Model vs market
our call = 32% model + 68% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Switzerland | Draw | Canada |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 55.3% | 26.0% | 18.7% |
| Market (de-vig) | 39.3% | 31.1% | 29.6% |
| Our call | 44.4% | 29.5% | 26.1% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Switzerland's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Switzerland | Push | Canada |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31.2% | — | 68.8% |
| -1 | 31.2% | 24.2% | 44.7% |
| -0.5 | 55.3% | — | 44.7% |
| 0 | 55.3% | 26.0% | 18.7% |
| +0.5 | 81.3% | — | 18.7% |
| +1 | 81.3% | 12.3% | 6.4% |
| +1.5 | 93.6% | — | 6.4% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 2.5 | 47.8% | 52.3% |
| 3.5 | 26.1% | 74.0% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Switzerland or Draw | 81.3% |
| Draw or Canada | 44.7% |
| Switzerland or Canada (no draw) | 74.0% |
| DNB — Switzerland | 74.8% |
| DNB — Canada | 25.2% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.4% |
| 1–0 | 11.8% |
| 2–0 | 10.8% |
| 2–1 | 9.6% |
| 0–0 | 8.5% |
| 3–0 | 6.1% |
Edges vs market
value spotted| Selection | Our call | Market | Odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland win | 44.4% · raw 55.3% | 39.3% | 2.44 | +5.1% raw +16.0% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 41 books · as ofAll 41 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Switzerland | Draw | Canada | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 2.60 (best price) | 3.20 (best price) | 3.40 (best price) | 2.18 (best price) | 1.82 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 2.54 | 3.10 | 3.33 | 2.14 | 1.76 |
| 888sport | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.90 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 2.60 (best price) | 3.10 | 2.80 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 2.50 | 3.08 | 3.23 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.42 | 3.05 | 3.25 | — | — |
| Betfair | 2.54 | 3.20 (best price) | 3.40 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 2.54 | 3.20 (best price) | 3.40 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.25 | 2.63 | 2.88 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.50 | 3.10 | 3.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.50 | 3.08 | 3.23 | — | — |
| Betsson | 2.48 | 3.20 (best price) | 3.15 | 2.12 | 1.72 |
| Betway | 2.40 | 2.88 | 3.20 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 2.38 | 3.00 | 3.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 2.43 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.10 | 1.70 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.44 | 3.10 | 3.15 | 2.03 | 1.67 |
| Coolbet | 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.37 | 2.13 | 1.77 |
| Coral | 2.45 | 3.10 | 3.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 2.50 | 2.85 | 3.30 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 2.40 | 2.95 | 3.20 | 2.10 | 1.70 |
| GTbets | 2.46 | 3.13 | 3.24 | 2.07 | 1.73 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.45 | 3.10 | 3.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 2.43 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.10 | 1.70 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.43 | 3.00 | 3.25 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.38 | 2.95 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 2.54 | 3.15 | 3.35 | 2.18 (best price) | 1.82 (best price) |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.42 | 3.04 | 3.14 | 2.05 | 1.68 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.45 | 3.15 | 3.25 | 2.10 | 1.75 |
| Paddy Power | 2.40 | 3.00 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | 2.92 | 3.38 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 2.38 | 2.95 | 3.20 | 2.06 | 1.67 |
| Sky Bet | 2.38 | 3.00 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 2.54 | 3.20 (best price) | 3.40 (best price) | — | — |
| Tipico | 2.40 | 3.00 | 3.30 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.40 | 3.10 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.50 | 3.10 | 3.35 | 2.10 | 1.70 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.50 | 3.10 | 3.35 | 2.14 | 1.73 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.50 | 3.10 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 2.38 | 2.95 | 3.20 | — | — |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.05 | 1.70 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.35 | 3.05 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.35 | 3.05 | 3.05 | — | — |
Analysis
Group B's top-spot decider — a true coin-flip the model rates dead even, with Canada the slight value side.
Group B, matchday 3 at BC Place in Vancouver. The two clear class sides of the group meet to settle top spot, with Canada once again enjoying home advantage at the venue.
Switzerland (Elo 1714) are nominally the away side but are rated essentially level with Canada. Tournament-hardened and defensively sound, they’re the kind of opponent who can win a tight one on organisation — but the model sees no edge for them here.
Canada (Elo 1717) sit one Elo point above Switzerland and get the crowd. The model splits the difference: a near-perfect coin flip with a faint Canadian tilt on home advantage.
Model view. Switzerland 36% / 27% / 37% (home/draw/away), xG 1.26–1.29, BTTS 52%, Under 2.5 53%. As even as group games get.
Model vs market. The flagged edge is on Canada: 3.50 implies 29% but the model gives 37% — an 8.7% edge, driven by home advantage the away-side framing under-prices.
- Canada ML at 3.50 — model 37%, fair ~2.70; the value side of a dead-even game
- Draw at 3.30 — model 27%, fair ~3.70, live in a tight top-spot decider
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 52%, two willing attacks at parity
Avoid: Switzerland -0.5 at a short price (only 36%), backing either side as a clear favourite — the model says there isn’t one.
This is a coin-flip the market frames as Swiss-leaning, and the model’s edge is on Canada at 3.50. If either side is already through and rests players, re-read the lineup before betting.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Group B standings — this likely decides who wins the group
- Whether either side is already qualified and may rotate
- Vancouver crowd — Canada are effectively at home again
- Both midfields' legs in a third-window game