Model vs market
our call = 47% model + 53% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Canada | Draw | Qatar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 82.4% | 13.8% | 3.8% |
| Market (de-vig) | 73.6% | 18.1% | 8.4% |
| Our call | 77.7% | 16.1% | 6.2% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Canada's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Canada | Push | Qatar |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 60.7% | — | 39.3% |
| -1 | 60.7% | 21.7% | 17.6% |
| -0.5 | 82.4% | — | 17.6% |
| 0 | 82.4% | 13.8% | 3.8% |
| +0.5 | 96.2% | — | 3.8% |
| +1 | 96.2% | 3.1% | 0.7% |
| +1.5 | 99.3% | — | 0.7% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.5% | 21.5% |
| 2.5 | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| 3.5 | 32.3% | 67.8% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Canada or Draw | 96.2% |
| Draw or Qatar | 17.6% |
| Canada or Qatar (no draw) | 86.2% |
| DNB — Canada | 95.6% |
| DNB — Qatar | 4.4% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 17.3% |
| 3–0 | 14.3% |
| 1–0 | 13.6% |
| 4–0 | 8.8% |
| 2–1 | 6.9% |
| 0–0 | 6.2% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 30 books · as ofAll 30 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Canada | Draw | Qatar | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.38 (best price) | 5.50 (best price) | 11.00 (best price) | 2.01 (best price) | 1.86 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.33 | 5.04 | 10.90 | 1.98 | 1.86 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.30 | 4.60 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.29 | 4.90 | 9.75 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.34 | 5.40 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.34 | 5.40 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.33 | 4.60 | 11.00 (best price) | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.32 | 5.50 (best price) | 10.60 | 2.01 (best price) | 1.83 |
| BoyleSports | 1.30 | 4.50 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.34 | 4.90 | 10.00 | 1.88 | 1.81 |
| Coral | 1.33 | 5.00 | 9.50 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.33 | 5.00 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.33 | 4.80 | 10.00 | 1.92 | 1.83 |
| GTbets | 1.38 (best price) | 4.89 | 9.30 | 1.99 | 1.79 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.33 | 5.00 | 9.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.34 | 4.90 | 10.00 | 1.88 | 1.81 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.34 | 4.90 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.30 | 4.85 | 10.50 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.30 | 4.80 | 9.50 | 1.93 | 1.78 |
| Paddy Power | 1.29 | 5.00 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.31 | 4.84 | 9.26 | 1.95 | 1.84 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.34 | 4.90 | 10.00 | 1.82 | 1.74 |
| Sky Bet | 1.30 | 5.25 | 9.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.35 | 5.40 | 9.20 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.31 | 5.10 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.35 | 5.00 | 10.50 | 1.88 | 1.81 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.34 | 5.00 | 10.50 | 1.88 | 1.81 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.30 | 4.75 | 10.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 4.60 | 10.00 | 1.95 | 1.75 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.28 | 4.70 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.26 | 4.60 | 7.75 | — | — |
Analysis
Co-hosts Canada are huge favourites at home in Vancouver — model 88%, but the price is already short.
Group B, matchday 2 at BC Place in Vancouver. Co-host Canada play at home with a chance to all but lock up a knockout spot; Qatar are fighting to stay mathematically alive.
Canada (Elo 1717) get the full home package in Vancouver and are the model’s overwhelming favourite — xG 2.40–0.15, an 88% win probability. The athletic, direct attack should overwhelm a side rated 216 Elo points lower.
Qatar (Elo 1501) are the group’s weakest team on the rating and travel into a hostile venue. The model gives them 2% and a 13% BTTS — it expects them shut out and overrun.
Model view. Canada 88% / 11% / 2%, xG 2.40–0.15, BTTS 13%, Under 2.5 53%. Heavily one-sided.
Betting angle. The data flags Canada as the edge: 1.33 implies 75% but the model gives 88% — a 12.4% edge. Even at a short price the favourite is value.
- Canada ML at 1.33 — model 88%, fair ~1.14; the flagged value
- Canada -1.5 AH around 1.7–1.8 — the 2.40–0.15 xG margin supports a comfortable multi-goal win
- BTTS no short — model 87% no, Qatar rarely threaten here
Avoid: Qatar ML or +1.5 chase (2% to win, often beaten by 2+), over 2.5 as a goal-fest play — a 3–0 control game keeps it tight on the total.
Canada are correctly massive favourites and the ML still carries an edge at 1.33. The only thing to verify is co-host rotation if qualification is already comfortable.
Verify before betting
- Canada's matchday-1 result — a win here likely seals qualification
- Vancouver home crowd and pitch familiarity for the co-hosts
- Qatar's defensive setup — can they keep it respectable?
- Canada rotation risk if they're already well-placed
Team news
Canada · QatarBets on this match
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