The model's pre-kickoff call was Canada win at 80.3%, and it gave the actual result (Canada win) 80.3%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 41 books · as ofAll 41 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Canada | Draw | Qatar | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.33 (best price) | 6.00 (best price) | 13.00 (best price) | 1.70 (best price) | 2.26 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.33 (best price) | 5.69 | 11.30 | 1.68 | 2.26 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.29 | 5.00 | 9.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.29 | 5.50 | 9.50 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.29 | 5.60 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.30 | 6.00 (best price) | 11.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.31 | 6.00 (best price) | 12.50 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.31 | 6.00 (best price) | 12.50 | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.22 | 4.50 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.30 | 5.00 | 11.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.31 | 5.67 | 11.25 | 1.70 (best price) | 2.25 |
| Betsson | 1.31 | 5.55 | 11.00 | 1.68 | 2.22 |
| Betway | 1.25 | 5.75 | 11.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.25 | 5.00 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.28 | 5.60 | 11.00 | 1.68 | 2.14 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.29 | 5.60 | 10.00 | 1.62 | 2.11 |
| Coolbet | 1.30 | 5.90 | 11.75 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.30 | 5.75 | 9.50 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.28 | 5.50 | 11.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.27 | 5.40 | 10.50 | 1.68 | 2.14 |
| GTbets | 1.31 | 5.44 | 9.91 | 1.69 | 2.12 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.28 | 5.75 | 9.50 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.28 | 5.60 | 11.00 | 1.68 | 2.14 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.28 | 5.60 | 11.00 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.27 | 5.40 | 10.50 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.32 | 6.00 (best price) | 12.50 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.30 | 5.30 | 9.60 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.31 | 5.55 | 11.00 | 1.68 | 2.22 |
| Paddy Power | 1.25 | 5.50 | 11.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.31 | 5.95 | 11.25 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.30 | 5.80 | 11.50 | 1.64 | 2.10 |
| Sky Bet | 1.25 | 6.00 (best price) | 10.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.31 | 6.00 (best price) | 13.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.25 | 5.80 | 12.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.30 | 6.00 (best price) | 11.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.30 | 5.80 | 12.00 | 1.68 | 2.14 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.30 | 5.80 | 12.00 | 1.70 (best price) | 2.18 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.27 | 5.75 | 12.00 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.27 | 5.40 | 10.50 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.30 | 5.00 | 9.50 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.29 | 5.80 | 10.50 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.28 | 5.70 | 10.00 | — | — |
Analysis
Co-hosts Canada are huge favourites at home in Vancouver — model 88%, but the price is already short.
Group B, matchday 2 at BC Place in Vancouver. Co-host Canada play at home with a chance to all but lock up a knockout spot; Qatar are fighting to stay mathematically alive.
Canada (Elo 1717) get the full home package in Vancouver and are the model’s overwhelming favourite — xG 2.40–0.15, an 88% win probability. The athletic, direct attack should overwhelm a side rated 216 Elo points lower.
Qatar (Elo 1501) are the group’s weakest team on the rating and travel into a hostile venue. The model gives them 2% and a 13% BTTS — it expects them shut out and overrun.
Model view. Canada 88% / 11% / 2%, xG 2.40–0.15, BTTS 13%, Under 2.5 53%. Heavily one-sided.
Model vs market. The data flags Canada as the edge: 1.33 implies 75% but the model gives 88% — a 12.4% edge. Even at a short price the favourite is value.
- Canada ML at 1.33 — model 88%, fair ~1.14; the flagged value
- Canada -1.5 AH around 1.7–1.8 — the 2.40–0.15 xG margin supports a comfortable multi-goal win
- BTTS no short — model 87% no, Qatar rarely threaten here
Avoid: Qatar ML or +1.5 chase (2% to win, often beaten by 2+), over 2.5 as a goal-fest play — a 3–0 control game keeps it tight on the total.
Canada are correctly massive favourites and the ML still carries an edge at 1.33. The only thing to verify is co-host rotation if qualification is already comfortable.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Canada's matchday-1 result — a win here likely seals qualification
- Vancouver home crowd and pitch familiarity for the co-hosts
- Qatar's defensive setup — can they keep it respectable?
- Canada rotation risk if they're already well-placed