The model's pre-kickoff call was Ecuador win at 42.3%, and it gave the actual result (Ivory Coast win) 26.3%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 41 books · as ofAll 41 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Ivory Coast | Draw | Ecuador | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 3.40 (best price) | 2.95 (best price) | 2.72 (best price) | 3.05 (best price) | 1.41 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 3.38 | 2.90 | 2.60 | — | — |
| 888sport | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.40 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 3.10 | 2.88 | 2.55 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 3.20 | 2.83 | 2.58 | 3.05 (best price) | 1.39 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.25 | 2.90 | 2.65 | — | — |
| Betfair | 3.40 (best price) | 2.94 | 2.72 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 3.40 (best price) | 2.94 | 2.72 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 3.00 | 2.40 | 2.40 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.10 | 2.75 | 2.60 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.30 | 2.95 (best price) | 2.58 | — | — |
| Betsson | 3.25 | 2.90 | 2.62 | 2.95 | 1.41 (best price) |
| Betway | 3.10 | 2.80 | 2.50 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 3.25 | 2.75 | 2.40 | — | — |
| Casumo | 3.25 | 2.85 | 2.55 | — | — |
| Codere (IT) | 3.10 | 2.80 | 2.65 | — | — |
| Coolbet | 3.40 (best price) | 2.90 | 2.62 | — | — |
| Coral | 3.25 | 2.87 | 2.50 | — | — |
| Everygame | 3.25 | 2.80 | 2.60 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.50 | — | — |
| GTbets | 3.27 | 2.85 | 2.46 | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 3.25 | 2.80 | 2.45 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 3.25 | 2.85 | 2.55 | — | — |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.25 | 2.85 | 2.55 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.50 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 3.40 (best price) | 2.94 | 2.72 (best price) | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 3.10 | 2.88 | 2.56 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 3.25 | 2.90 | 2.62 | 2.95 | 1.41 (best price) |
| Paddy Power | 3.20 | 2.75 | 2.50 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 3.32 | 2.91 | 2.65 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.55 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.50 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 3.40 (best price) | 2.94 | 2.72 (best price) | — | — |
| Tipico | 3.00 | 2.85 | 2.70 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.25 | 2.90 | 2.65 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.35 | 2.90 | 2.60 | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.35 | 2.90 | 2.60 | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.25 | 2.75 | 2.60 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.50 | — | — |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 2.90 | 2.40 | 2.70 | 1.40 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.20 | 2.90 | 2.60 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.15 | 2.85 | 2.60 | — | — |
Analysis
The most balanced match of Day 4 on paper. Two well-coached, defensively solid sides.
Group E’s second match at Lincoln Financial Field. Neutral venue, tight Elo gap (34 points), the model’s idea of a clean pick’em.
Ivory Coast won AFCON 2023 on home soil and the squad core has stayed largely intact. They are a balanced 4-3-3 with strong wide attacking play, a midfield destroyer, and one of the more underrated GK situations of the tournament. Elo (1736) is at the top end of what they’ve ever rated; the AFCON win is doing meaningful work.
Ecuador are the South American dark horse profile this cycle — eliminated England at Qatar 2022 group stage, advanced past the round of 16. The current squad blends the Caicedo/Sarmiento generation with veterans like Estupiñán at fullback. Style is a compact mid-block, low possession, transitions through the front three. Elo (1702) is fair.
Model view. Ivory Coast 43% / 26% / 30%, xG 1.41–1.14, BTTS 51%. Genuine coin flip with slight CIV lean from being listed first (no actual venue advantage).
Model vs market. Small edges only. The model is fair here, the market will be efficient.
- Draw at 3.30+ — model 26%, fair ~3.85, often pushed shorter on tactical fixtures
- BTTS-Yes at 2.00+ — model 51%, fair ~1.96
- Under 2.5 at 1.95+ — model 53%, fair ~1.89, both sides cagey opener-style
Avoid: either ML. The 1.85/1.95 range on a 43% probability is below fair.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Ivory Coast's central midfield trio — Kessié role definition
- Ecuador's young core (Sarmiento, Caicedo) — match fitness
- Philadelphia evening temperature and pitch condition
- Both sides historically dip in tournament openers — check 2022/AFCON 2023 patterns