Model vs market
our call = 55% model + 45% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Australia | Draw | Turkey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 15.8% | 24.5% | 59.7% |
| Market (de-vig) | 19.6% | 25.9% | 54.5% |
| Our call | 17.5% | 25.2% | 57.3% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Australia's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Australia | Push | Turkey |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5.1% | — | 94.9% |
| -1 | 5.1% | 10.7% | 84.2% |
| -0.5 | 15.8% | — | 84.2% |
| 0 | 15.8% | 24.5% | 59.7% |
| +0.5 | 40.4% | — | 59.7% |
| +1 | 40.4% | 24.4% | 35.2% |
| +1.5 | 64.8% | — | 35.2% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.9% | 25.1% |
| 2.5 | 49.1% | 50.9% |
| 3.5 | 27.2% | 72.8% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Australia or Draw | 40.4% |
| Draw or Turkey | 84.2% |
| Australia or Turkey (no draw) | 75.5% |
| DNB — Australia | 21.0% |
| DNB — Turkey | 79.0% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 0–1 | 12.0% |
| 0–2 | 11.7% |
| 1–1 | 11.7% |
| 1–2 | 9.7% |
| 0–0 | 8.1% |
| 0–3 | 7.0% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 37 books · as ofAll 37 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Australia | Draw | Turkey | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 5.30 (best price) | 3.85 (best price) | 1.82 (best price) | 2.07 (best price) | 1.83 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 4.83 | 3.76 | 1.80 | 2.02 | 1.81 |
| 888sport | 4.40 | 3.40 | 1.75 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 4.75 | 3.60 | 1.73 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 4.70 | 3.65 | 1.76 | 2.05 | 1.80 |
| Betclic (FR) | 4.55 | 3.60 | 1.77 | — | — |
| Betfair | 5.30 (best price) | 3.75 | 1.81 | — | — |
| Betfair | 5.30 (best price) | 3.75 | 1.81 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 4.60 | 3.60 | 1.80 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 5.10 | 3.65 | 1.77 | 2.01 | 1.83 (best price) |
| Betsson | 4.70 | 3.65 | 1.82 (best price) | 2.05 | 1.80 |
| Betway | 4.33 | 3.60 | 1.75 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 4.50 | 3.50 | 1.75 | — | — |
| Casumo | 4.80 | 3.55 | 1.78 | 2.00 | 1.72 |
| Codere (IT) | 4.60 | 3.65 | 1.80 | 1.94 | 1.74 |
| Coolbet | 4.85 | 3.75 | 1.78 | 2.00 | 1.82 |
| Coral | 4.50 | 3.60 | 1.80 | — | — |
| Everygame | 4.75 | 3.65 | 1.75 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 4.70 | 3.50 | 1.77 | 2.02 | 1.75 |
| GTbets | 4.44 | 3.57 | 1.78 | 1.99 | 1.79 |
| Ladbrokes | 4.40 | 3.50 | 1.80 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 4.80 | 3.55 | 1.78 | 2.00 | 1.72 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.80 | 3.55 | 1.78 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 4.90 | 3.76 | 1.78 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 4.40 | 3.50 | 1.76 | 1.95 | 1.76 |
| Nordic Bet | 4.70 | 3.65 | 1.82 (best price) | 2.05 | 1.80 |
| Paddy Power | 5.00 | 3.50 | 1.73 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 4.82 | 3.75 | 1.78 | 2.07 (best price) | 1.83 (best price) |
| PMU (FR) | 4.80 | 3.55 | 1.78 | 1.92 | 1.66 |
| Sky Bet | 4.80 | 3.50 | 1.73 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 5.30 (best price) | 3.85 (best price) | 1.81 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 4.65 | 3.70 | 1.77 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.90 | 3.60 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.72 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.90 | 3.60 | 1.79 | 2.00 | 1.72 |
| Unibet (UK) | 4.50 | 3.50 | 1.78 | — | — |
| William Hill | 4.40 | 3.40 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Winamax (DE) | 4.30 | 3.70 | 1.76 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.74 | — | — |
Analysis
Group D's other opener — a near-coin-flip between two tactically different sides.
Group D’s second match on Day 3, late kickoff at BC Place. Neutral for both — neither has a real travelling base in western Canada.
Australia qualified through the long AFC route — six rounds and a playoff — which means they arrive battle-tested but also leg-tired. The shape under their current cycle has been a 3-4-3 with wing-backs providing the width, a destroyer 6, and direct play to the front three. Elo (~1723) is fair; they punch a bit above their FIFA ranking historically because they are well-organised at tournaments.
Türkiye are the tactically-richer side and stylistically the opposite — possession-based, slow build-up, look for the half-space pass to a creative 10. Their European qualifying form has been credible and Euro 2024 left a decent baseline. Elo (~1691) sits just below Australia, reflecting a few stumbles in friendlies.
Model view. Australia 43% / 26% / 31%, xG 1.40–1.15, O2.5 47%, BTTS 51%. A genuine pick’em with a slight Australia lean from being listed first (no actual venue advantage applied).
Betting angle. This is the kind of match the model is best at — small Elo gap, neutral venue, no home boost distorting things. The numbers are basically fair, which means the market won’t be far off either.
- Draw at 3.30+ — model 26%, fair ~3.85, often pushed shorter than fair on tactical-vs-tactical matchups
- BTTS-Yes at 2.00+ — model 51%, fair ~1.96, marginal but +EV
- Asian total 2.5 under at 1.95+ — model 53%, fair ~1.89
Avoid: either ML at the short side. There’s no real edge — Australia 2.20 / Türkiye 3.10 would be roughly fair, anything tighter than that isn’t worth firing on.
This is the cleanest “trust the model” spot of Day 3 — small gap, neutral pitch, no narrative pull. The downside is the edges are also small.
Verify before betting
- Australia GK choice and back-three vs back-four shape
- Türkiye XI — Çalhanoğlu, Güler usage
- Vancouver weather; late June can be cool and wet
- Australia's travel — squad came from MLS/A-League camps with very different prep
Team news
Australia · TurkeyBets on this match
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