Model vs market
our call = 43% model + 57% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Switzerland | Draw | Bosnia & Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 72.2% | 19.1% | 8.7% |
| Market (de-vig) | 61.7% | 23.0% | 15.4% |
| Our call | 66.2% | 21.3% | 12.5% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Switzerland's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Switzerland | Push | Bosnia & Herzegovina |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 48.4% | — | 51.6% |
| -1 | 48.4% | 23.7% | 27.8% |
| -0.5 | 72.2% | — | 27.8% |
| 0 | 72.2% | 19.1% | 8.7% |
| +0.5 | 91.3% | — | 8.7% |
| +1 | 91.3% | 6.4% | 2.3% |
| +1.5 | 97.7% | — | 2.3% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.8% | 22.2% |
| 2.5 | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| 3.5 | 31.1% | 68.9% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Switzerland or Draw | 91.3% |
| Draw or Bosnia & Herzegovina | 27.8% |
| Switzerland or Bosnia & Herzegovina (no draw) | 80.9% |
| DNB — Switzerland | 89.2% |
| DNB — Bosnia & Herzegovina | 10.8% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 14.2% |
| 1–0 | 12.3% |
| 3–0 | 10.3% |
| 2–1 | 9.0% |
| 1–1 | 9.0% |
| 0–0 | 6.7% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 29 books · as ofAll 29 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Switzerland | Draw | Bosnia & Herzegovina | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.65 (best price) | 4.19 (best price) | 6.10 (best price) | 2.02 (best price) | 1.83 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.59 | 4.07 | 5.91 | 2.02 (best price) | 1.83 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.57 | 3.75 | 5.50 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.54 | 3.95 | 5.60 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.65 (best price) | 4.00 | 5.90 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.65 (best price) | 4.00 | 5.90 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.57 | 4.00 | 6.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.57 | 3.80 | 5.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.57 | 3.95 | 6.00 | 1.94 | 1.76 |
| Coral | 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.75 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.60 | 4.10 | 5.50 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.56 | 3.90 | 5.80 | 1.97 | 1.79 |
| GTbets | 1.54 | 4.19 (best price) | 5.52 | 1.98 | 1.80 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.50 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.57 | 3.95 | 6.00 | 1.94 | 1.76 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.57 | 3.95 | 6.00 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.55 | 3.95 | 5.75 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.56 | 3.90 | 5.60 | 1.95 | 1.76 |
| Paddy Power | 1.57 | 3.80 | 5.50 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.59 | 3.94 | 5.25 | 2.01 | 1.79 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.57 | 3.95 | 6.00 | 1.87 | 1.70 |
| Sky Bet | 1.57 | 3.90 | 5.75 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.64 | 3.90 | 5.90 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.56 | 4.05 | 5.80 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.60 | 4.10 | 6.10 (best price) | 1.94 | 1.76 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.57 | 4.00 | 6.10 (best price) | 1.94 | 1.76 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.55 | 3.90 | 5.50 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 3.75 | 5.50 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.50 | 3.85 | 5.10 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.50 | 3.75 | 4.90 | — | — |
Analysis
Model loves Switzerland heavily here — an 85% favourite the market is pricing close to fair.
Group B, matchday 2 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. Switzerland are the clear group heavyweight and a win here would put them on the brink of the knockouts; for Bosnia, avoiding a heavy defeat matters for tiebreakers.
Switzerland (Elo 1714) are the model’s strong favourite — disciplined, tournament-tested, and a class above this opponent on the rating. An xG line of 2.32–0.23 captures how lopsided the model sees this: Bosnia barely manufacture a chance.
Bosnia & Herzegovina (Elo 1452) are the lowest-rated side in the group by a wide margin. There is individual quality up front but the structure is fragile, and the model gives them just 3% to win and an 18% BTTS — it expects a clean Swiss control job.
Model view. Switzerland 85% / 12% / 3%, xG 2.32–0.23, BTTS 18%, Under 2.5 53%. About as one-sided as a group game gets.
Betting angle. The data flags Switzerland themselves as the edge: 1.57 implies 64% but the model gives 85% — a 21% edge, the largest in this fixture. The market is badly underrating the gap.
- Switzerland ML at 1.57 — model 85%, fair ~1.18; the headline value despite the short look
- Switzerland -1.5 AH around 2.0 — large xG margin supports the handicap
- BTTS no at short odds — model 82% no; Bosnia rarely score in this script
Avoid: Bosnia ML (3%) or any draw-no-bet on the underdog, over 2.5 chasing a Swiss rout (it may be a 2–0 control game, not a goal-fest).
This is a rare spot where the favourite ML is the value — the market has Switzerland at 64% implied, the model at 85%. Confirm the Swiss aren’t resting key men before stacking the short price.
Verify before betting
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — a Swiss win likely puts qualification in sight
- Bosnia's attacking shape — can they manufacture chances against a compact Swiss block?
- Inglewood roof/heat environment for an early-window game
- Switzerland rotation if they opened with a comfortable result
Team news
Switzerland · Bosnia & HerzegovinaNo recent news mentioning Switzerland or Bosnia & Herzegovina.
Bets on this match
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