Model vs market
our call = 36% model + 64% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Morocco | Draw | Haiti |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 70.1% | 20.1% | 9.8% |
| Market (de-vig) | 84.2% | 11.1% | 4.7% |
| Our call | 79.1% | 14.3% | 6.5% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Morocco's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Morocco | Push | Haiti |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 46.1% | — | 53.9% |
| -1 | 46.1% | 24.0% | 29.9% |
| -0.5 | 70.1% | — | 29.9% |
| 0 | 70.1% | 20.1% | 9.8% |
| +0.5 | 90.2% | — | 9.8% |
| +1 | 90.2% | 7.1% | 2.7% |
| +1.5 | 97.3% | — | 2.7% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.3% | 22.7% |
| 2.5 | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| 3.5 | 30.3% | 69.7% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Morocco or Draw | 90.2% |
| Draw or Haiti | 29.9% |
| Morocco or Haiti (no draw) | 79.9% |
| DNB — Morocco | 87.8% |
| DNB — Haiti | 12.2% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 13.8% |
| 1–0 | 12.4% |
| 3–0 | 9.7% |
| 1–1 | 9.5% |
| 2–1 | 9.2% |
| 0–0 | 7.0% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 40 books · as ofAll 40 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Morocco | Draw | Haiti | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.23 (best price) | 8.20 (best price) | 20.00 (best price) | 1.62 (best price) | 2.60 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.20 | 7.50 | 19.50 | — | — |
| 888sport | 1.17 | 6.50 | 15.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.14 | 7.50 | 18.00 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.17 | 7.00 | 17.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.16 | 7.75 | 17.25 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 8.00 | 20.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 8.00 | 20.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.20 | 6.50 | 15.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.20 | 7.25 | 16.25 | — | — |
| Betsson | 1.20 | 6.50 | 19.50 | 1.62 (best price) | 2.32 |
| Betway | 1.18 | 7.00 | 15.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.18 | 6.50 | 15.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.16 | 8.00 | 16.00 | 1.49 | 2.55 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.18 | 7.20 | 16.00 | — | — |
| Coolbet | 1.20 | 7.00 | 18.00 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.18 | 7.00 | 15.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.16 | 7.25 | 17.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.15 | 7.50 | 15.00 | 1.49 | 2.55 |
| GTbets | 1.23 (best price) | 7.04 | 15.81 | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 1.18 | 7.00 | 15.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.16 | 8.00 | 16.00 | 1.49 | 2.55 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.16 | 8.00 | 16.00 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.15 | 7.50 | 15.00 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.20 | 8.00 | 20.00 (best price) | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.17 | 7.00 | 15.75 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.19 | 6.70 | 19.50 | 1.58 | 2.42 |
| Paddy Power | 1.14 | 7.50 | 16.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.17 | 7.04 | 16.57 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.15 | 7.50 | 15.00 | 1.45 | 2.48 |
| Sky Bet | 1.17 | 7.00 | 15.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.20 | 8.20 (best price) | 19.49 | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.16 | 7.80 | 15.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.16 | 7.60 | 17.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.17 | 8.00 | 18.00 | 1.49 | 2.55 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.17 | 8.00 | 18.00 | 1.51 | 2.60 (best price) |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.17 | 7.00 | 17.00 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.15 | 7.50 | 15.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.18 | 6.50 | 15.00 | 1.53 | 2.38 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.16 | 7.50 | 13.50 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.16 | 7.25 | 13.00 | — | — |
Analysis
Morocco should win comfortably in the Group C finale — the value is on the under, not the win.
Group C, matchday 3 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Morocco are the group’s strongest side and should control this; the question is whether they bury it or simply manage it.
Morocco (Elo 1846) are the highest-rated team in the group and clear favourites at 1.33. The xG line of 1.97–0.58 is dominant but not a rout projection, which shapes the angle. The model has them at 71% to win.
Haiti (Elo 1672) are quietly respectable on the rating and capable of staying compact. The model gives them just 10% to win but a real chance of keeping the total down.
Model view. Morocco 71% / 20% / 10%, xG 1.97–0.58, BTTS 38%, Under 2.5 53%. Morocco firmly favoured.
Model vs market. The flagged edge is the under, not the win. Under 2.5 at 2.17 implies 46% but the model gives 53% — a 7% edge. Morocco controlling rather than overwhelming is the projected script.
- Under 2.5 at 2.17 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; the flagged value
- Morocco -1 AH ~1.8 — the 71% win plus xG margin makes a one-goal cushion live
- BTTS no ~1.8 — model 62% no, Haiti likely shut out
Avoid: Morocco ML at 1.33 (no flagged edge — fairly priced), Morocco -2.5 chasing a blowout, over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
Morocco win this comfortably but the value is on the under at 2.17, not the short ML. Watch for rotation if Morocco are already group winners — a rested side makes the under even stronger.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Group C standings — Morocco may already top the group and rotate
- Haiti's qualification math and whether they must chase
- Atlanta roof environment for the goal-total read
- Morocco's first-choice forwards vs a rested XI