Group C, matchday 2 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. Brazil are overwhelming favourites and a win likely locks up the group; Haiti are trying to keep the scoreline respectable.

Brazil (Elo 1783) are the marquee name and priced accordingly at 1.06 — there is no value on the win itself. The xG line of 1.72–0.83 is comfortable but notably not a blowout projection, which is where the angle lives.

Haiti (Elo 1672) are higher-rated than their reputation and the model gives them more respect than the 34.00 away price implies — a 18% chance of a result of some kind via the draw and a puncher’s away win.

Model view. Brazil 58% / 24% / 18%, xG 1.72–0.83, BTTS 46%, Under 2.5 53%. Brazil favoured but the model’s win number (58%) is far below the 1.06 price.

Model vs market. The data flags three edges — and crucially the win is NOT one of them. The book has Brazil at ~94% implied; the model says 58%. The flagged value is the under, the draw, and even the Haiti win at huge prices.

• Under 2.5 at 3.75 — model 53%, implied 27%, a 26.4% edge; if Brazil control rather than rout, this is the play
• Draw at 12.50 — model 24%, implied 8%, a 15.6% edge; rotation/complacency makes this live
• Haiti ML at 34.00 — model 18%, implied 3%, a 15% edge; a tiny-probability longshot with real model backing

Avoid: Brazil ML at 1.06 (model only 58% — a severe over-price), Brazil -2.5 / -3.5 chasing a blowout the xG doesn’t project.

The market treats this as a Brazil formality at 94% implied; the model says 58% and stacks the value on the under, the draw, and the long-shot Haiti win. This is a fade-the-favourite-price spot, not a follow-Brazil spot.