Model vs market
our call = 56% model + 44% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Paraguay | Draw | Australia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 48.8% | 27.9% | 23.4% |
| Market (de-vig) | 44.1% | 28.8% | 27.0% |
| Our call | 46.7% | 28.3% | 25.0% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Paraguay's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Paraguay | Push | Australia |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25.5% | — | 74.5% |
| -1 | 25.5% | 23.3% | 51.2% |
| -0.5 | 48.8% | — | 51.2% |
| 0 | 48.8% | 27.9% | 23.4% |
| +0.5 | 76.6% | — | 23.4% |
| +1 | 76.6% | 14.6% | 8.7% |
| +1.5 | 91.3% | — | 8.7% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.6% | 27.4% |
| 2.5 | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| 3.5 | 24.5% | 75.5% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Paraguay or Draw | 76.6% |
| Draw or Australia | 51.2% |
| Paraguay or Australia (no draw) | 72.1% |
| DNB — Paraguay | 67.6% |
| DNB — Australia | 32.4% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.3% |
| 1–0 | 11.3% |
| 2–0 | 9.4% |
| 2–1 | 9.3% |
| 0–0 | 9.2% |
| 0–1 | 6.9% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 27 books · as ofAll 27 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Paraguay | Draw | Australia | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 2.20 (best price) | 3.31 (best price) | 3.65 (best price) | 2.28 (best price) | 1.63 (best price) |
| 888sport | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.30 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.10 | 3.15 | 3.35 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.20 (best price) | 3.25 | 3.30 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.20 (best price) | 3.27 | 3.65 (best price) | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 2.20 (best price) | 3.00 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Casumo | 2.14 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.23 | 1.57 |
| Coral | 2.20 (best price) | 3.25 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Everygame | 2.20 (best price) | 3.20 | 3.50 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 2.14 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.28 (best price) | 1.57 |
| GTbets | 2.18 | 3.31 (best price) | 3.47 | 2.24 | 1.63 (best price) |
| Ladbrokes | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.40 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 2.14 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.23 | 1.57 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.14 | 3.20 | 3.40 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.14 | 3.20 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 2.17 | 3.16 | 3.40 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.15 | 3.16 | 3.36 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.30 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 3.13 | 3.45 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.30 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 2.12 | 3.00 | 3.30 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.14 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.23 | 1.57 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.14 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.23 | 1.57 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.15 | 3.15 | 3.35 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 2.14 | 3.20 | 3.40 | — | — |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.25 | 1.60 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.00 | 3.05 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.96 | 2.95 | 2.95 | — | — |
Analysis
Model rates Australia well above Paraguay — a big flagged edge on the away win in the Group D finale.
Group D, matchday 3 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. A final-round fixture that for both sides could decide a knockout place — and the model has a firm lean.
Paraguay (Elo 1565) are the group’s weakest side on the rating and host here as underdogs. Defensively stubborn but blunt going forward, the model gives them just 12% to win and an xG of only 0.64.
Australia (Elo 1723) are rated 158 Elo points higher — physical, organised, and dangerous on set pieces. The model’s xG line of 1.91 in their favour and a 67% win probability make them a clear choice.
Model view. Australia 12% / 21% / 67% (home/draw/away), xG 0.64–1.91, BTTS 40%, Under 2.5 53%. Firmly Australia.
Betting angle. The data flags Australia as the edge: 3.40 implies 29% but the model gives 67% — a 38.1% edge, the largest single edge across all these fixtures. The market is dramatically underrating the gap.
- Australia ML at 3.40 — model 67%, fair ~1.49; the headline value of the matchday
- Australia -0.5 AH = the straight win, 67%, same fair ~1.49
- Under 2.5 at 1.57 — model 53%, fair ~1.89, supported by Paraguay’s low block
Avoid: Paraguay ML at the home price (only 12%), over 2.5 against two cautious sides, BTTS yes short (40%).
Australia at 3.40 against a 67% model probability is the single largest price edge in this whole batch. The number is so wide it demands a team-news check — confirm Australia are at full strength and not rotating before stacking it.
Verify before betting
- Group D standings — both may need a result to advance
- Australia's physical, set-piece game vs Paraguay's low block
- Whether either side is already through and may rotate
- Santa Clara conditions for a likely cagey game
Team news
Paraguay · AustraliaNo recent news mentioning Paraguay or Australia.
Bets on this match
No bets placed.