Model vs market
our call = 58% model + 42% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Turkey | Draw | Paraguay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 46.1% | 28.6% | 25.3% |
| Market (de-vig) | 43.3% | 29.5% | 27.2% |
| Our call | 44.9% | 29.0% | 26.1% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Turkey's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Turkey | Push | Paraguay |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23.3% | — | 76.7% |
| -1 | 23.3% | 22.8% | 53.9% |
| -0.5 | 46.1% | — | 53.9% |
| 0 | 46.1% | 28.6% | 25.3% |
| +0.5 | 74.7% | — | 25.3% |
| +1 | 74.7% | 15.6% | 9.7% |
| +1.5 | 90.3% | — | 9.7% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.7% | 28.3% |
| 2.5 | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| 3.5 | 23.6% | 76.4% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Turkey or Draw | 74.7% |
| Draw or Paraguay | 53.9% |
| Turkey or Paraguay (no draw) | 71.4% |
| DNB — Turkey | 64.6% |
| DNB — Paraguay | 35.4% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.6% |
| 1–0 | 11.2% |
| 0–0 | 9.6% |
| 2–1 | 9.1% |
| 2–0 | 8.9% |
| 0–1 | 7.5% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 29 books · as ofAll 29 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Turkey | Draw | Paraguay | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 2.28 (best price) | 3.30 (best price) | 3.55 (best price) | 2.35 (best price) | 1.65 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 2.27 | 3.23 | 3.42 | 2.31 | 1.64 |
| 888sport | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.25 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.15 | 3.15 | 3.37 | — | — |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.05 | 3.45 | — | — |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.05 | 3.45 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.40 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.22 | 3.30 (best price) | 3.55 (best price) | 2.35 (best price) | 1.65 (best price) |
| BoyleSports | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Casumo | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Coral | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.30 | — | — |
| Everygame | 2.25 | 3.15 | 3.45 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 2.23 | 3.15 | 3.35 | 2.25 | 1.62 |
| GTbets | 2.24 | 3.19 | 3.44 | 2.29 | 1.60 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.30 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 2.21 | 3.14 | 3.32 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.18 | 3.12 | 3.34 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.30 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 2.21 | 3.12 | 3.42 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.30 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 2.18 | 2.98 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.45 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.28 (best price) | 3.25 | 3.45 | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.28 (best price) | 3.25 | 3.45 | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.20 | 3.10 | 3.35 | — | — |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.30 | 1.57 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.15 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.05 | 3.00 | 3.10 | — | — |
Analysis
Turkey are the stronger side and the model backs them clearly — a flagged edge on the home win.
Group D, matchday 2 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. Turkey are the higher-rated side and a win would put them in strong shape for the knockout lanes; Paraguay will look to grind out a result.
Turkey (Elo 1691) are the class side here — a talented, attack-minded group rated 126 Elo points above Paraguay. The model’s xG line of 1.78–0.77 reflects expected control and gives them 61% to win.
Paraguay (Elo 1565) are organised and defensively stubborn but light going forward. The model gives them just 16% to win; their realistic path to points is a low-scoring stalemate.
Model view. Turkey 61% / 23% / 16%, xG 1.78–0.77, BTTS 45%, Under 2.5 53%. Turkey firmly favoured.
Betting angle. The data flags Turkey as the edge: 2.20 implies 45% but the model gives 61% — a 16% edge. The market is underrating the rating gap.
- Turkey ML at 2.20 — model 61%, fair ~1.64; the flagged value of the fixture
- Turkey -0.5 AH = the straight win, 61%, same fair ~1.64
- Under 2.5 at 1.60 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; short but supported if Paraguay sit deep
Avoid: Paraguay ML (16%), over 2.5 against a defensive opponent, BTTS yes short (model 45%).
Turkey at 2.20 against a 61% model probability is the standout edge in this fixture. Confirm Turkey’s attackers are fit and starting before backing the home win.
Verify before betting
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — Turkey likely favoured to push for the top two
- Turkey's attacking talent and whether the front line clicks
- Paraguay's defensive, low-block instincts
- Santa Clara conditions and any rotation
Team news
Turkey · ParaguayBets on this match
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