | 1.25 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 13.00 | 6.40 | 1.23 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 14.00 | 6.50 | 1.25 | 1.61 | 2.18 |
| Unibet (SE) | 14.00 | 6.25 | 1.23 | 1.61 | 2.18 |
| Unibet (UK) | 12.00 | 5.75 | 1.23 | — | — |
| William Hill | 12.00 | 5.80 | 1.22 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
| Winamax (DE) | 10.50 | 6.50 | 1.22 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 10.00 | 6.25 | 1.21 | — | — |
Analysis
Switzerland are the model's biggest favourite of Day 3 — and probably correctly so.
Group B’s third game, played on neutral ground in Santa Clara. No home advantage on either side, just the Elo gap doing the work.
Qatar had an embarrassing home World Cup in 2022 — zero points, lowest goal differential of any host in tournament history — and the Asian Cup since hasn’t fully washed away the memory. Rating ~1501 (essentially the baseline) reflects a side that beats the Asian minnows and loses to anyone competent. They will not embarrass themselves the way they did in 2022; they will also not be Switzerland’s competitive equal.
Switzerland are the prototype of a tournament side that punches at exactly their seed. Round of 16 in 2022, round of 16 in 2018, round of 16 in 2014 — the floor is high, the ceiling is the quarters. Defensive shape under their current cycle is a back four with two destroyer-type sixes, transitions through Embolo and the wide pace. Boring is not a problem for Switzerland; boring is the plan.
Model view. Switzerland 77% / 17% / 6%, xG 2.13–0.42, O2.5 47%, BTTS 30%. Big Elo gap, no venue advantage to either side, classic top-seed-vs-fourth-pot setup.
Betting angle. The market will price Switzerland in the 1.40–1.50 range on the moneyline; that’s slightly long on the model’s 77%, but the truth is probably closer to 70% so the market is roughly fair. The interesting fields:
- Switzerland -1.5 AH at 2.00+ — model gives ~55% on the spread, fair price ~1.82
- Under 3.5 goals at 1.40+ — Switzerland matches finish in this range about 75% of the time
- Qatar draw no bet at 4.50+ if you fancy them keeping it tight — 17% draw probability, so fair ~5.88
Avoid: BTTS — the model says 30%, the market will price BTTS-No too short to take.
Verify before betting
- Xhaka and Rodriguez ages — both 30+, fitness at start of tournament matters
- Qatar's competitive form since their 2022 group exit
- Granit Xhaka card history — Qatar will try to draw fouls
- Santa Clara afternoon heat — kickoff is 12:00 local
Team news
Qatar · SwitzerlandBets on this match
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