The model's pre-kickoff call was Netherlands win at 56.6%, and it gave the actual result (Netherlands win) 56.6%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 40 books · as ofAll 40 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Netherlands | Draw | Sweden | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.78 (best price) | 4.23 (best price) | 5.00 (best price) | 1.72 (best price) | 2.38 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.77 | 4.19 | 4.75 | 1.64 | 2.34 |
| 888sport | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.20 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.50 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.71 | 4.23 (best price) | 4.75 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.70 | 4.15 | 4.90 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.77 | 4.20 | 4.90 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.77 | 4.20 | 4.90 | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.62 | 3.25 | 4.33 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.70 | 4.00 | 5.00 (best price) | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.71 | 4.23 (best price) | 4.75 | — | — |
| Betsson | 1.78 (best price) | 3.90 | 4.65 | 1.65 | 2.28 |
| Betway | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.20 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.72 | 3.95 | 4.70 | 1.56 | 2.35 |
| Coolbet | 1.73 | 4.12 | 4.95 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.60 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.60 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.60 | 1.56 | 2.35 |
| GTbets | 1.72 | 3.91 | 4.66 | 1.65 | 2.28 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.60 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.72 | 3.95 | 4.70 | 1.56 | 2.35 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.72 | 3.95 | 4.70 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.78 (best price) | 4.10 | 4.90 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.68 | 4.10 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.75 | 3.95 | 4.70 | 1.72 (best price) | 2.15 |
| Paddy Power | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.75 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.72 | 4.00 | 4.80 | 1.54 | 2.28 |
| Sky Bet | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.77 | 4.20 | 4.90 | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.67 | 4.10 | 4.70 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.70 | 4.15 | 4.90 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.90 | 1.56 | 2.35 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.90 | 1.60 | 2.38 (best price) |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.70 | 3.85 | 4.50 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.80 | 4.40 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.60 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.50 | — | — |
Analysis
Netherlands are clear favourites and the model agrees — a small but real edge on the home win.
Group F, matchday 2 at NRG Stadium in Houston. The Netherlands are the group’s standout name and a win would put them firmly in control of the qualification picture.
Netherlands (Elo 1739) are the highest-rated side in the group and clear favourites at 1.65. The xG line of 1.89–0.66 reflects expected control, and the model gives them 67% to win.
Sweden (Elo 1587) are 152 Elo points back — organised and physical but light on a true game-breaker. The model gives them 12% and expects them pinned back for stretches.
Model view. Netherlands 67% / 21% / 12%, xG 1.89–0.66, BTTS 41%, Under 2.5 53%. Netherlands firmly favoured.
Model vs market. The data flags a modest edge on the Netherlands: 1.65 implies 61% but the model gives 67% — a 5.9% edge. Real but not large.
- Netherlands ML at 1.65 — model 67%, fair ~1.49; the flagged value
- Netherlands -0.5 AH = the straight win, 67%, same fair ~1.49
- Under 2.5 at 1.85 — model 53%, fair ~1.89, roughly fair and supported if Sweden sit deep
Avoid: Sweden ML (12%), Netherlands -1.5 chasing a margin (under coin-flip), BTTS yes short (model 41%).
The Netherlands are correctly favoured and the ML carries a small edge at 1.65. Confirm the Dutch attack is at full strength before backing the home win.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — a Dutch win likely puts qualification in sight
- Netherlands' attacking shape and whether it's clicking
- Sweden's defensive organisation as the underdog
- Houston roof/heat environment and any rotation