Model vs market
our call = 52% model + 48% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Scotland | Draw | Morocco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 18.8% | 26.1% | 55.1% |
| Market (de-vig) | 23.0% | 28.7% | 48.3% |
| Our call | 20.8% | 27.4% | 51.8% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Scotland's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Scotland | Push | Morocco |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6.5% | — | 93.5% |
| -1 | 6.5% | 12.3% | 81.2% |
| -0.5 | 18.8% | — | 81.2% |
| 0 | 18.8% | 26.1% | 55.1% |
| +0.5 | 44.9% | — | 55.1% |
| +1 | 44.9% | 24.2% | 31.0% |
| +1.5 | 69.0% | — | 31.0% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.9% | 26.2% |
| 2.5 | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 3.5 | 25.9% | 74.1% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Scotland or Draw | 44.9% |
| Draw or Morocco | 81.2% |
| Scotland or Morocco (no draw) | 73.9% |
| DNB — Scotland | 25.4% |
| DNB — Morocco | 74.6% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.4% |
| 0–1 | 11.8% |
| 0–2 | 10.8% |
| 1–2 | 9.6% |
| 0–0 | 8.6% |
| 0–3 | 6.1% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 30 books · as ofAll 30 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Scotland | Draw | Morocco | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 4.30 (best price) | 3.40 (best price) | 2.07 (best price) | 2.31 (best price) | 1.64 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 4.04 | 3.24 | 2.06 | 2.31 (best price) | 1.64 (best price) |
| 888sport | 3.80 | 3.00 | 2.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.95 | 3.23 | 1.93 | — | — |
| Betfair | 4.30 (best price) | 3.25 | 1.99 | — | — |
| Betfair | 4.30 (best price) | 3.25 | 1.99 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 4.00 | 3.25 | 2.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.28 | 3.40 (best price) | 1.97 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 4.00 | 3.10 | 1.95 | — | — |
| Casumo | 4.10 | 3.25 | 1.97 | 2.25 | 1.56 |
| Coral | 3.80 | 3.30 | 2.05 | — | — |
| Everygame | 4.20 | 3.25 | 2.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 4.00 | 3.20 | 1.96 | 2.28 | 1.60 |
| GTbets | 3.92 | 3.23 | 2.07 (best price) | 2.28 | 1.61 |
| Ladbrokes | 3.75 | 3.30 | 2.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 4.10 | 3.25 | 1.97 | 2.25 | 1.56 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.10 | 3.25 | 1.97 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 3.92 | 3.15 | 2.00 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 3.90 | 3.20 | 1.96 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 3.80 | 3.30 | 2.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 4.07 | 3.19 | 1.96 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 4.10 | 3.25 | 1.97 | 2.16 | 1.51 |
| Sky Bet | 3.80 | 3.25 | 2.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 4.30 (best price) | 3.30 | 2.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 4.05 | 3.30 | 1.96 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.20 | 3.35 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 1.56 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.20 | 3.30 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 1.56 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.90 | 3.20 | 1.95 | — | — |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 1.60 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.65 | 3.15 | 1.90 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.55 | 3.10 | 1.86 | — | — |
Analysis
Morocco are the group's class side and the model rates them heavily — an 85% favourite with a clear price edge.
Group C, matchday 2 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough. Morocco arrive as one of the tournament’s dark horses; Scotland likely need at least a point to keep their qualification math workable.
Scotland (Elo 1586) are organised and hard-working but outgunned here. The model gives them just 3% to win and a 19% BTTS — it expects them pinned back for long stretches.
Morocco (Elo 1846) are the highest-rated side in the group and one of the strongest non-traditional powers in the field. The 2022 run was no fluke; the model’s xG line of 2.32–0.23 reflects total expected control.
Model view. Morocco 3% / 13% / 85% (home/draw/away), xG 0.23–2.32, BTTS 19%, Under 2.5 53%. Heavily Morocco.
Betting angle. The data flags Morocco as the edge: 1.99 implies 50% but the model gives 85% — a 34.5% edge, the largest in this fixture. The market is badly underrating the Moroccan class gap.
- Morocco ML at 1.99 — model 85%, fair ~1.18; the standout value of the matchday
- Morocco -1.5 AH ~1.9 — the 2.32–0.23 xG margin supports a multi-goal win
- BTTS no short — model 81% no, Scotland struggle to threaten
Avoid: Scotland ML (3%) or +0.5 chase, over 2.5 as a goal-fest — a controlled 2–0 keeps the total down.
Morocco at near-even money against an 85% model probability is the single biggest price edge in Group C. The only caveat is rotation — confirm Morocco field their first-choice forwards.
Verify before betting
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — Scotland likely need a result to stay alive
- Morocco's front line — the 2022 semi-finalist core and its fitness
- Foxborough conditions and any Morocco rotation
- Scotland's defensive shape — can they keep it tight and frustrate?
Team news
Scotland · MoroccoBets on this match
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