Model vs market
our call = 25% model + 75% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Ecuador | Draw | Germany |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 39.7% | 29.8% | 30.5% |
| Market (de-vig) | 25.7% | 23.9% | 50.4% |
| Our call | 29.2% | 25.4% | 45.4% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Ecuador's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Ecuador | Push | Germany |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18.4% | — | 81.6% |
| -1 | 18.4% | 21.3% | 60.3% |
| -0.5 | 39.7% | — | 60.3% |
| 0 | 39.7% | 29.8% | 30.5% |
| +0.5 | 69.5% | — | 30.5% |
| +1 | 69.5% | 18.0% | 12.5% |
| +1.5 | 87.5% | — | 12.5% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.2% | 29.8% |
| 2.5 | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| 3.5 | 22.0% | 78.0% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Ecuador or Draw | 69.5% |
| Draw or Germany | 60.3% |
| Ecuador or Germany (no draw) | 70.2% |
| DNB — Ecuador | 56.5% |
| DNB — Germany | 43.5% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.1% |
| 1–0 | 10.7% |
| 0–0 | 10.3% |
| 0–1 | 8.9% |
| 2–1 | 8.4% |
| 2–0 | 7.6% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 40 books · as ofAll 40 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Ecuador | Draw | Germany | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 3.90 (best price) | 4.10 (best price) | 2.00 (best price) | 1.83 (best price) | 2.07 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 3.85 | 4.02 | 1.97 | 1.82 | 2.06 |
| 888sport | 3.50 | 3.75 | 1.85 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 3.80 | 3.60 | 1.91 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.90 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.55 | 4.05 | 1.92 | — | — |
| Betfair | 3.90 (best price) | 4.10 (best price) | 1.97 | — | — |
| Betfair | 3.90 (best price) | 4.10 (best price) | 1.97 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.50 | 3.75 | 1.83 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.67 | 3.95 | 1.96 | 1.83 (best price) | 2.04 |
| Betsson | 3.70 | 3.75 | 1.98 | 1.82 | 2.00 |
| Betway | 3.40 | 4.00 | 1.85 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 3.75 | 3.60 | 1.87 | — | — |
| Casumo | 3.75 | 4.00 | 1.88 | 1.74 | 2.04 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.60 | 3.85 | 1.96 | 1.76 | 1.92 |
| Coolbet | 3.70 | 4.05 | 1.98 | 1.83 (best price) | 2.04 |
| Coral | 3.60 | 3.75 | 1.95 | — | — |
| Everygame | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.90 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 3.65 | 3.90 | 1.85 | 1.74 | 2.04 |
| GTbets | 3.56 | 3.73 | 2.00 (best price) | 1.81 | 1.97 |
| Ladbrokes | 3.60 | 3.70 | 1.95 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 3.75 | 4.00 | 1.88 | 1.74 | 2.04 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.75 | 4.00 | 1.88 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.65 | 3.90 | 1.85 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 3.90 (best price) | 4.10 (best price) | 1.97 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 3.55 | 3.80 | 1.94 | 1.77 | 1.94 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.75 | 3.85 | 1.95 | 1.78 | 2.05 |
| Paddy Power | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.87 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 3.65 | 4.09 | 1.92 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 3.65 | 3.90 | 1.85 | 1.71 | 2.00 |
| Sky Bet | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.85 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 3.90 (best price) | 4.10 (best price) | 1.98 | — | — |
| Tipico | 3.80 | 3.80 | 1.90 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.45 | 3.75 | 1.91 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.90 (best price) | 4.10 (best price) | 1.92 | 1.74 | 2.04 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.90 (best price) | 4.10 (best price) | 1.92 | 1.77 | 2.07 (best price) |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.95 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 3.65 | 3.90 | 1.85 | — | — |
| William Hill | 3.50 | 3.80 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.45 | 3.90 | 1.92 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.40 | 3.85 | 1.90 | — | — |
Analysis
Group E top-spot decider — model rates it close and likes Ecuador's home price as the live underdog.
Group E, matchday 3 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford. Two of the group’s strongest sides meet to settle top spot, and the model sees it as tighter than the market does.
Ecuador (Elo 1702) are the home side and rated only 32 Elo points below Germany. Physical, well-organised, and dangerous in transition, the model gives them 31% — more than the 4.90 price implies.
Germany (Elo 1734) are favoured at 1.66 and the model agrees they’re the stronger side, but only modestly: 43% to win, with a real share going to the draw and the Ecuador upset.
Model view. Germany 31% / 26% / 43% (home/draw/away), xG 1.15–1.40, BTTS 51%, Under 2.5 53%. Germany-leaning but live for both other results.
Model vs market. The data flags Ecuador as the edge: 4.90 implies 20% but the model gives 31% — a 10.3% edge. The market is over-weighting Germany’s name against a strong home underdog.
- Ecuador ML at 4.90 — model 31%, fair ~3.23; the flagged value as the live home dog
- Draw at 3.75 — model 26%, fair ~3.85, roughly fair and live in a tight decider
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 51%, two functional attacks
Avoid: Germany -0.5 at a short price (only 43% to win), backing Germany heavily on reputation.
The model rates this a close game and flags Ecuador at 4.90 as the value home dog. If Germany are already qualified and rotate, the Ecuador and draw prices get even better — check the lineup.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Group E standings — this likely decides the group winner
- Whether Germany are already through and may rotate
- East Rutherford conditions and Ecuador's physical, pressing style
- Germany's central midfield legs in a third-window game