Group E, matchday 2 at BMO Field in Toronto. Germany carry the brand and the short price, but the model sees this as a genuine coin-flip between two evenly-rated sides.

Germany (Elo 1734) are the marquee name and bookmaker favourite at 1.53, but the model rates them two Elo points below the Ivory Coast. The talent is there; the model simply doesn’t see a favourite’s gap.

Ivory Coast (Elo 1736) are the reigning AFCON champions and rated fractionally above Germany. Athletic, deep, and confident, the model gives them 37% — and the 5.78 away price looks far too long.

Model view. Germany 36% / 27% / 37% (home/draw/away), xG 1.27–1.28, BTTS 52%, Under 2.5 53%. As even as it gets, with a faint Ivorian tilt.

Model vs market. The data flags the Ivory Coast as the edge: 5.78 implies 17% but the model gives 37% — a 19.8% edge, driven entirely by the market over-weighting the German name.

• Ivory Coast ML at 5.78 — model 37%, fair ~2.70; the headline value of the fixture
• Draw at 4.20 — model 27%, fair ~3.70; live in a coin-flip the market prices as lopsided
• BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 52%, two willing attacks at parity

Avoid: Germany -0.5 at 1.53 (only 36% to win), backing Germany as a clear favourite on reputation.

This is a textbook name-fade: the market has Germany at 65% implied, the model at 36%, and the Ivory Coast at 5.78 is huge value. Confirm both squads are full-strength — the rating says there’s no favourite here.