The model's pre-kickoff call was Turkey win at 47.1%, and it gave the actual result (Paraguay win) 24.8%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 31 books · as ofAll 31 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Turkey | Draw | Paraguay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 32.00 (best price) | 4.00 (best price) | 2.04 (best price) |
| 888sport | 17.00 | 3.90 | 1.30 |
| Bet Victor | 17.00 | 3.50 | 1.36 |
| Betclic (FR) | 14.75 | 3.32 | 1.35 |
| Betfair | 29.00 | 3.95 | 1.39 |
| Betfair | 19.00 | 3.35 | 1.53 |
| Betsson | 18.50 | 3.50 | 1.37 |
| Betway | 13.00 | 3.60 | 1.35 |
| BoyleSports | 17.00 | 3.75 | 1.33 |
| Casumo | 21.00 | 3.75 | 1.33 |
| Coolbet | 19.00 | 3.75 | 1.40 |
| Coral | 12.00 | 3.60 | 1.40 |
| Grosvenor | 14.00 | 3.35 | 1.36 |
| Ladbrokes | 15.00 | 3.90 | 1.33 |
| LeoVegas | 14.00 | 3.25 | 1.35 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 14.00 | 3.25 | 1.34 |
| LiveScore Bet | 19.00 | 3.55 | 1.30 |
| Matchbook | 32.00 (best price) | 4.00 (best price) | 1.36 |
| MyBookie.ag | 9.00 | 3.35 | 1.40 |
| Nordic Bet | 18.50 | 3.50 | 1.37 |
| Paddy Power | 19.00 | 3.60 | 1.33 |
| Pinnacle | 5.63 | 2.91 | 1.84 |
| PMU (FR) | 16.00 | 3.45 | 1.40 |
| Sky Bet | 18.00 | 3.60 | 1.33 |
| Smarkets | 21.01 | 3.90 | 2.04 (best price) |
| Tipico | 14.00 | 3.30 | 1.40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 16.00 | 3.45 | 1.40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 16.00 | 3.45 | 1.40 |
| Unibet (UK) | 19.00 | 3.60 | 1.36 |
| Virgin Bet | 19.00 | 3.55 | 1.30 |
| Winamax (DE) | 15.00 | 3.65 | 1.36 |
| Winamax (FR) | 15.00 | 3.55 | 1.32 |
Analysis
Turkey are the stronger side and the model backs them clearly — a flagged edge on the home win.
Group D, matchday 2 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. Turkey are the higher-rated side and a win would put them in strong shape for the knockout lanes; Paraguay will look to grind out a result.
Turkey (Elo 1691) are the class side here — a talented, attack-minded group rated 126 Elo points above Paraguay. The model’s xG line of 1.78–0.77 reflects expected control and gives them 61% to win.
Paraguay (Elo 1565) are organised and defensively stubborn but light going forward. The model gives them just 16% to win; their realistic path to points is a low-scoring stalemate.
Model view. Turkey 61% / 23% / 16%, xG 1.78–0.77, BTTS 45%, Under 2.5 53%. Turkey firmly favoured.
Model vs market. The data flags Turkey as the edge: 2.20 implies 45% but the model gives 61% — a 16% edge. The market is underrating the rating gap.
- Turkey ML at 2.20 — model 61%, fair ~1.64; the flagged value of the fixture
- Turkey -0.5 AH = the straight win, 61%, same fair ~1.64
- Under 2.5 at 1.60 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; short but supported if Paraguay sit deep
Avoid: Paraguay ML (16%), over 2.5 against a defensive opponent, BTTS yes short (model 45%).
Turkey at 2.20 against a 61% model probability is the standout edge in this fixture. Confirm Turkey’s attackers are fit and starting before backing the home win.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — Turkey likely favoured to push for the top two
- Turkey's attacking talent and whether the front line clicks
- Paraguay's defensive, low-block instincts
- Santa Clara conditions and any rotation