Model vs market
our call = 36% model + 64% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Paraguay | Draw | Australia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 44.9% | 28.8% | 26.3% |
| Market (de-vig) | 33.3% | 42.6% | 24.1% |
| Our call | 37.5% | 37.6% | 24.9% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Paraguay's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Paraguay | Push | Australia |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.4% | — | 77.6% |
| -1 | 22.4% | 22.5% | 55.1% |
| -0.5 | 44.9% | — | 55.1% |
| 0 | 44.9% | 28.8% | 26.3% |
| +0.5 | 73.7% | — | 26.3% |
| +1 | 73.7% | 16.1% | 10.3% |
| +1.5 | 89.8% | — | 10.3% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.7% | 28.3% |
| 2.5 | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| 3.5 | 23.6% | 76.4% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Paraguay or Draw | 73.7% |
| Draw or Australia | 55.1% |
| Paraguay or Australia (no draw) | 71.2% |
| DNB — Paraguay | 63.0% |
| DNB — Australia | 37.0% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.7% |
| 1–0 | 11.0% |
| 0–0 | 9.6% |
| 2–1 | 9.0% |
| 2–0 | 8.6% |
| 0–1 | 7.7% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 40 books · as ofAll 40 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Paraguay | Draw | Australia | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 3.04 (best price) | 2.30 (best price) | 4.25 (best price) | 2.95 (best price) | 1.43 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 3.04 (best price) | 2.22 | 4.25 (best price) | — | — |
| 888sport | 2.70 | 2.25 | 3.60 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 2.75 | 2.15 | 3.70 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 2.95 | 2.18 | 3.90 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.83 | 2.20 | 3.83 | — | — |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 2.30 (best price) | 4.10 | — | — |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 2.30 (best price) | 4.10 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.00 | 2.20 | 3.75 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.90 | 2.25 | 3.95 | — | — |
| Betsson | 2.98 | 2.30 (best price) | 3.75 | 2.88 | 1.43 (best price) |
| Betway | 2.80 | 2.15 | 3.80 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 2.50 | 2.25 | 3.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 2.80 | 2.25 | 3.95 | — | — |
| Codere (IT) | 2.85 | 2.28 | 3.85 | — | — |
| Coolbet | 2.90 | 2.25 | 4.18 | — | — |
| Coral | 2.90 | 2.20 | 3.90 | — | — |
| Everygame | 2.90 | 2.25 | 3.90 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 2.75 | 2.23 | 3.85 | — | — |
| GTbets | 2.85 | 2.24 | 3.90 | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 2.90 | 2.20 | 3.80 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 2.80 | 2.25 | 3.95 | — | — |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.80 | 2.25 | 3.95 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.75 | 2.20 | 3.85 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 3.00 | 2.30 (best price) | 4.10 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.82 | 2.26 | 3.80 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 2.88 | 2.28 | 3.95 | 2.95 (best price) | 1.41 |
| Paddy Power | 2.80 | 2.20 | 3.80 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 2.91 | 2.15 | 3.88 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 2.75 | 2.20 | 3.85 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 2.80 | 2.20 | 3.80 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 3.00 | 2.30 (best price) | 4.10 | — | — |
| Tipico | 2.70 | 2.30 (best price) | 4.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.85 | 2.15 | 3.95 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.90 | 2.30 (best price) | 4.10 | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.90 | 2.30 (best price) | 4.10 | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.80 | 2.25 | 3.80 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 2.75 | 2.20 | 3.85 | — | — |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.80 | 1.36 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.85 | 2.20 | 3.75 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.85 | 2.20 | 3.70 | — | — |
Analysis
Model rates Australia well above Paraguay — a big flagged edge on the away win in the Group D finale.
Group D, matchday 3 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. A final-round fixture that for both sides could decide a knockout place — and the model has a firm lean.
Paraguay (Elo 1565) are the group’s weakest side on the rating and host here as underdogs. Defensively stubborn but blunt going forward, the model gives them just 12% to win and an xG of only 0.64.
Australia (Elo 1723) are rated 158 Elo points higher — physical, organised, and dangerous on set pieces. The model’s xG line of 1.91 in their favour and a 67% win probability make them a clear choice.
Model view. Australia 12% / 21% / 67% (home/draw/away), xG 0.64–1.91, BTTS 40%, Under 2.5 53%. Firmly Australia.
Model vs market. The data flags Australia as the edge: 3.40 implies 29% but the model gives 67% — a 38.1% edge, the largest single edge across all these fixtures. The market is dramatically underrating the gap.
- Australia ML at 3.40 — model 67%, fair ~1.49; the headline value of the matchday
- Australia -0.5 AH = the straight win, 67%, same fair ~1.49
- Under 2.5 at 1.57 — model 53%, fair ~1.89, supported by Paraguay’s low block
Avoid: Paraguay ML at the home price (only 12%), over 2.5 against two cautious sides, BTTS yes short (40%).
Australia at 3.40 against a 67% model probability is the single largest price edge in this whole batch. The number is so wide it demands a team-news check — confirm Australia are at full strength and not rotating before stacking it.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Group D standings — both may need a result to advance
- Australia's physical, set-piece game vs Paraguay's low block
- Whether either side is already through and may rotate
- Santa Clara conditions for a likely cagey game