Model vs market
our call = 33% model + 67% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Ivory Coast | Draw | Ecuador |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 17.9% | 25.7% | 56.4% |
| Market (de-vig) | 25.8% | 33.4% | 40.8% |
| Our call | 23.3% | 30.9% | 45.9% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Ivory Coast's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Ivory Coast | Push | Ecuador |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6.1% | — | 93.9% |
| -1 | 6.1% | 11.9% | 82.0% |
| -0.5 | 17.9% | — | 82.0% |
| 0 | 17.9% | 25.7% | 56.4% |
| +0.5 | 43.6% | — | 56.4% |
| +1 | 43.6% | 24.3% | 32.1% |
| +1.5 | 67.9% | — | 32.1% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| 2.5 | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| 3.5 | 26.2% | 73.8% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Ivory Coast or Draw | 43.6% |
| Draw or Ecuador | 82.0% |
| Ivory Coast or Ecuador (no draw) | 74.3% |
| DNB — Ivory Coast | 24.2% |
| DNB — Ecuador | 75.8% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.2% |
| 0–1 | 11.9% |
| 0–2 | 11.1% |
| 1–2 | 9.7% |
| 0–0 | 8.5% |
| 0–3 | 6.3% |
Edges vs market
value spotted| Selection | Our call | Market | Odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.6% · raw 47.9% | 31.5% | 2.92 | +5.1% raw +16.5% |
| Ecuador win | 45.9% · raw 56.4% | 40.8% | 2.35 | +5.1% raw +15.6% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 37 books · as ofAll 37 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Ivory Coast | Draw | Ecuador | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 3.85 (best price) | 3.00 (best price) | 2.54 (best price) | 2.92 (best price) | 1.44 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 3.75 | 2.84 | 2.44 | — | — |
| 888sport | 3.30 | 2.90 | 2.25 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 3.40 | 2.90 | 2.38 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 3.70 | 2.75 | 2.39 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.63 | 2.93 | 2.25 | — | — |
| Betfair | 3.75 | 2.92 | 2.54 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 3.75 | 2.92 | 2.54 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.40 | 2.88 | 2.38 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.78 | 2.76 | 2.45 | — | — |
| Betsson | 3.55 | 2.90 | 2.45 | 2.92 (best price) | 1.42 |
| Betway | 3.60 | 2.70 | 2.30 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 3.60 | 2.75 | 2.30 | — | — |
| Casumo | 3.75 | 2.80 | 2.32 | — | — |
| Codere (IT) | 3.65 | 2.95 | 2.30 | — | — |
| Coolbet | 3.60 | 3.00 (best price) | 2.40 | — | — |
| Coral | 3.60 | 2.90 | 2.30 | — | — |
| Everygame | 3.65 | 2.75 | 2.40 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 3.70 | 2.75 | 2.30 | — | — |
| GTbets | 3.63 | 2.85 | 2.33 | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 3.50 | 2.87 | 2.30 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 3.75 | 2.80 | 2.32 | — | — |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.75 | 2.80 | 2.32 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 3.75 | 2.84 | 2.42 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 3.55 | 2.86 | 2.24 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 3.55 | 2.90 | 2.45 | 2.92 (best price) | 1.42 |
| Paddy Power | 3.60 | 2.75 | 2.40 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 3.78 | 2.80 | 2.43 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 3.75 | 2.80 | 2.32 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 3.50 | 2.75 | 2.38 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 3.75 | 2.92 | 2.54 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.70 | 2.80 | 2.35 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.85 (best price) | 2.85 | 2.35 | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.80 | 2.85 | 2.35 | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.60 | 2.80 | 2.30 | — | — |
| William Hill | 3.30 | 2.90 | 2.25 | 2.62 | 1.44 (best price) |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.55 | 2.80 | 2.30 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.50 | 2.75 | 2.25 | — | — |
Analysis
The most balanced match of Day 4 on paper. Two well-coached, defensively solid sides.
Group E’s second match at Lincoln Financial Field. Neutral venue, tight Elo gap (34 points), the model’s idea of a clean pick’em.
Ivory Coast won AFCON 2023 on home soil and the squad core has stayed largely intact. They are a balanced 4-3-3 with strong wide attacking play, a midfield destroyer, and one of the more underrated GK situations of the tournament. Elo (1736) is at the top end of what they’ve ever rated; the AFCON win is doing meaningful work.
Ecuador are the South American dark horse profile this cycle — eliminated England at Qatar 2022 group stage, advanced past the round of 16. The current squad blends the Caicedo/Sarmiento generation with veterans like Estupiñán at fullback. Style is a compact mid-block, low possession, transitions through the front three. Elo (1702) is fair.
Model view. Ivory Coast 43% / 26% / 30%, xG 1.41–1.14, BTTS 51%. Genuine coin flip with slight CIV lean from being listed first (no actual venue advantage).
Betting angle. Small edges only. The model is fair here, the market will be efficient.
- Draw at 3.30+ — model 26%, fair ~3.85, often pushed shorter on tactical fixtures
- BTTS-Yes at 2.00+ — model 51%, fair ~1.96
- Under 2.5 at 1.95+ — model 53%, fair ~1.89, both sides cagey opener-style
Avoid: either ML. The 1.85/1.95 range on a 43% probability is below fair.
Verify before betting
- Ivory Coast's central midfield trio — Kessié role definition
- Ecuador's young core (Sarmiento, Caicedo) — match fitness
- Philadelphia evening temperature and pitch condition
- Both sides historically dip in tournament openers — check 2022/AFCON 2023 patterns
Team news
Ivory Coast · EcuadorNo recent news mentioning Ivory Coast or Ecuador.
Bets on this match
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