The model's pre-kickoff call was Germany win at 90.5%, and it gave the actual result (Germany win) 90.5%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 41 books · as ofAll 41 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Germany | Draw | Curaçao | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.05 (best price) | 29.00 (best price) | 70.00 (best price) | 1.20 (best price) | 4.65 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.03 | 22.00 | 70.00 (best price) | — | — |
| 888sport | 1.03 | 17.00 | 51.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.02 | 13.00 | 67.00 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.05 (best price) | 22.00 | 42.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.04 | 23.00 | 40.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.05 (best price) | 27.00 | 50.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.05 (best price) | 27.00 | 50.00 | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.03 | 17.00 | 36.00 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.03 | 15.00 | 41.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.04 | 22.00 | 44.00 | — | — |
| Betsson | 1.05 (best price) | 17.00 | 55.00 | 1.20 (best price) | 4.65 (best price) |
| Betway | 1.02 | 29.00 (best price) | 51.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.03 | 17.00 | 41.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.03 | 20.00 | 46.00 | — | — |
| Codere (IT) | 1.04 | 18.00 | 35.00 | — | — |
| Coolbet | 1.05 (best price) | 17.00 | 50.00 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.04 | 17.00 | 46.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.04 | 19.00 | 29.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.02 | 19.00 | 46.00 | — | — |
| GTbets | 1.04 | 18.19 | 43.79 | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 1.04 | 17.00 | 51.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.03 | 20.00 | 46.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.03 | 20.00 | 46.00 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.02 | 19.00 | 46.00 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.05 (best price) | 27.00 | 50.00 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.03 | 15.25 | 41.00 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.05 (best price) | 17.00 | 55.00 | 1.20 (best price) | 4.65 (best price) |
| Paddy Power | 1.03 | 21.00 | 36.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.05 (best price) | 22.50 | 43.50 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.03 | 14.00 | 29.00 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 1.02 | 29.00 (best price) | 34.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.05 (best price) | 25.97 | 54.95 | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.04 | 22.00 | 40.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.04 | 23.00 | 40.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.04 | 25.00 | 46.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.04 | 25.00 | 46.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.03 | 14.00 | 51.00 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.02 | 19.00 | 46.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.03 | 19.00 | 46.00 | 1.18 | 4.60 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.05 (best price) | 25.00 | 40.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.03 | 22.00 | 35.00 | — | — |
Analysis
A textbook Pot 1 vs Pot 4 opener. The risk isn't Germany losing, it's Germany shadowing through it.
Group E opens with Germany at NRG Stadium in Houston. Midday kickoff in June — heat is the unspoken variable.
Germany are in a quieter cycle than their decade-long peak (2010–2018), but the squad depth is still substantial and the Elo (1734) reflects the post-Euro 2024 consolidation. Tactically a possession base with vertical patterns through the half-spaces, fullback overlaps, and a press that has been more disciplined under the current cycle.
Curaçao are at their first World Cup. The squad leans heavily on Dutch-football diaspora — many KNVB academy products who chose Curaçao over Netherlands at international level. That makes them a more tactically sophisticated side than their rating (1500, the baseline) suggests; the issue is depth and competitive sharpness, not coaching.
Model view. Germany 81% / 15% / 4%, xG 2.21–0.34. Same caveat as Canada–BiH: the away xG floor is mechanical, the real number is probably 0.7–0.9.
Model vs market. Germany ML will be 1.20-ish, no edge. Where to look:
- Germany -1.5 AH at 1.85+ — model implies ~58% win-by-2, fair price ~1.72
- Over 2.5 at 1.85+ — Germany at their level grind out 3-0/3-1 against weaker sides about 55% of the time
- BTTS-No at 1.65+ — the model says 74%, the floor is high
Avoid: Germany -2.5 AH (only ~42% implied), Curaçao DNB (asymmetric downside, weak edge).
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Germany XI rotation — is the manager treating this as a 90-minute run-out?
- Curaçao's roster — substantial Dutch-Eredivisie diaspora may surprise tactically
- Houston heat and humidity at midday kickoff
- Has Germany's high-press recovered post-Euro 2024?