Model vs market
our call = 32% model + 68% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Scotland | Draw | Brazil |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 18.6% | 26.0% | 55.5% |
| Market (de-vig) | 11.0% | 17.4% | 71.6% |
| Our call | 13.4% | 20.1% | 66.5% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Scotland's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Scotland | Push | Brazil |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6.4% | — | 93.6% |
| -1 | 6.4% | 12.2% | 81.4% |
| -0.5 | 18.6% | — | 81.4% |
| 0 | 18.6% | 26.0% | 55.5% |
| +0.5 | 44.5% | — | 55.5% |
| +1 | 44.5% | 24.2% | 31.3% |
| +1.5 | 68.7% | — | 31.3% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 2.5 | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 3.5 | 26.0% | 74.0% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Scotland or Draw | 44.5% |
| Draw or Brazil | 81.4% |
| Scotland or Brazil (no draw) | 74.0% |
| DNB — Scotland | 25.1% |
| DNB — Brazil | 74.9% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.4% |
| 0–1 | 11.8% |
| 0–2 | 10.9% |
| 1–2 | 9.6% |
| 0–0 | 8.5% |
| 0–3 | 6.1% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 40 books · as ofAll 40 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Scotland | Draw | Brazil | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 9.20 (best price) | 5.60 (best price) | 1.42 (best price) | 1.97 (best price) | 2.04 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 8.40 | 5.23 | 1.42 (best price) | 1.87 | 2.00 |
| 888sport | 7.00 | 4.60 | 1.36 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 9.00 | 4.75 | 1.33 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 6.75 | 5.25 | 1.39 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 7.75 | 5.25 | 1.37 | — | — |
| Betfair | 9.20 (best price) | 5.50 | 1.40 | — | — |
| Betfair | 9.20 (best price) | 5.50 | 1.40 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 7.00 | 4.60 | 1.36 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 7.40 | 5.25 | 1.41 | 1.89 | 1.96 |
| Betsson | 8.70 | 4.85 | 1.40 | 1.88 | 1.95 |
| Betway | 6.50 | 5.25 | 1.38 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 9.00 | 4.50 | 1.33 | — | — |
| Casumo | 8.50 | 5.40 | 1.35 | 1.77 | 2.00 |
| Codere (IT) | 8.00 | 4.90 | 1.39 | 1.76 | 1.91 |
| Coolbet | 8.50 | 5.05 | 1.40 | 1.85 | 1.96 |
| Coral | 8.00 | 4.80 | 1.40 | — | — |
| Everygame | 6.75 | 5.50 | 1.40 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 8.00 | 5.20 | 1.34 | 1.77 | 2.00 |
| GTbets | 7.81 | 4.93 | 1.41 | 1.80 | 1.98 |
| Ladbrokes | 8.00 | 4.80 | 1.36 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 8.50 | 5.40 | 1.35 | 1.77 | 2.00 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 8.50 | 5.40 | 1.35 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 8.00 | 5.20 | 1.33 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 9.20 (best price) | 5.50 | 1.40 | 1.97 (best price) | 2.00 |
| MyBookie.ag | 7.80 | 4.90 | 1.38 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
| Nordic Bet | 8.70 | 5.15 | 1.37 | 1.88 | 1.95 |
| Paddy Power | 8.00 | 5.00 | 1.33 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 7.03 | 5.34 | 1.40 | 1.91 | 1.96 |
| PMU (FR) | 8.00 | 5.20 | 1.33 | 1.74 | 1.94 |
| Sky Bet | 7.50 | 5.00 | 1.33 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 9.20 (best price) | 5.40 | 1.40 | — | — |
| Tipico | 8.20 | 5.20 | 1.35 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 8.00 | 5.30 | 1.36 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 9.00 | 5.60 (best price) | 1.36 | 1.77 | 2.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 9.00 | 5.60 (best price) | 1.36 | 1.80 | 2.04 (best price) |
| Unibet (UK) | 8.00 | 4.75 | 1.37 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 8.00 | 5.20 | 1.33 | — | — |
| William Hill | 7.50 | 4.80 | 1.36 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 6.25 | 5.60 (best price) | 1.37 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 6.00 | 5.50 | 1.37 | — | — |
Analysis
Brazil are heavy favourites in the Group C finale — efficiently priced, with only a thin edge on the win.
Group C, matchday 3 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Brazil are likely playing for seeding and Scotland, in all probability, are chasing a result to survive.
Scotland (Elo 1586) are well-organised but heavily outmatched on talent. The model gives them 8% to win; their realistic ceiling is a frustrating draw if Brazil are rotating or flat.
Brazil (Elo 1783) are the class of the group at 197 Elo points clear. The xG line of 2.06–0.49 reflects expected dominance, and the model has them at 75% to win.
Model view. Brazil 8% / 18% / 75% (home/draw/away), xG 0.49–2.06, BTTS 34%, Under 2.5 53%. Firmly Brazil.
Model vs market. The data flags a modest edge on Brazil themselves: 1.45 implies 69% but the model gives 75% — a 5.6% edge. It’s real but thin, so size accordingly and watch the lineup.
- Brazil ML at 1.45 — model 75%, fair ~1.33; a small but genuine edge
- Brazil -1.5 AH ~1.9 — the 2.06–0.49 xG margin supports a multi-goal win if first-choice
- Under 2.5 at 1.92 — model 53%, fair ~1.89, roughly fair, leans live if Brazil control rather than rout
Avoid: Scotland ML (8%), draw at short prices unless Brazil are confirmed rotating, over 2.5 chasing a blowout.
Brazil are correctly favoured and the line is close to fair — the only real swing factor is rotation. Confirm Brazil’s team news; a rested XI tilts value toward the draw and the under.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Group C standings — Brazil may already be through and rotating
- Scotland's qualification scenario — a must-win could force them open
- Miami Gardens heat and Brazil's lineup intentions
- Whether Brazil rest key attackers ahead of the knockouts