Model vs market
our call = 31% model + 69% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Germany | Draw | Ivory Coast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 46.7% | 28.4% | 24.9% |
| Market (de-vig) | 63.4% | 21.4% | 15.2% |
| Our call | 58.3% | 23.6% | 18.1% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Germany's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Germany | Push | Ivory Coast |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23.8% | — | 76.3% |
| -1 | 23.8% | 22.9% | 53.3% |
| -0.5 | 46.7% | — | 53.3% |
| 0 | 46.7% | 28.4% | 24.9% |
| +0.5 | 75.1% | — | 24.9% |
| +1 | 75.1% | 15.4% | 9.5% |
| +1.5 | 90.5% | — | 9.5% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| 2.5 | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| 3.5 | 23.8% | 76.1% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Germany or Draw | 75.1% |
| Draw or Ivory Coast | 53.3% |
| Germany or Ivory Coast (no draw) | 71.6% |
| DNB — Germany | 65.2% |
| DNB — Ivory Coast | 34.8% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.5% |
| 1–0 | 11.2% |
| 0–0 | 9.4% |
| 2–1 | 9.1% |
| 2–0 | 9.0% |
| 0–1 | 7.4% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 30 books · as ofAll 30 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Germany | Draw | Ivory Coast | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.57 (best price) | 4.50 (best price) | 6.50 (best price) | 1.81 (best price) | 2.05 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.56 | 4.32 | 5.86 | 1.81 (best price) | 2.04 |
| 888sport | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.50 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.75 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.56 | 4.50 (best price) | 5.90 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.56 | 4.50 (best price) | 5.90 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.53 | 4.20 | 6.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.56 | 4.45 | 6.00 | 1.81 (best price) | 2.03 |
| BoyleSports | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.53 | 4.20 | 6.25 | 1.76 | 1.94 |
| Coral | 1.55 | 4.20 | 5.75 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.57 (best price) | 4.40 | 5.50 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.51 | 4.10 | 6.10 | 1.79 | 1.97 |
| GTbets | 1.54 | 4.30 | 5.89 | 1.79 | 1.99 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.75 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.53 | 4.20 | 6.25 | 1.76 | 1.94 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.53 | 4.20 | 6.25 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.52 | 4.20 | 5.70 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.51 | 4.10 | 5.60 | 1.76 | 1.95 |
| Paddy Power | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.50 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.55 | 4.24 | 5.22 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.53 | 4.20 | 6.25 | 1.70 | 1.88 |
| Sky Bet | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.75 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.57 (best price) | 4.50 (best price) | 5.90 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.52 | 4.30 | 5.90 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.54 | 4.30 | 6.50 (best price) | 1.76 | 1.94 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.53 | 4.30 | 6.50 (best price) | 1.76 | 1.94 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.75 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.50 | 1.70 | 2.05 (best price) |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.47 | 4.10 | 5.20 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.46 | 4.00 | 5.00 | — | — |
Analysis
A dead-even Group E clash the market frames as Germany-heavy — the model loves the Ivory Coast price.
Group E, matchday 2 at BMO Field in Toronto. Germany carry the brand and the short price, but the model sees this as a genuine coin-flip between two evenly-rated sides.
Germany (Elo 1734) are the marquee name and bookmaker favourite at 1.53, but the model rates them two Elo points below the Ivory Coast. The talent is there; the model simply doesn’t see a favourite’s gap.
Ivory Coast (Elo 1736) are the reigning AFCON champions and rated fractionally above Germany. Athletic, deep, and confident, the model gives them 37% — and the 5.78 away price looks far too long.
Model view. Germany 36% / 27% / 37% (home/draw/away), xG 1.27–1.28, BTTS 52%, Under 2.5 53%. As even as it gets, with a faint Ivorian tilt.
Betting angle. The data flags the Ivory Coast as the edge: 5.78 implies 17% but the model gives 37% — a 19.8% edge, driven entirely by the market over-weighting the German name.
- Ivory Coast ML at 5.78 — model 37%, fair ~2.70; the headline value of the fixture
- Draw at 4.20 — model 27%, fair ~3.70; live in a coin-flip the market prices as lopsided
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 52%, two willing attacks at parity
Avoid: Germany -0.5 at 1.53 (only 36% to win), backing Germany as a clear favourite on reputation.
This is a textbook name-fade: the market has Germany at 65% implied, the model at 36%, and the Ivory Coast at 5.78 is huge value. Confirm both squads are full-strength — the rating says there’s no favourite here.
Verify before betting
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — this likely shapes the group's top two
- Ivory Coast's AFCON-winning core and its fitness
- Germany's settled XI vs the model's even rating
- Toronto turf surface and any rotation
Team news
Germany · Ivory CoastBets on this match
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