Model vs market
our call = 26% model + 74% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Curaçao | Draw | Ivory Coast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 11.5% | 21.4% | 67.1% |
| Market (de-vig) | 4.0% | 9.4% | 86.5% |
| Our call | 6.0% | 12.5% | 81.5% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Curaçao's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Curaçao | Push | Ivory Coast |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 3.4% | — | 96.7% |
| -1 | 3.4% | 8.1% | 88.5% |
| -0.5 | 11.5% | — | 88.5% |
| 0 | 11.5% | 21.4% | 67.1% |
| +0.5 | 32.9% | — | 67.1% |
| +1 | 32.9% | 24.3% | 42.8% |
| +1.5 | 57.2% | — | 42.8% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.9% | 23.1% |
| 2.5 | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| 3.5 | 29.7% | 70.3% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Curaçao or Draw | 32.9% |
| Draw or Ivory Coast | 88.5% |
| Curaçao or Ivory Coast (no draw) | 78.5% |
| DNB — Curaçao | 14.6% |
| DNB — Ivory Coast | 85.4% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 0–2 | 13.1% |
| 0–1 | 12.1% |
| 1–1 | 10.2% |
| 1–2 | 9.5% |
| 0–3 | 8.9% |
| 0–0 | 7.2% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 40 books · as ofAll 40 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Curaçao | Draw | Ivory Coast | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 25.00 (best price) | 9.40 (best price) | 1.18 (best price) | 1.52 (best price) | 2.65 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 25.00 (best price) | 8.75 | 1.16 | — | — |
| 888sport | 19.00 | 7.50 | 1.12 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 20.00 | 8.00 | 1.12 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 18.00 | 8.00 | 1.14 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 18.75 | 8.25 | 1.14 | — | — |
| Betfair | 21.00 | 9.40 (best price) | 1.18 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 21.00 | 9.40 (best price) | 1.18 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 15.00 | 7.50 | 1.17 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 17.50 | 9.00 | 1.15 | — | — |
| Betsson | 24.00 | 7.30 | 1.17 | 1.49 | 2.65 (best price) |
| Betway | 15.00 | 8.00 | 1.14 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 19.00 | 7.00 | 1.12 | — | — |
| Casumo | 19.00 | 8.50 | 1.14 | — | — |
| Codere (IT) | 17.00 | 7.80 | 1.16 | — | — |
| Coolbet | 18.00 | 8.00 | 1.18 (best price) | — | — |
| Coral | 15.00 | 8.50 | 1.15 | — | — |
| Everygame | 17.00 | 8.50 | 1.15 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 18.00 | 8.50 | 1.13 | — | — |
| GTbets | 19.12 | 8.09 | 1.17 | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 15.00 | 8.50 | 1.15 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 19.00 | 8.50 | 1.14 | — | — |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 19.00 | 8.50 | 1.14 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 18.00 | 8.50 | 1.12 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 21.00 | 9.40 (best price) | 1.18 (best price) | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 17.00 | 7.60 | 1.15 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 18.50 | 8.10 | 1.16 | 1.52 (best price) | 2.60 |
| Paddy Power | 17.00 | 8.50 | 1.12 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 17.21 | 8.06 | 1.14 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 18.00 | 8.50 | 1.12 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 13.00 | 8.50 | 1.13 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 20.00 | 9.20 | 1.18 (best price) | — | — |
| Tipico | 19.00 | 8.50 | 1.13 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 19.00 | 8.30 | 1.14 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 21.00 | 9.00 | 1.15 | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 21.00 | 9.00 | 1.15 | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 18.00 | 7.50 | 1.15 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 18.00 | 8.50 | 1.12 | — | — |
| William Hill | 21.00 | 7.50 | 1.14 | 1.44 | 2.50 |
| Winamax (DE) | 14.00 | 8.00 | 1.14 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 14.00 | 8.00 | 1.14 | — | — |
Analysis
Ivory Coast should win the Group E finale at a cramp price — the value is on the under.
Group E, matchday 3 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The reigning AFCON champions face the group’s weakest side in a fixture they should control comfortably.
Curaçao (Elo 1500) are the lowest-rated team in the group and host as heavy underdogs. The model gives them just 4% to win and expects a deep block trying to limit the damage.
Ivory Coast (Elo 1736) are 236 Elo points clear and priced at 1.22. The xG line of 2.22–0.33 is dominant, but the model’s 81% win number sits just under the price’s implied ~82%.
Model view. Ivory Coast 4% / 15% / 81% (home/draw/away), xG 0.33–2.22, BTTS 25%, Under 2.5 53%. Firmly Ivory Coast.
Model vs market. The flagged edge is the under: 2.10 implies 48% but the model gives 53% — a 5.5% edge. A controlled win over a low block keeps the goal total down.
- Under 2.5 at 2.10 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; the flagged value
- Ivory Coast -1.5 AH ~1.8 — the 2.22–0.33 xG margin supports a multi-goal win if first-choice
- BTTS no short — model 75% no, Curaçao likely shut out
Avoid: Ivory Coast ML at 1.22 (no flagged edge — fairly priced), Curaçao +1.5 chase, over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
The Ivory Coast win comfortably but the edge is the under at 2.10, not the cramped ML. Watch for rotation if they’ve already topped the group — a rested XI strengthens the under further.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Group E standings — Ivory Coast may already be through and rotating
- Curaçao's qualification math and whether they must chase
- Philadelphia conditions for the goal-total read
- Ivory Coast's first-choice attackers vs a rested XI