Model vs market
our call = 21% model + 79% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | USA | Draw | Australia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 32.6% | 29.0% | 38.4% |
| Market (de-vig) | 56.1% | 24.6% | 19.3% |
| Our call | 51.2% | 25.5% | 23.3% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from USA's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | USA | Push | Australia |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14.1% | — | 85.9% |
| -1 | 14.1% | 18.5% | 67.4% |
| -0.5 | 32.6% | — | 67.4% |
| 0 | 32.6% | 29.0% | 38.4% |
| +0.5 | 61.6% | — | 38.4% |
| +1 | 61.6% | 20.5% | 18.0% |
| +1.5 | 82.0% | — | 18.0% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.0% | 27.0% |
| 2.5 | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| 3.5 | 24.9% | 75.1% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| USA or Draw | 61.6% |
| Draw or Australia | 67.4% |
| USA or Australia (no draw) | 71.0% |
| DNB — USA | 45.9% |
| DNB — Australia | 54.1% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.8% |
| 0–1 | 9.5% |
| 0–0 | 9.1% |
| 1–0 | 8.5% |
| 1–2 | 8.4% |
| 2–1 | 7.6% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 30 books · as ofAll 30 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | USA | Draw | Australia | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.80 (best price) | 4.00 (best price) | 5.10 (best price) | 2.09 (best price) | 1.81 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 3.83 | 4.88 | 2.04 | 1.81 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.72 | 3.63 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.80 (best price) | 3.95 | 4.30 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.80 (best price) | 3.95 | 4.30 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.73 | 3.60 | 5.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.77 | 3.85 | 4.77 | 2.09 (best price) | 1.78 |
| BoyleSports | 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.75 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.72 | 3.75 | 4.90 | 2.00 | 1.72 |
| Coral | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.60 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.73 | 4.00 (best price) | 4.40 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.80 | 2.04 | 1.74 |
| GTbets | 1.75 | 3.74 | 4.74 | 2.07 | 1.79 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.60 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.72 | 3.75 | 4.90 | 2.00 | 1.72 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.72 | 3.75 | 4.90 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.69 | 3.72 | 4.75 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.77 | 3.50 | 4.40 | 1.96 | 1.76 |
| Paddy Power | 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.75 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 3.94 | 4.28 | 2.01 | 1.79 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.72 | 3.75 | 4.90 | 1.93 | 1.65 |
| Sky Bet | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.75 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.80 (best price) | 3.70 | 4.40 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.74 | 3.70 | 4.60 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.73 | 3.85 | 5.10 (best price) | 2.00 | 1.72 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.72 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 2.00 | 1.72 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.40 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.50 | 2.00 | 1.73 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.68 | 3.55 | 4.10 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.66 | 3.45 | 4.00 | — | — |
Analysis
Co-host USA are favoured by the crowd but the model rates Australia higher — and there's a clear price edge.
Group D, matchday 2 at Lumen Field in Seattle. Co-host USA carry the crowd, but the model sees the talent edge on the other side — a classic home-bias spot.
USA (Elo 1654) are the home side and bookmaker favourite at 1.72, but the model rates them 69 Elo points below Australia. The young US core is talented but the model isn’t convinced the home tag should make them favourites here.
Australia (Elo 1723) are the higher-rated team — physical, disciplined, dangerous on set pieces, and the model’s pick at 37% versus the USA’s 36%. The 4.67 away price looks long for a side the model rates as the stronger of the two.
Model view. USA 36% / 27% / 37% (home/draw/away), xG 1.26–1.29, BTTS 52%, Under 2.5 53%. A dead-even game the model tilts faintly toward Australia.
Betting angle. The data flags Australia as the edge: 4.67 implies 21% but the model gives 37% — a 15.9% edge, driven by the market over-weighting the US home crowd.
- Australia ML at 4.67 — model 37%, fair ~2.70; a sizeable flagged edge
- Draw at 3.73 — model 27%, fair ~3.70, roughly fair and live in a coin-flip
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 52%, two willing attacks at parity
Avoid: USA -0.5 at a short price (only 36%), backing the USA as a clear favourite on crowd alone.
The market makes the USA favourites on home advantage; the model makes Australia the marginally stronger side and prices the away win at huge value. Australia at 4.67 is the disagreement to take — confirm the US lineup first.
Verify before betting
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — this likely shapes the runner-up race
- Seattle home crowd vs the model's away (Australia) lean
- Australia's physical, set-piece-heavy approach against a younger US side
- USA rotation and whether the home label is inflating the price
Team news
USA · AustraliaBets on this match
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