The model's pre-kickoff call was Morocco win at 57.0%, and it gave the actual result (Morocco win) 57.0%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 40 books · as ofAll 40 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Scotland | Draw | Morocco | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 6.80 (best price) | 3.80 (best price) | 1.71 (best price) | 2.32 (best price) | 1.70 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 6.31 | 3.73 | 1.70 | 2.30 | 1.66 |
| 888sport | 5.50 | 3.40 | 1.61 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 5.75 | 3.70 | 1.61 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 6.25 | 3.75 | 1.66 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 6.25 | 3.65 | 1.65 | — | — |
| Betfair | 6.80 (best price) | 3.75 | 1.69 | — | — |
| Betfair | 6.80 (best price) | 3.75 | 1.69 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 5.50 | 3.50 | 1.67 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 6.25 | 3.75 | 1.66 | — | — |
| Betsson | 5.95 | 3.60 | 1.70 | 2.32 (best price) | 1.62 |
| Betway | 5.75 | 3.60 | 1.61 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 5.50 | 3.50 | 1.62 | — | — |
| Casumo | 6.00 | 3.65 | 1.64 | 2.15 | 1.67 |
| Codere (IT) | 5.80 | 3.60 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.60 |
| Coolbet | 6.30 | 3.72 | 1.68 | — | — |
| Coral | 5.50 | 3.60 | 1.67 | — | — |
| Everygame | 6.00 | 3.60 | 1.65 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 5.75 | 3.60 | 1.63 | 2.15 | 1.67 |
| GTbets | 5.50 | 3.59 | 1.69 | 2.20 | 1.66 |
| Ladbrokes | 5.50 | 3.60 | 1.67 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 6.00 | 3.65 | 1.64 | 2.15 | 1.67 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 6.00 | 3.65 | 1.64 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 5.75 | 3.60 | 1.62 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 6.80 (best price) | 3.75 | 1.71 (best price) | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 5.70 | 3.60 | 1.65 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 5.95 | 3.60 | 1.70 | 2.32 (best price) | 1.62 |
| Paddy Power | 6.00 | 3.50 | 1.62 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 6.26 | 3.74 | 1.68 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 6.00 | 3.75 | 1.66 | 2.10 | 1.64 |
| Sky Bet | 6.00 | 3.60 | 1.62 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 6.80 (best price) | 3.75 | 1.69 | — | — |
| Tipico | 6.20 | 3.60 | 1.62 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 6.50 | 3.70 | 1.64 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 6.25 | 3.80 (best price) | 1.68 | 2.15 | 1.67 |
| Unibet (SE) | 6.10 | 3.75 | 1.66 | 2.18 | 1.70 (best price) |
| Unibet (UK) | 5.75 | 3.75 | 1.67 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 5.75 | 3.60 | 1.62 | — | — |
| William Hill | 5.80 | 3.50 | 1.62 | 2.15 | 1.65 |
| Winamax (DE) | 5.60 | 3.75 | 1.66 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 5.50 | 3.70 | 1.64 | — | — |
Analysis
Morocco are the group's class side and the model rates them heavily — an 85% favourite with a clear price edge.
Group C, matchday 2 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. Morocco arrive as one of the tournament’s dark horses; Scotland likely need at least a point to keep their qualification math workable.
Scotland (Elo 1586) are organised and hard-working but outgunned here. The model gives them just 3% to win and a 19% BTTS — it expects them pinned back for long stretches.
Morocco (Elo 1846) are the highest-rated side in the group and one of the strongest non-traditional powers in the field. The 2022 run was no fluke; the model’s xG line of 2.32–0.23 reflects total expected control.
Model view. Morocco 3% / 13% / 85% (home/draw/away), xG 0.23–2.32, BTTS 19%, Under 2.5 53%. Heavily Morocco.
Model vs market. The data flags Morocco as the edge: 1.99 implies 50% but the model gives 85% — a 34.5% edge, the largest in this fixture. The market is badly underrating the Moroccan class gap.
- Morocco ML at 1.99 — model 85%, fair ~1.18; the standout value of the matchday
- Morocco -1.5 AH ~1.9 — the 2.32–0.23 xG margin supports a multi-goal win
- BTTS no short — model 81% no, Scotland struggle to threaten
Avoid: Scotland ML (3%) or +0.5 chase, over 2.5 as a goal-fest — a controlled 2–0 keeps the total down.
Morocco at near-even money against an 85% model probability is the single biggest price edge in Group C. The only caveat is rotation — confirm Morocco field their first-choice forwards.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — Scotland likely need a result to stay alive
- Morocco's front line — the 2022 semi-finalist core and its fitness
- Foxborough conditions and any Morocco rotation
- Scotland's defensive shape — can they keep it tight and frustrate?