Model vs market
our call = 60% model + 40% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Japan | Draw | Sweden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 45.4% | 28.7% | 26.0% |
| Market (de-vig) | 46.4% | 27.4% | 26.2% |
| Our call | 45.8% | 28.2% | 26.1% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Japan's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Japan | Push | Sweden |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.7% | — | 77.3% |
| -1 | 22.7% | 22.6% | 54.6% |
| -0.5 | 45.4% | — | 54.6% |
| 0 | 45.4% | 28.7% | 26.0% |
| +0.5 | 74.0% | — | 26.0% |
| +1 | 74.0% | 15.9% | 10.1% |
| +1.5 | 89.9% | — | 10.1% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71.9% | 28.1% |
| 2.5 | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| 3.5 | 23.7% | 76.3% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Japan or Draw | 74.0% |
| Draw or Sweden | 54.6% |
| Japan or Sweden (no draw) | 71.3% |
| DNB — Japan | 63.6% |
| DNB — Sweden | 36.4% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.6% |
| 1–0 | 11.0% |
| 0–0 | 9.5% |
| 2–1 | 9.0% |
| 2–0 | 8.7% |
| 0–1 | 7.6% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 27 books · as ofAll 27 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Japan | Draw | Sweden | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 2.10 (best price) | 3.53 (best price) | 3.73 (best price) | 2.15 (best price) | 1.76 (best price) |
| 888sport | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.40 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.03 | 3.28 | 3.43 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.60 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.08 | 3.50 | 3.73 (best price) | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.12 | 1.65 |
| Coral | 2.10 (best price) | 3.40 | 3.50 | — | — |
| Everygame | 2.05 | 3.45 | 3.65 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.15 (best price) | 1.66 |
| GTbets | 2.10 (best price) | 3.53 (best price) | 3.59 | 2.04 | 1.76 (best price) |
| Ladbrokes | 2.10 (best price) | 3.40 | 3.50 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.12 | 1.65 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.50 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.50 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 2.05 | 3.38 | 3.46 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.06 | 3.28 | 3.44 | 2.01 | 1.71 |
| Paddy Power | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.50 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 2.04 | 3.38 | 3.56 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.50 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 2.02 | 3.15 | 3.25 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.12 | 1.65 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.50 | 2.12 | 1.65 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.45 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.50 | — | — |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.05 | 1.70 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.94 | 3.15 | 3.15 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.90 | 3.05 | 3.05 | — | — |
Analysis
Model rates Japan heavily here — a big flagged edge on the home win in the Group F finale.
Group F, matchday 3 at AT&T Stadium in Arlington. Japan are the group’s class side and the model expects them to handle Sweden comfortably; the only question is rotation.
Japan (Elo 1814) are the highest-rated team in the group and host here at 2.05. The xG line of 2.18–0.37 is dominant, and the model gives them 80% to win — far above the price’s implied ~49%.
Sweden (Elo 1587) are 227 Elo points back and the model gives them just 5% to win. Organised but outgunned, they’re expected to be controlled throughout.
Model view. Japan 80% / 15% / 5%, xG 2.18–0.37, BTTS 27%, Under 2.5 53%. Heavily Japan.
Betting angle. The data flags Japan as the edge: 2.05 implies 49% but the model gives 80% — a 30.8% edge, the largest in this fixture. The market is badly underrating the gap, likely pricing in rotation risk.
- Japan ML at 2.05 — model 80%, fair ~1.25; the headline value if Japan field a strong XI
- Japan -1 AH ~1.7 — the 2.18–0.37 xG margin supports a clear winning margin
- BTTS no ~1.5 — model 73% no, Sweden likely shut out
Avoid: Sweden ML (5%), over 2.5 chasing a rout (a controlled 2–0 keeps the total down), laying Japan on a handicap.
Japan at 2.05 against an 80% model probability is the standout edge in Group F — but the price screams rotation risk. This bet lives or dies on Japan fielding their first-choice attack; confirm the lineup before stacking it.
Verify before betting
- Group F standings — Japan may already be through and could rotate
- Sweden's qualification math and whether they must chase
- Japan's technical attack vs a Swedish side that may open up
- Dallas roof/heat environment and Japan's lineup intentions
Team news
Japan · SwedenBets on this match
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