Model vs market
our call = 56% model + 44% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Ecuador | Draw | Curaçao |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 86.1% | 11.3% | 2.7% |
| Market (de-vig) | 81.8% | 12.7% | 5.5% |
| Our call | 84.2% | 11.9% | 3.9% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Ecuador's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Ecuador | Push | Curaçao |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 66.5% | — | 33.5% |
| -1 | 66.5% | 19.5% | 14.0% |
| -0.5 | 86.1% | — | 14.0% |
| 0 | 86.1% | 11.3% | 2.7% |
| +0.5 | 97.3% | — | 2.7% |
| +1 | 97.3% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| +1.5 | 99.5% | — | 0.5% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 81.3% | 18.7% |
| 2.5 | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| 3.5 | 36.5% | 63.5% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Ecuador or Draw | 97.3% |
| Draw or Curaçao | 14.0% |
| Ecuador or Curaçao (no draw) | 88.7% |
| DNB — Ecuador | 97.0% |
| DNB — Curaçao | 3.0% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 17.2% |
| 3–0 | 15.4% |
| 1–0 | 12.3% |
| 4–0 | 10.4% |
| 2–1 | 6.1% |
| 5–0 | 5.6% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 30 books · as ofAll 30 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Ecuador | Draw | Curaçao | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.27 (best price) | 7.50 (best price) | 17.50 (best price) | 1.68 (best price) | 2.35 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.19 | 7.06 | 17.50 (best price) | 1.66 | 2.27 |
| 888sport | 1.18 | 6.00 | 13.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.18 | 6.10 | 13.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.21 | 6.80 | 14.50 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.21 | 6.80 | 14.50 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.20 | 6.00 | 15.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.24 | 6.62 | 13.50 | 1.65 | 2.35 (best price) |
| BoyleSports | 1.18 | 6.50 | 17.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.21 | 6.50 | 14.00 | 1.57 | 2.23 |
| Coral | 1.22 | 6.50 | 13.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.20 | 7.50 (best price) | 12.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.20 | 6.25 | 14.00 | 1.60 | 2.28 |
| GTbets | 1.27 (best price) | 6.21 | 13.25 | 1.68 (best price) | 2.15 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.22 | 6.50 | 13.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.21 | 6.50 | 14.00 | 1.57 | 2.23 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.21 | 6.50 | 14.00 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.17 | 6.45 | 16.25 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.19 | 6.10 | 13.25 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 1.18 | 6.00 | 15.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.19 | 7.00 | 11.33 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.21 | 6.50 | 14.00 | 1.51 | 2.15 |
| Sky Bet | 1.20 | 6.25 | 12.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.21 | 6.80 | 14.49 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.19 | 6.10 | 13.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.22 | 6.75 | 15.00 | 1.57 | 2.23 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.21 | 6.75 | 15.00 | 1.57 | 2.23 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.19 | 6.00 | 14.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.18 | 6.00 | 13.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.16 | 6.25 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.15 | 6.00 | 9.50 | — | — |
Analysis
Ecuador are heavy favourites — the value sits on the under, not the short ML.
Group E, matchday 2 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. Ecuador are strong favourites against the group’s lowest-rated side; the question is how many they convert.
Ecuador (Elo 1702) are a well-drilled, physical South American outfit and clear favourites at 1.20. The xG line of 2.08–0.47 is dominant but the model’s 75% win number sits below the ~83% the price implies.
Curaçao (Elo 1500) are the group’s weakest team and a tournament debutant-level side on the rating. The model gives them just 7% and expects a deep, damage-limitation block.
Model view. Ecuador 75% / 17% / 7%, xG 2.08–0.47, BTTS 33%, Under 2.5 53%. Ecuador heavily favoured.
Betting angle. The flagged edge is the under, not the win. Under 2.5 at 2.23 implies 45% but the model gives 53% — an 8.3% edge. A controlled win over a deep block keeps the total down.
- Under 2.5 at 2.23 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; the flagged value
- Ecuador -1 AH ~1.7 — the 75% win plus xG margin supports a one-goal cushion
- BTTS no ~1.6 — model 67% no, Curaçao likely shut out
Avoid: Ecuador ML at 1.20 (no flagged edge — fairly priced), Ecuador -2.5 chasing a rout the xG doesn’t quite project, over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
Ecuador win this comfortably but the value is the under at 2.23, not the 1.20 ML. If Ecuador rotate as expected favourites, the under only gets stronger.
Verify before betting
- Ecuador's matchday-1 result — a win likely puts qualification in sight
- Curaçao's deep defensive block and how low they sit
- Kansas City heat for the goal-total read
- Ecuador rotation against clearly weaker opposition
Team news
Ecuador · CuraçaoNo recent news mentioning Ecuador or Curaçao.
Bets on this match
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