The model's pre-kickoff call was Japan win at 95.2%, and it gave the actual result (Japan win) 95.2%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 26 books · as ofAll 26 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Tunisia | Draw | Japan | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 501.00 (best price) | 71.00 (best price) | 1.02 (best price) | 1.90 (best price) | 2.08 (best price) |
| 888sport | 151.00 | 41.00 | 1.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 91.00 | 29.00 | 1.01 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 75.00 | 24.00 | 1.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 280.00 | 50.00 | 1.02 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 320.00 | 50.00 | 1.02 (best price) | — | — |
| Betsson | 101.00 | 29.00 | 1.00 | — | — |
| Betway | 151.00 | 34.00 | 1.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 201.00 | 51.00 | 1.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 501.00 (best price) | 41.00 | 1.01 | 1.81 | 1.94 |
| Coolbet | 150.00 | 52.00 | 1.01 | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| Coral | 101.00 | 34.00 | 1.01 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | — | — | — | 1.79 | 1.93 |
| Ladbrokes | 91.00 | 29.00 | 1.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | — | — | — | 1.76 | 1.89 |
| Matchbook | — | — | — | 1.90 (best price) | 2.08 (best price) |
| MyBookie.ag | — | — | — | 1.70 | 1.85 |
| Nordic Bet | 101.00 | 29.00 | 1.00 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 451.00 | 71.00 (best price) | 1.01 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | — | — | — | 1.75 | 1.88 |
| Sky Bet | 451.00 | 67.00 | 1.01 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 238.10 | 44.05 | 1.02 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | — | — | — | 1.81 | 1.94 |
| Unibet (SE) | 501.00 (best price) | 41.00 | 1.01 | 1.81 | 1.94 |
| Unibet (UK) | 251.00 | 29.00 | 1.01 | — | — |
| Winamax (DE) | 180.00 | 40.00 | 1.01 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 170.00 | 38.00 | 1.00 | — | — |
Analysis
Japan are the class side and the model backs them — a flagged edge on the away win.
Group F, matchday 2 at Estadio BBVA in Monterrey. Japan arrive as one of the strongest non-traditional powers in the field; Tunisia will look to frustrate and counter.
Tunisia (Elo 1674) are organised and physical but blunt going forward, and the model gives them just 14% to win. Their best route to points is a low-scoring, set-piece-decided game.
Japan (Elo 1814) are the highest-rated side in the group at 140 Elo points clear — technical, quick, and well-coached. The model’s xG line of 1.83 in their favour and a 64% win probability make them a clear choice.
Model view. Japan 14% / 22% / 64% (home/draw/away), xG 0.72–1.83, BTTS 43%, Under 2.5 53%. Firmly Japan.
Model vs market. The data flags a modest edge on Japan: 1.75 implies 57% but the model gives 64% — a 6.9% edge. Real and worth backing at the price.
- Japan ML at 1.75 — model 64%, fair ~1.56; the flagged value
- Japan -0.5 AH = the straight win, 64%, same fair ~1.56
- Under 2.5 at 1.63 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; supported if Tunisia sit deep
Avoid: Tunisia ML (14%), Japan -1.5 chasing a margin against a low block, over 2.5 at the implied price.
Japan are the model’s clear pick and 1.75 leaves a genuine edge. Confirm Japan’s attackers start before backing the away win — a rested XI against a Tunisian block tilts toward the under.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — Japan likely favoured to push for top spot
- Japan's technical, possession-based attack vs a Tunisian low block
- Tunisia's discipline and set-piece threat as the underdog
- Monterrey conditions and any rotation
Team news
Tunisia · JapanNo recent news mentioning Tunisia or Japan.