Model vs market
our call = 51% model + 49% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Sweden | Draw | Tunisia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 42.9% | 29.1% | 28.0% |
| Market (de-vig) | 50.0% | 28.0% | 22.0% |
| Our call | 46.4% | 28.5% | 25.1% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Sweden's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Sweden | Push | Tunisia |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.8% | — | 79.2% |
| -1 | 20.8% | 22.0% | 57.1% |
| -0.5 | 42.9% | — | 57.1% |
| 0 | 42.9% | 29.1% | 28.0% |
| +0.5 | 72.0% | — | 28.0% |
| +1 | 72.0% | 16.8% | 11.2% |
| +1.5 | 88.8% | — | 11.2% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.4% | 28.6% |
| 2.5 | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| 3.5 | 23.3% | 76.7% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Sweden or Draw | 72.0% |
| Draw or Tunisia | 57.1% |
| Sweden or Tunisia (no draw) | 70.9% |
| DNB — Sweden | 60.5% |
| DNB — Tunisia | 39.5% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.8% |
| 1–0 | 10.8% |
| 0–0 | 9.7% |
| 2–1 | 8.8% |
| 2–0 | 8.2% |
| 0–1 | 8.1% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 37 books · as ofAll 37 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Sweden | Draw | Tunisia | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.99 (best price) | 3.52 (best price) | 4.50 (best price) | 2.28 (best price) | 1.65 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.52 (best price) | 4.30 | 2.27 | 1.65 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.91 | 3.20 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.90 | 3.30 | 4.20 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.91 | 3.45 | 4.10 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.91 | 3.38 | 4.15 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.99 (best price) | 3.50 | 4.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.99 (best price) | 3.50 | 4.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.95 | 3.30 | 4.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.96 | 3.38 | 4.37 | — | — |
| Betsson | 1.98 | 3.35 | 4.25 | 2.28 (best price) | 1.65 (best price) |
| Betway | 1.88 | 3.40 | 3.80 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.91 | 3.30 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.93 | 3.35 | 4.30 | 2.16 | 1.62 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.94 | 3.40 | 4.20 | 2.19 | 1.58 |
| Coolbet | 1.98 | 3.40 | 4.30 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.95 | 3.30 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.91 | 3.40 | 4.20 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.91 | 3.25 | 4.20 | 2.20 | 1.64 |
| GTbets | 1.94 | 3.42 | 4.12 | 2.23 | 1.64 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.95 | 3.30 | 4.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.93 | 3.35 | 4.30 | 2.16 | 1.62 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.93 | 3.35 | 4.30 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.93 | 3.52 (best price) | 4.35 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.90 | 3.28 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.98 | 3.35 | 4.25 | 2.28 (best price) | 1.65 (best price) |
| Paddy Power | 1.91 | 3.30 | 4.20 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.93 | 3.48 | 4.32 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.93 | 3.35 | 4.30 | 2.08 | 1.56 |
| Sky Bet | 1.91 | 3.25 | 4.20 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.98 | 3.45 | 4.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.92 | 3.45 | 4.20 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.94 | 3.40 | 4.40 | 2.16 | 1.62 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.93 | 3.35 | 4.35 | 2.16 | 1.62 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.91 | 3.30 | 4.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.91 | 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.20 | 1.62 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.88 | 3.50 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.84 | 3.45 | 3.95 | — | — |
Analysis
Model has Tunisia favoured. The Elo is technically correct, but I'm not sure I trust it.
Group F’s other Day 4 opener, played in Monterrey. Late kickoff (8pm local). Neutral venue.
Sweden are in the worst stretch of their modern footballing era. Missed Euro 2024, lost friendlies to teams they used to beat, manager changes, identity crisis in midfield. Elo (1587) captures the decline accurately — this is the lowest-rated Sweden in two decades.
Tunisia are the consistency play of CAF. They qualified through a tight group, AFCON 2023 was respectable, and the Elo (1674) sits where it should. Tactically a 4-3-3 with deep block, transitions through pace on the flanks, and disciplined set-piece routines. Not exciting, often effective.
Model view. Tunisia 21% / 25% / 54%, xG 0.93–1.62, BTTS 48%. The model has Tunisia as the meaningful favourite.
Betting angle. I am genuinely conflicted on this match. The Elo is internally consistent — Sweden’s results over the past two years have been awful and Tunisia’s have been decent. But Sweden still has the kind of front-line talent that wins single matches against organised African mid-blocks. The model says 21%; my honest read says 30–35%.
If you bet this match at all:
- Draw at 3.20+ — model 25%, my adjusted 28%, often a value play in mid-block-vs-mid-block setups
- Under 2.5 at 1.95+ — model 53%, very high confidence on this regardless of who wins
- Sweden +0.5 AH at 2.50+ — only if odds reach the longer end; reflects my disagreement with the model
Avoid: Tunisia ML at any price under 2.20. The model says yes; the squad-quality eye test says coin flip. When they disagree, sit out.
This is a calibration match. If Tunisia wins comfortably, Sweden’s downstream Group F predictions need a manual rating tweak.
Verify before betting
- Sweden's striker situation — Isak/Gyökeres usage and partnership
- Tunisia's defensive shape — five-back or four-back default?
- Monterrey altitude (~540m) is moderate but real for fitness
- Sweden missed Euro 2024; how much of the decline is squad vs. coaching?
Team news
Sweden · TunisiaBets on this match
No bets placed.