Model vs market
our call = 59% model + 41% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Netherlands | Draw | Sweden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 56.4% | 25.6% | 18.0% |
| Market (de-vig) | 58.6% | 23.6% | 17.8% |
| Our call | 57.3% | 24.8% | 17.9% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Netherlands's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Netherlands | Push | Sweden |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 32.1% | — | 67.9% |
| -1 | 32.1% | 24.3% | 43.6% |
| -0.5 | 56.4% | — | 43.6% |
| 0 | 56.4% | 25.6% | 18.0% |
| +0.5 | 82.0% | — | 18.0% |
| +1 | 82.0% | 11.9% | 6.1% |
| +1.5 | 93.9% | — | 6.1% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74.3% | 25.8% |
| 2.5 | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 3.5 | 26.4% | 73.6% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Netherlands or Draw | 82.0% |
| Draw or Sweden | 43.6% |
| Netherlands or Sweden (no draw) | 74.4% |
| DNB — Netherlands | 75.8% |
| DNB — Sweden | 24.2% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.2% |
| 1–0 | 11.8% |
| 2–0 | 11.0% |
| 2–1 | 9.7% |
| 0–0 | 8.4% |
| 3–0 | 6.3% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 30 books · as ofAll 30 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Netherlands | Draw | Sweden | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.68 (best price) | 4.10 (best price) | 5.40 (best price) | 1.97 (best price) | 1.92 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 4.05 | 5.34 | 1.93 | 1.92 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.61 | 3.70 | 4.80 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.60 | 3.90 | 5.10 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.10 (best price) | 5.30 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 4.10 (best price) | 5.30 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.67 | 3.75 | 5.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.65 | 4.10 (best price) | 5.35 | 1.97 (best price) | 1.85 |
| BoyleSports | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.66 | 3.85 | 5.25 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
| Coral | 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.65 | 4.10 (best price) | 5.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.10 | 1.88 | 1.87 |
| GTbets | 1.64 | 3.91 | 4.89 | 1.89 | 1.88 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.66 | 3.85 | 5.25 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.66 | 3.85 | 5.25 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.60 | 3.94 | 5.20 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.62 | 3.85 | 5.00 | 1.86 | 1.84 |
| Paddy Power | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.61 | 3.98 | 4.96 | 1.92 | 1.87 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.66 | 3.85 | 5.25 | 1.79 | 1.77 |
| Sky Bet | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.64 | 4.10 (best price) | 5.40 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.20 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.68 (best price) | 3.90 | 5.40 (best price) | 1.85 | 1.83 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.40 (best price) | 1.85 | 1.83 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.70 | 4.80 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.56 | 3.80 | 4.60 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.54 | 3.70 | 4.50 | — | — |
Analysis
Netherlands are clear favourites and the model agrees — a small but real edge on the home win.
Group F, matchday 2 at NRG Stadium in Houston. The Netherlands are the group’s standout name and a win would put them firmly in control of the qualification picture.
Netherlands (Elo 1739) are the highest-rated side in the group and clear favourites at 1.65. The xG line of 1.89–0.66 reflects expected control, and the model gives them 67% to win.
Sweden (Elo 1587) are 152 Elo points back — organised and physical but light on a true game-breaker. The model gives them 12% and expects them pinned back for stretches.
Model view. Netherlands 67% / 21% / 12%, xG 1.89–0.66, BTTS 41%, Under 2.5 53%. Netherlands firmly favoured.
Betting angle. The data flags a modest edge on the Netherlands: 1.65 implies 61% but the model gives 67% — a 5.9% edge. Real but not large.
- Netherlands ML at 1.65 — model 67%, fair ~1.49; the flagged value
- Netherlands -0.5 AH = the straight win, 67%, same fair ~1.49
- Under 2.5 at 1.85 — model 53%, fair ~1.89, roughly fair and supported if Sweden sit deep
Avoid: Sweden ML (12%), Netherlands -1.5 chasing a margin (under coin-flip), BTTS yes short (model 41%).
The Netherlands are correctly favoured and the ML carries a small edge at 1.65. Confirm the Dutch attack is at full strength before backing the home win.
Verify before betting
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — a Dutch win likely puts qualification in sight
- Netherlands' attacking shape and whether it's clicking
- Sweden's defensive organisation as the underdog
- Houston roof/heat environment and any rotation
Team news
Netherlands · SwedenBets on this match
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