Model vs market
our call = 33% model + 67% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Germany | Draw | Curaçao |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 80.0% | 14.9% | 5.1% |
| Market (de-vig) | 95.5% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Our call | 90.5% | 7.2% | 2.4% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Germany's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Germany | Push | Curaçao |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 58.1% | — | 41.9% |
| -1 | 58.1% | 21.9% | 20.0% |
| -0.5 | 80.0% | — | 20.0% |
| 0 | 80.0% | 14.9% | 5.1% |
| +0.5 | 94.9% | — | 5.1% |
| +1 | 94.9% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| +1.5 | 98.9% | — | 1.1% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.8% | 20.2% |
| 2.5 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 3.5 | 34.0% | 66.0% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Germany or Draw | 94.9% |
| Draw or Curaçao | 20.0% |
| Germany or Curaçao (no draw) | 85.0% |
| DNB — Germany | 94.0% |
| DNB — Curaçao | 6.0% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 15.8% |
| 3–0 | 12.9% |
| 1–0 | 12.3% |
| 4–0 | 7.9% |
| 2–1 | 7.8% |
| 1–1 | 6.9% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 32 books · as ofAll 32 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Germany | Draw | Curaçao | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.06 (best price) | 24.00 (best price) | 100.00 (best price) | 1.19 (best price) | 4.80 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.05 | 16.50 | 60.00 | — | — |
| 888sport | 1.04 | 13.00 | 56.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.03 | 13.00 | 56.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.02 | 18.00 | 43.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.06 (best price) | 24.00 (best price) | 55.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.06 (best price) | 24.00 (best price) | 55.00 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.04 | 15.00 | 41.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.04 | 19.00 | 51.00 | — | — |
| Betsson | 1.04 | 17.00 | 100.00 (best price) | 1.19 (best price) | 4.80 (best price) |
| Betway | 1.03 | 19.00 | 41.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.01 | 21.00 | 34.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.03 | 19.00 | 51.00 | — | — |
| Coolbet | 1.05 | 17.00 | 50.00 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.05 | 17.00 | 46.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.04 | 17.00 | 41.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.02 | 18.00 | 46.00 | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 1.05 | 15.00 | 41.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.03 | 19.00 | 51.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.03 | 19.00 | 51.00 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.05 | 16.75 | 61.00 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.04 | 17.00 | 100.00 (best price) | 1.19 (best price) | 4.80 (best price) |
| Paddy Power | 1.04 | 19.00 | 46.00 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.03 | 19.00 | 51.00 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 1.03 | 19.00 | 29.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.05 | 22.99 | 54.95 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.02 | 21.00 | 49.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.05 | 19.00 | 51.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.03 | 19.00 | 51.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.02 | 15.00 | 67.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.04 | 13.00 | 56.00 | 1.17 | 4.75 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.03 | 15.00 | 35.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.03 | 15.00 | 35.00 | — | — |
Analysis
A textbook Pot 1 vs Pot 4 opener. The risk isn't Germany losing, it's Germany shadowing through it.
Group E opens with Germany at NRG Stadium in Houston. Midday kickoff in June — heat is the unspoken variable.
Germany are in a quieter cycle than their decade-long peak (2010–2018), but the squad depth is still substantial and the Elo (1734) reflects the post-Euro 2024 consolidation. Tactically a possession base with vertical patterns through the half-spaces, fullback overlaps, and a press that has been more disciplined under the current cycle.
Curaçao are at their first World Cup. The squad leans heavily on Dutch-football diaspora — many KNVB academy products who chose Curaçao over Netherlands at international level. That makes them a more tactically sophisticated side than their rating (1500, the baseline) suggests; the issue is depth and competitive sharpness, not coaching.
Model view. Germany 81% / 15% / 4%, xG 2.21–0.34. Same caveat as Canada–BiH: the away xG floor is mechanical, the real number is probably 0.7–0.9.
Betting angle. Germany ML will be 1.20-ish, no edge. Where to look:
- Germany -1.5 AH at 1.85+ — model implies ~58% win-by-2, fair price ~1.72
- Over 2.5 at 1.85+ — Germany at their level grind out 3-0/3-1 against weaker sides about 55% of the time
- BTTS-No at 1.65+ — the model says 74%, the floor is high
Avoid: Germany -2.5 AH (only ~42% implied), Curaçao DNB (asymmetric downside, weak edge).
Verify before betting
- Germany XI rotation — is the manager treating this as a 90-minute run-out?
- Curaçao's roster — substantial Dutch-Eredivisie diaspora may surprise tactically
- Houston heat and humidity at midday kickoff
- Has Germany's high-press recovered post-Euro 2024?
Team news
Germany · CuraçaoBets on this match
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