The model's pre-kickoff call was USA win at 55.8%, and it gave the actual result (USA win) 55.8%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 24 books · as ofAll 24 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | USA | Draw | Australia | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.03 (best price) | 46.00 (best price) | 226.00 (best price) | 1.31 (best price) | 4.10 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.01 | 34.00 | 126.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.01 | 23.00 | 91.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.01 | 26.00 | 75.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.03 (best price) | 38.00 | 120.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.03 (best price) | 34.00 | 110.00 | — | — |
| Betsson | 1.01 | 21.00 | 65.00 | — | — |
| Betway | 1.00 | 34.00 | 126.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.01 | 34.00 | 151.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.01 | 26.00 | 151.00 | — | — |
| Coolbet | 1.01 | 46.00 (best price) | 150.00 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.00 | 26.00 | 71.00 | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 1.01 | 23.00 | 67.00 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.02 | 38.00 | 120.00 | 1.31 (best price) | 4.10 (best price) |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.01 | 13.25 | 94.00 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.01 | 21.00 | 65.00 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 1.02 | 36.00 | 226.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 1.02 | 34.00 | 201.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.02 | 34.01 | 100.00 | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.01 | 13.00 | 45.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.01 | 26.00 | 151.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.01 | 26.00 | 151.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.02 | 29.00 | 121.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.01 | 34.00 | 120.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.00 | 32.00 | 110.00 | — | — |
Analysis
Co-host USA are favoured by the crowd but the model rates Australia higher — and there's a clear price edge.
Group D, matchday 2 at Lumen Field in Seattle. Co-host USA carry the crowd, but the model sees the talent edge on the other side — a classic home-bias spot.
USA (Elo 1654) are the home side and bookmaker favourite at 1.72, but the model rates them 69 Elo points below Australia. The young US core is talented but the model isn’t convinced the home tag should make them favourites here.
Australia (Elo 1723) are the higher-rated team — physical, disciplined, dangerous on set pieces, and the model’s pick at 37% versus the USA’s 36%. The 4.67 away price looks long for a side the model rates as the stronger of the two.
Model view. USA 36% / 27% / 37% (home/draw/away), xG 1.26–1.29, BTTS 52%, Under 2.5 53%. A dead-even game the model tilts faintly toward Australia.
Model vs market. The data flags Australia as the edge: 4.67 implies 21% but the model gives 37% — a 15.9% edge, driven by the market over-weighting the US home crowd.
- Australia ML at 4.67 — model 37%, fair ~2.70; a sizeable flagged edge
- Draw at 3.73 — model 27%, fair ~3.70, roughly fair and live in a coin-flip
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 52%, two willing attacks at parity
Avoid: USA -0.5 at a short price (only 36%), backing the USA as a clear favourite on crowd alone.
The market makes the USA favourites on home advantage; the model makes Australia the marginally stronger side and prices the away win at huge value. Australia at 4.67 is the disagreement to take — confirm the US lineup first.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — this likely shapes the runner-up race
- Seattle home crowd vs the model's away (Australia) lean
- Australia's physical, set-piece-heavy approach against a younger US side
- USA rotation and whether the home label is inflating the price