Model vs market
our call = 60% model + 40% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Tunisia | Draw | Japan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 20.2% | 26.6% | 53.2% |
| Market (de-vig) | 18.7% | 26.5% | 54.8% |
| Our call | 19.6% | 26.6% | 53.9% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Tunisia's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Tunisia | Push | Japan |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7.1% | — | 92.8% |
| -1 | 7.1% | 13.0% | 79.8% |
| -0.5 | 20.2% | — | 79.8% |
| 0 | 20.2% | 26.6% | 53.2% |
| +0.5 | 46.8% | — | 53.2% |
| +1 | 46.8% | 23.9% | 29.3% |
| +1.5 | 70.7% | — | 29.3% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.7% | 26.3% |
| 2.5 | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 3.5 | 25.8% | 74.2% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Tunisia or Draw | 46.8% |
| Draw or Japan | 79.8% |
| Tunisia or Japan (no draw) | 73.4% |
| DNB — Tunisia | 27.5% |
| DNB — Japan | 72.5% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.7% |
| 0–1 | 11.6% |
| 0–2 | 10.3% |
| 1–2 | 9.6% |
| 0–0 | 8.7% |
| 1–0 | 6.1% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 30 books · as ofAll 30 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Tunisia | Draw | Japan | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 5.10 (best price) | 3.70 (best price) | 1.88 (best price) | 2.23 (best price) | 1.68 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 4.99 | 3.50 | 1.80 | 2.23 (best price) | 1.68 (best price) |
| 888sport | 4.50 | 3.25 | 1.75 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 4.65 | 3.40 | 1.72 | — | — |
| Betfair | 5.10 (best price) | 3.45 | 1.74 | — | — |
| Betfair | 5.10 (best price) | 3.45 | 1.74 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 4.60 | 3.40 | 1.83 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 5.03 | 3.50 | 1.82 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 4.75 | 3.30 | 1.75 | — | — |
| Casumo | 4.90 | 3.60 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.63 |
| Coral | 4.60 | 3.50 | 1.80 | — | — |
| Everygame | 5.00 | 3.50 | 1.75 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 4.80 | 3.55 | 1.73 | 2.18 | 1.65 |
| GTbets | 4.74 | 3.38 | 1.88 (best price) | 2.22 | 1.65 |
| Ladbrokes | 4.60 | 3.40 | 1.80 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 4.90 | 3.60 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.63 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.90 | 3.60 | 1.75 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 4.85 | 3.40 | 1.75 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 4.70 | 3.40 | 1.75 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 4.50 | 3.40 | 1.75 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 4.81 | 3.43 | 1.75 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 4.90 | 3.60 | 1.75 | 2.06 | 1.56 |
| Sky Bet | 4.50 | 3.40 | 1.80 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 4.60 | 3.50 | 1.72 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 4.75 | 3.45 | 1.72 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 5.00 | 3.70 (best price) | 1.77 | 2.15 | 1.63 |
| Unibet (SE) | 5.00 | 3.65 | 1.76 | 2.15 | 1.63 |
| Unibet (UK) | 4.60 | 3.40 | 1.75 | — | — |
| William Hill | 4.50 | 3.25 | 1.75 | 2.20 | 1.62 |
| Winamax (DE) | 4.30 | 3.40 | 1.70 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 4.20 | 3.30 | 1.68 | — | — |
Analysis
Japan are the class side and the model backs them — a flagged edge on the away win.
Group F, matchday 2 at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey. Japan arrive as one of the strongest non-traditional powers in the field; Tunisia will look to frustrate and counter.
Tunisia (Elo 1674) are organised and physical but blunt going forward, and the model gives them just 14% to win. Their best route to points is a low-scoring, set-piece-decided game.
Japan (Elo 1814) are the highest-rated side in the group at 140 Elo points clear — technical, quick, and well-coached. The model’s xG line of 1.83 in their favour and a 64% win probability make them a clear choice.
Model view. Japan 14% / 22% / 64% (home/draw/away), xG 0.72–1.83, BTTS 43%, Under 2.5 53%. Firmly Japan.
Betting angle. The data flags a modest edge on Japan: 1.75 implies 57% but the model gives 64% — a 6.9% edge. Real and worth backing at the price.
- Japan ML at 1.75 — model 64%, fair ~1.56; the flagged value
- Japan -0.5 AH = the straight win, 64%, same fair ~1.56
- Under 2.5 at 1.63 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; supported if Tunisia sit deep
Avoid: Tunisia ML (14%), Japan -1.5 chasing a margin against a low block, over 2.5 at the implied price.
Japan are the model’s clear pick and 1.75 leaves a genuine edge. Confirm Japan’s attackers start before backing the away win — a rested XI against a Tunisian block tilts toward the under.
Verify before betting
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — Japan likely favoured to push for top spot
- Japan's technical, possession-based attack vs a Tunisian low block
- Tunisia's discipline and set-piece threat as the underdog
- Monterrey conditions and any rotation
Team news
Tunisia · JapanBets on this match
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