Model vs market
our call = 31% model + 69% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Brazil | Draw | Haiti |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 77.1% | 16.6% | 6.3% |
| Market (de-vig) | 93.4% | 5.1% | 1.6% |
| Our call | 88.3% | 8.7% | 3.0% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Brazil's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Brazil | Push | Haiti |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 54.3% | — | 45.7% |
| -1 | 54.3% | 22.8% | 22.9% |
| -0.5 | 77.1% | — | 22.9% |
| 0 | 77.1% | 16.6% | 6.3% |
| +0.5 | 93.7% | — | 6.3% |
| +1 | 93.7% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| +1.5 | 98.5% | — | 1.5% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.9% | 21.1% |
| 2.5 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| 3.5 | 32.7% | 67.3% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Brazil or Draw | 93.7% |
| Draw or Haiti | 22.9% |
| Brazil or Haiti (no draw) | 83.4% |
| DNB — Brazil | 92.4% |
| DNB — Haiti | 7.6% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 15.3% |
| 1–0 | 12.5% |
| 3–0 | 11.9% |
| 2–1 | 8.3% |
| 1–1 | 7.8% |
| 4–0 | 7.0% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 28 books · as ofAll 28 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Brazil | Draw | Haiti | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.08 (best price) | 16.50 (best price) | 46.00 (best price) | 1.25 (best price) | 3.75 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.06 | 14.10 | 40.00 | — | — |
| 888sport | 1.06 | 11.00 | 34.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.05 | 10.75 | 27.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.08 (best price) | 16.00 | 44.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.08 (best price) | 16.00 | 44.00 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.08 (best price) | 10.00 | 29.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.07 | 13.35 | 34.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.07 | 12.00 | 34.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.05 | 15.00 | 41.00 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.08 (best price) | 13.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.07 | 12.00 | 29.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.04 | 14.00 | 35.00 | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 1.08 (best price) | 12.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.05 | 15.00 | 41.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.05 | 15.00 | 41.00 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.05 | 11.25 | 32.00 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.06 | 10.30 | 25.00 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 1.06 | 13.00 | 31.00 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.05 | 15.00 | 41.00 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 1.06 | 12.00 | 21.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.07 | 16.50 (best price) | 42.02 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.06 | 12.00 | 30.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.06 | 16.00 | 46.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.05 | 16.00 | 46.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.06 | 10.00 | 29.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.07 | 11.00 | 34.00 | 1.25 (best price) | 3.75 (best price) |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.04 | 10.00 | 18.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.03 | 9.00 | 17.00 | — | — |
Analysis
Brazil are a 1.06 lock — the value isn't on the win but on the under and the long-shot derivatives.
Group C, matchday 2 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. Brazil are overwhelming favourites and a win likely locks up the group; Haiti are trying to keep the scoreline respectable.
Brazil (Elo 1783) are the marquee name and priced accordingly at 1.06 — there is no value on the win itself. The xG line of 1.72–0.83 is comfortable but notably not a blowout projection, which is where the angle lives.
Haiti (Elo 1672) are higher-rated than their reputation and the model gives them more respect than the 34.00 away price implies — a 18% chance of a result of some kind via the draw and a puncher’s away win.
Model view. Brazil 58% / 24% / 18%, xG 1.72–0.83, BTTS 46%, Under 2.5 53%. Brazil favoured but the model’s win number (58%) is far below the 1.06 price.
Betting angle. The data flags three edges — and crucially the win is NOT one of them. The book has Brazil at ~94% implied; the model says 58%. The flagged value is the under, the draw, and even the Haiti win at huge prices.
- Under 2.5 at 3.75 — model 53%, implied 27%, a 26.4% edge; if Brazil control rather than rout, this is the play
- Draw at 12.50 — model 24%, implied 8%, a 15.6% edge; rotation/complacency makes this live
- Haiti ML at 34.00 — model 18%, implied 3%, a 15% edge; a tiny-stake lottery with real model backing
Avoid: Brazil ML at 1.06 (model only 58% — a severe over-price), Brazil -2.5 / -3.5 chasing a blowout the xG doesn’t project.
The market treats this as a Brazil formality at 94% implied; the model says 58% and stacks the value on the under, the draw, and the long-shot Haiti win. This is a fade-the-favourite-price spot, not a follow-Brazil spot.
Verify before betting
- Brazil's matchday-1 result — a win here likely seals top spot
- Brazil rotation risk against clearly weaker opposition
- Haiti's defensive block — how deep do they sit?
- Philadelphia conditions for the goal-total read
Team news
Brazil · HaitiBets on this match
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