Model vs market
our call = 17% model + 83% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Tunisia | Draw | Netherlands |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 14.6% | 23.7% | 61.6% |
| Market (de-vig) | 3.2% | 8.7% | 88.1% |
| Our call | 5.2% | 11.3% | 83.5% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Tunisia's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Tunisia | Push | Netherlands |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4.6% | — | 95.4% |
| -1 | 4.6% | 10.0% | 85.4% |
| -0.5 | 14.6% | — | 85.4% |
| 0 | 14.6% | 23.7% | 61.6% |
| +0.5 | 38.4% | — | 61.6% |
| +1 | 38.4% | 24.5% | 37.2% |
| +1.5 | 62.8% | — | 37.2% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.5% | 24.5% |
| 2.5 | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| 3.5 | 27.9% | 72.1% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Tunisia or Draw | 38.4% |
| Draw or Netherlands | 85.4% |
| Tunisia or Netherlands (no draw) | 76.3% |
| DNB — Tunisia | 19.2% |
| DNB — Netherlands | 80.8% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 0–2 | 12.1% |
| 0–1 | 12.0% |
| 1–1 | 11.3% |
| 1–2 | 9.7% |
| 0–0 | 7.8% |
| 0–3 | 7.5% |
Edges vs market
value spotted| Selection | Our call | Market | Odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.8% · raw 50.1% | 33.7% | 2.68 | +5.1% raw +16.5% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 39 books · as ofAll 39 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Tunisia | Draw | Netherlands | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 28.00 (best price) | 10.50 (best price) | 1.16 (best price) | 1.48 (best price) | 2.78 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 27.00 | 9.70 | 1.14 | — | — |
| 888sport | 21.00 | 8.00 | 1.11 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 22.00 | 9.00 | 1.10 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 21.00 | 8.75 | 1.12 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 24.00 | 9.25 | 1.11 | — | — |
| Betfair | 28.00 (best price) | 10.50 (best price) | 1.15 | — | — |
| Betfair | 28.00 (best price) | 10.50 (best price) | 1.15 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 19.00 | 8.00 | 1.14 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 22.00 | 9.50 | 1.13 | — | — |
| Betsson | 25.00 | 8.70 | 1.13 | 1.48 (best price) | 2.68 |
| Betway | 19.00 | 8.50 | 1.13 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 21.00 | 8.00 | 1.12 | — | — |
| Casumo | 23.00 | 9.50 | 1.11 | — | — |
| Coolbet | 23.00 | 9.00 | 1.14 | — | — |
| Coral | 19.00 | 9.00 | 1.13 | — | — |
| Everygame | 21.00 | 9.00 | 1.12 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 21.00 | 9.00 | 1.11 | — | — |
| GTbets | 22.41 | 8.18 | 1.16 (best price) | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 17.00 | 9.00 | 1.13 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 23.00 | 9.50 | 1.11 | — | — |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 23.00 | 9.50 | 1.11 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 21.00 | 9.00 | 1.10 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 28.00 (best price) | 10.00 | 1.15 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 21.00 | 8.40 | 1.12 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 27.00 | 9.10 | 1.12 | 1.45 | 2.78 (best price) |
| Paddy Power | 21.00 | 9.50 | 1.10 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 20.20 | 8.66 | 1.12 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 21.00 | 9.00 | 1.10 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 19.00 | 9.00 | 1.10 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 27.03 | 10.00 | 1.15 | — | — |
| Tipico | 23.00 | 9.00 | 1.11 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 24.00 | 9.50 | 1.11 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 25.00 | 10.50 (best price) | 1.13 | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 25.00 | 10.50 (best price) | 1.13 | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 23.00 | 8.00 | 1.12 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 21.00 | 9.00 | 1.10 | — | — |
| William Hill | 23.00 | 8.50 | 1.12 | 1.44 | 2.60 |
| Winamax (DE) | 17.00 | 9.00 | 1.11 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 17.00 | 9.00 | 1.11 | — | — |
Analysis
Netherlands are favoured in the Group F finale, but the model likes Tunisia's home price as the live dog.
Group F, matchday 3 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The Netherlands should be favourites, but the model gives Tunisia more of a chance at home than the long price suggests.
Tunisia (Elo 1674) are organised and physical, and as the home side with possible qualification stakes they have motivation on their side. The model gives them 25% to win — well above the 6.00 price.
Netherlands (Elo 1739) are the higher-rated side and favourites at 1.50, but the model only gives them 49% to win, with significant draw and Tunisia equity. Rotation risk if they’re already through inflates the dog’s chances.
Model view. Netherlands 25% / 26% / 49% (home/draw/away), xG 1.01–1.54, BTTS 50%, Under 2.5 53%. Dutch-leaning but far from a lock.
Model vs market. The data flags Tunisia as the edge: 6.00 implies 17% but the model gives 25% — an 8.3% edge as the live home underdog.
- Tunisia ML at 6.00 — model 25%, fair ~4.00; the flagged value, especially if the Dutch rotate
- Draw at 4.00 — model 26%, fair ~3.85, roughly fair and live in a tight game
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 50%, two willing attacks
Avoid: Netherlands -0.5 at the short price (only 49% to win), backing the Dutch heavily on reputation.
The Netherlands are favoured but far from safe — the model flags Tunisia at 6.00 as the value home dog. If the Dutch are qualified and rotate, the Tunisia and draw prices become genuinely attractive; check the lineup first.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Group F standings — the Netherlands may already be through and rotating
- Tunisia's qualification scenario — a must-win could force them open
- Kansas City conditions and Dutch lineup intentions
- Tunisia's set-piece threat against a possibly rotated Dutch XI