Model vs market
our call = 44% model + 56% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Haiti | Draw | Scotland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 18.9% | 26.0% | 55.0% |
| Market (de-vig) | 13.6% | 21.0% | 65.4% |
| Our call | 16.0% | 23.2% | 60.9% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Haiti's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Haiti | Push | Scotland |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6.6% | — | 93.4% |
| -1 | 6.6% | 12.4% | 81.0% |
| -0.5 | 18.9% | — | 81.0% |
| 0 | 18.9% | 26.0% | 55.0% |
| +0.5 | 45.0% | — | 55.0% |
| +1 | 45.0% | 24.1% | 30.9% |
| +1.5 | 69.0% | — | 30.9% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.2% | 25.8% |
| 2.5 | 48.1% | 51.9% |
| 3.5 | 26.3% | 73.7% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Haiti or Draw | 45.0% |
| Draw or Scotland | 81.0% |
| Haiti or Scotland (no draw) | 74.0% |
| DNB — Haiti | 25.6% |
| DNB — Scotland | 74.4% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.4% |
| 0–1 | 11.6% |
| 0–2 | 10.7% |
| 1–2 | 9.7% |
| 0–0 | 8.5% |
| 0–3 | 6.0% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 37 books · as ofAll 37 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Haiti | Draw | Scotland | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 7.50 (best price) | 4.70 (best price) | 1.53 (best price) | 1.98 (best price) | 1.93 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 6.80 | 4.55 | 1.51 | 1.92 | 1.90 |
| 888sport | 6.00 | 4.20 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 6.50 | 4.10 | 1.50 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 6.50 | 4.30 | 1.50 | 1.95 | 1.87 |
| Betclic (FR) | 6.25 | 4.35 | 1.48 | — | — |
| Betfair | 7.00 | 4.70 (best price) | 1.53 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 7.00 | 4.70 (best price) | 1.53 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 6.00 | 4.33 | 1.44 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 6.65 | 4.59 | 1.50 | 1.93 | 1.88 |
| Betsson | 6.90 | 4.25 | 1.52 | 1.90 | 1.92 |
| Betway | 6.00 | 4.20 | 1.45 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Casumo | 7.00 | 4.30 | 1.47 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
| Codere (IT) | 6.40 | 4.30 | 1.51 | 1.84 | 1.83 |
| Coolbet | 7.00 | 4.40 | 1.51 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Coral | 6.50 | 4.33 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Everygame | 6.75 | 4.33 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 7.00 | 4.20 | 1.45 | 1.87 | 1.88 |
| GTbets | 6.29 | 4.45 | 1.46 | 1.85 | 1.93 (best price) |
| Ladbrokes | 6.50 | 4.33 | 1.50 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 7.00 | 4.30 | 1.47 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 7.00 | 4.30 | 1.47 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 6.85 | 4.55 | 1.50 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 6.00 | 4.20 | 1.49 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Nordic Bet | 6.90 | 4.25 | 1.52 | 1.90 | 1.92 |
| Paddy Power | 6.50 | 4.33 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 6.79 | 4.39 | 1.51 | 1.98 (best price) | 1.91 |
| PMU (FR) | 7.00 | 4.30 | 1.47 | 1.77 | 1.79 |
| Sky Bet | 6.25 | 4.33 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 7.00 | 4.60 | 1.53 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 6.50 | 4.45 | 1.49 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 7.50 (best price) | 4.40 | 1.48 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
| Unibet (SE) | 7.50 (best price) | 4.40 | 1.48 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
| Unibet (UK) | 6.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 | — | — |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 4.20 | 1.44 | 1.80 | 1.91 |
| Winamax (DE) | 5.90 | 4.50 | 1.48 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 5.70 | 4.40 | 1.46 | — | — |
Analysis
The Elo has Haiti favoured, which is the line I'm least confident in across the opening week.
Group C’s second game on Day 3, late kickoff at Gillette Stadium. Neutral venue, neither side has a real travelling advantage.
Haiti are in their first World Cup since 1974. Qualification came via the CONCACAF expanded process, which means they beat several weaker Caribbean and Central American sides and then won a couple of decisive matches that mattered. Elo (~1672) reflects that — a string of wins inflates ratings even when the wins are against teams ranked below them. The model is technically correct on the math; whether the math reflects what Haiti can do against a UEFA-tested side is the question.
Scotland have the opposite profile: a hard schedule (UEFA Nations League, European Qualifiers against top-30 sides), respectable results, and a rating (~1586) that probably understates them in absolute terms while accurately ranking them. Tactically, they’re a 3-5-2 with wing-backs providing the width, McTominay (if fit) as the box-arriving 8, and a direct/transition style on the counter.
Model view. Haiti 54% / 25% / 22%, xG 1.62–0.93, O2.5 47%, BTTS 49%. I do not trust the favouriteship. This is one of those cases where the Elo is a fair rating of the result distribution but a poor predictor of this particular fixture, because Haiti’s rating was earned against a different quality of opposition than they’re about to face.
Betting angle. Treat this as roughly a coin flip in your head, with a slight Scotland lean if anything. That means:
- Scotland +0.5 AH at any price 1.85+ is good value (model says Scotland-win + draw = 47%, but I’d manually adjust to 55%+)
- Draw at 3.20+ is interesting — 25% model, possibly higher in truth as both sides defend deep
- Under 2.5 at 1.95+ — Scotland matches finish under 2.5 about 60% of the time
Avoid: Haiti -0.5 / Haiti ML at short odds. The model says one thing; the eye test (and Scotland’s actual quality of opposition record) says another. When the model and the eye test disagree, sit out or take the contrarian side.
This is a calibration match for the rest of the tournament. A Scotland win or convincing draw means the Haiti Elo needs a manual downward adjustment that will ripple through Group C predictions.
Verify before betting
- Haiti's qualification path — many wins came against very weak CONCACAF opponents
- Scotland XI — McTominay, Robertson, Tierney availability
- Boston weather; could be 28°C and humid by kickoff
- Haiti coaching continuity; instability hurts Elo-style ratings less than it hurts actual performance
Team news
Haiti · ScotlandBets on this match
No bets placed.