Model vs market
our call = 57% model + 43% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | Draw | Qatar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 64.1% | 22.6% | 13.3% |
| Market (de-vig) | 67.9% | 18.9% | 13.2% |
| Our call | 65.7% | 21.0% | 13.2% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Bosnia & Herzegovina's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Bosnia & Herzegovina | Push | Qatar |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39.8% | — | 60.2% |
| -1 | 39.8% | 24.3% | 35.9% |
| -0.5 | 64.1% | — | 35.9% |
| 0 | 64.1% | 22.6% | 13.3% |
| +0.5 | 86.7% | — | 13.3% |
| +1 | 86.7% | 9.2% | 4.1% |
| +1.5 | 95.9% | — | 4.1% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.6% | 23.4% |
| 2.5 | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| 3.5 | 29.3% | 70.7% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Bosnia & Herzegovina or Draw | 86.7% |
| Draw or Qatar | 35.9% |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina or Qatar (no draw) | 77.4% |
| DNB — Bosnia & Herzegovina | 82.8% |
| DNB — Qatar | 17.2% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 12.4% |
| 1–0 | 11.8% |
| 1–1 | 10.8% |
| 2–1 | 9.7% |
| 3–0 | 8.1% |
| 0–0 | 7.4% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 41 books · as ofAll 41 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Bosnia & Herzegovina | Draw | Qatar | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.48 (best price) | 5.10 (best price) | 7.40 (best price) | 1.67 (best price) | 2.28 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.48 (best price) | 4.98 | 7.13 | 1.67 (best price) | 2.28 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.40 | 4.40 | 6.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.40 | 4.75 | 7.00 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.43 | 4.90 | 6.75 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.43 | 4.95 | 6.75 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.48 (best price) | 5.10 (best price) | 7.40 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.48 (best price) | 5.10 (best price) | 7.40 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.36 | 4.00 | 6.00 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.44 | 4.60 | 7.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.44 | 5.05 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Betsson | 1.48 (best price) | 4.75 | 6.50 | 1.65 | 2.28 (best price) |
| Betway | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.50 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.44 | 4.80 | 6.75 | 1.64 | 2.20 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.44 | 4.80 | 6.60 | 1.59 | 2.17 |
| Coolbet | 1.47 | 4.75 | 7.25 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.44 | 5.00 | 6.75 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.43 | 4.70 | 6.40 | 1.64 | 2.20 |
| GTbets | 1.45 | 4.76 | 6.77 | 1.66 | 2.27 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.44 | 4.80 | 6.50 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.44 | 4.80 | 6.75 | 1.64 | 2.20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.44 | 4.80 | 6.75 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.43 | 4.70 | 6.40 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.48 (best price) | 5.10 (best price) | 7.40 (best price) | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.43 | 4.80 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.46 | 4.95 | 6.80 | 1.65 | 2.28 (best price) |
| Paddy Power | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.44 | 4.96 | 6.82 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.43 | 4.70 | 6.40 | 1.61 | 2.15 |
| Sky Bet | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.25 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.48 (best price) | 5.10 (best price) | 7.40 (best price) | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.42 | 4.90 | 6.80 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.42 | 5.00 | 6.80 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.45 | 4.90 | 6.75 | 1.64 | 2.20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.45 | 4.90 | 6.75 | 1.66 | 2.25 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.45 | 4.75 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.43 | 4.70 | 6.40 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.43 | 4.90 | 6.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.42 | 4.90 | 6.00 | — | — |
Analysis
Group B's two strugglers meet — model rates Qatar the surprise favourite, and the price is wildly off.
Group B, matchday 3 at Lumen Field in Seattle. With Switzerland and Canada expected to take the knockout spots, this is a tail-of-the-table fixture — but the model has a sharp, contrarian read on it.
Bosnia & Herzegovina (Elo 1452) are the lowest-rated side in the group and are listed as the home team and bookmaker favourite at 1.57. The model disagrees firmly: it gives Bosnia just 28% to win.
Qatar (Elo 1501) are rated 49 Elo points above Bosnia and the model makes them the actual favourite at 46% — despite the market pricing them out at 6.00. The xG line of 1.47–1.08 leans their way.
Model view. Qatar 28% / 26% / 46% (home/draw/away), xG 1.08–1.47, BTTS 51%, Under 2.5 53%. A clear model-vs-market inversion.
Model vs market. This is the biggest market disagreement in Group B. Qatar at 6.00 implies just 17% but the model gives them 46% — a 29.6% edge, the largest single edge across these fixtures. The book is anchoring on the home label.
- Qatar ML at 6.00 — model 46%, fair ~2.17; the headline edge of the matchday if the read holds
- Qatar +0.5 / draw-no-bet — combined Qatar win + draw = 72%, deep value vs the implied price
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 51%, two open, error-prone defences
Avoid: Bosnia ML at 1.57 (model 28% — a clear over-price), laying Qatar on any handicap.
This is the model’s loudest name-vs-rating shout in Group B: Qatar at 6.00 against a 46% model probability. Verify the team-news and motivation first — a 29% edge this large demands a sanity check — but the rating says the favourite tag is on the wrong team.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Both sides' standings — likely a battle to avoid bottom and salvage pride
- Bosnia's home-side framing vs the model's away lean — confirm motivation
- Qatar's discipline and whether they can take points off a fragile Bosnia
- Seattle conditions and any rotation if both are eliminated