Turkey vs USA — Soccer 26

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Group D Fri 26 Jun, 02:00 UTC Los Angeles (Inglewood)

Turkey Elo 2026

VS +368 Elo

USA Elo 1658

38% 27% 35%

Turkey 38.4% Draw 27.0% USA 34.6%

Turkey win

38.4%

Draw

27.0%

USA win

34.6%

xG2.17 – 0.64 Over 2.550.3% Under 2.549.7% BTTS42.4%

Model vs market

our call = 10% model + 90% market here

The raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.

1X2	Turkey	Draw	USA
Raw model	72.1%	19.2%	8.8%
Market (de-vig)	34.6%	27.9%	37.5%
Our call	38.4%	27.0%	34.6%

Asian markets

model probabilities · derived from the score matrix

Handicaps from Turkey's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.

Handicap	Turkey	Push	USA
-1.5	48.3%	—	51.7%
-1	48.3%	23.8%	27.9%
-0.5	72.1%	—	27.9%
0	72.1%	19.2%	8.8%
+0.5	91.2%	—	8.8%
+1	91.2%	6.4%	2.3%
+1.5	97.7%	—	2.3%

Total	Over	Under
1.5	77.8%	22.2%
2.5	53.3%	46.7%
3.5	31.0%	69.0%

More markets

model probabilities · derived from the score matrix

Double chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.

Double chance	Prob
Turkey or Draw	91.2%
Draw or USA	27.9%
Turkey or USA (no draw)	80.8%
DNB — Turkey	89.2%
DNB — USA	10.8%

Likeliest score	Prob
2–0	14.2%
1–0	12.4%
3–0	10.3%
1–1	9.1%
2–1	9.0%
0–0	6.8%

Bookmaker odds

line-shopping · 27 books · as of Fri 5 Jun, 20:50 UTC

All 27 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★

Bookmaker	Turkey	Draw	USA	Over 2.5	Under 2.5
Best available	2.75 (best price)	3.50 (best price)	2.60 (best price)	2.01 (best price)	1.85 (best price)
888sport	2.70	3.20	2.45	—	—
Betclic (FR)	2.65	3.33	2.42	—	—
Betfred (UK)	2.75 (best price)	3.40	2.50	—	—
BetOnline.ag	2.75 (best price)	3.50 (best price)	2.60 (best price)	1.98	1.85 (best price)
BoyleSports	2.62	3.40	2.50	—	—
Casumo	2.70	3.30	2.50	1.94	1.76
Coral	2.75 (best price)	3.30	2.50	—	—
Everygame	2.70	3.45	2.55	—	—
Grosvenor	2.70	3.30	2.50	1.96	1.78
GTbets	2.71	3.41	2.59	2.01 (best price)	1.78
Ladbrokes	2.70	3.30	2.50	—	—
LeoVegas	2.70	3.30	2.50	1.94	1.76
LeoVegas (SE)	2.70	3.30	2.50	—	—
LiveScore Bet	2.70	3.30	2.50	—	—
Marathon Bet	2.70	3.30	2.51	—	—
MyBookie.ag	2.64	3.32	2.50	1.96	1.76
Paddy Power	2.70	3.40	2.45	—	—
Pinnacle	2.66	3.40	2.53	1.97	1.82
Sky Bet	2.70	3.40	2.45	—	—
Smarkets	2.60	3.35	2.38	—	—
Unibet (NL)	2.70	3.30	2.50	1.94	1.76
Unibet (SE)	2.70	3.30	2.50	1.94	1.76
Unibet (UK)	2.65	3.35	2.45	—	—
Virgin Bet	2.70	3.30	2.50	—	—
William Hill	2.70	3.20	2.45	2.00	1.75
Winamax (DE)	2.45	3.20	2.30	—	—
Winamax (FR)	2.40	3.10	2.25	—	—

Analysis

Group D finale with top-spot stakes — model edges Turkey and the price leaves a thin edge on the home win.

Group D, matchday 3 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. Two of the group’s stronger sides meet in a fixture that could settle top spot and the knockout seeding.

Turkey (Elo 1691) are rated marginally above the USA and the model makes them the favourite at 44%. The attack is the strength; if it clicks, they’re the side more likely to take the game by the scruff.

USA (Elo 1654) are 37 Elo points back and may be content to manage the game depending on standings. The model gives them 30% to win and a real share of the draw equity.

Model view. Turkey 44% / 26% / 30%, xG 1.42–1.13, BTTS 51%, Under 2.5 53%. Turkey-leaning but competitive.

Betting angle. The data flags a modest edge on Turkey: 2.70 implies 37% but the model gives 44% — a 6.7% edge. Real but not large.

Turkey ML at 2.70 — model 44%, fair ~2.27; the flagged value
Draw at 3.30 — model 26%, fair ~3.85, live if the USA play for a point
BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 51%, two functional attacks

Avoid: USA ML at a short price if they only need a draw, over 2.5 against a 53% under read, Turkey -1 chasing a margin.

Turkey are the model’s pick and the 2.70 price leaves a thin edge — but standings will dictate the USA’s approach. If the USA are playing for a draw, lean the draw and BTTS rather than the Turkey ML.