Model vs market
our call = 42% model + 58% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Belgium | Draw | Egypt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 47.4% | 28.2% | 24.3% |
| Market (de-vig) | 58.4% | 23.9% | 17.7% |
| Our call | 53.7% | 25.8% | 20.5% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Belgium's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Belgium | Push | Egypt |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24.3% | — | 75.6% |
| -1 | 24.3% | 23.1% | 52.6% |
| -0.5 | 47.4% | — | 52.6% |
| 0 | 47.4% | 28.2% | 24.3% |
| +0.5 | 75.6% | — | 24.3% |
| +1 | 75.6% | 15.2% | 9.2% |
| +1.5 | 90.8% | — | 9.2% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.2% | 27.9% |
| 2.5 | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| 3.5 | 24.0% | 76.0% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Belgium or Draw | 75.6% |
| Draw or Egypt | 52.6% |
| Belgium or Egypt (no draw) | 71.8% |
| DNB — Belgium | 66.1% |
| DNB — Egypt | 33.9% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.4% |
| 1–0 | 11.3% |
| 0–0 | 9.4% |
| 2–1 | 9.2% |
| 2–0 | 9.2% |
| 0–1 | 7.2% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 37 books · as ofAll 37 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Belgium | Draw | Egypt | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.72 (best price) | 4.10 (best price) | 5.80 (best price) | 2.04 (best price) | 1.90 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.72 (best price) | 3.88 | 5.30 | 2.00 | 1.83 |
| 888sport | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.80 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.25 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.66 | 3.85 | 5.25 | 2.00 | 1.83 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.10 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 4.00 | 5.80 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 4.00 | 5.80 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.67 | 3.75 | 5.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.65 | 4.10 (best price) | 5.45 | 1.92 | 1.90 (best price) |
| Betsson | 1.68 | 3.90 | 5.35 | 1.98 | 1.85 |
| Betway | 1.61 | 3.80 | 4.75 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.75 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.66 | 3.90 | 5.20 | 1.89 | 1.80 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.20 | 1.89 | 1.78 |
| Coolbet | 1.72 (best price) | 3.85 | 5.25 | 1.94 | 1.87 |
| Coral | 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.65 | 3.85 | 5.25 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.65 | 3.80 | 5.10 | 1.93 | 1.83 |
| GTbets | 1.69 | 3.88 | 4.98 | 1.94 | 1.83 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.66 | 3.90 | 5.20 | 1.89 | 1.80 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.66 | 3.90 | 5.20 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.70 | 3.88 | 5.40 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.63 | 3.80 | 4.90 | 1.91 | 1.80 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.68 | 3.90 | 5.35 | 1.98 | 1.85 |
| Paddy Power | 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 3.93 | 5.38 | 2.04 (best price) | 1.85 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.66 | 3.90 | 5.20 | 1.83 | 1.73 |
| Sky Bet | 1.62 | 3.75 | 5.25 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.70 | 4.00 | 5.70 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.65 | 4.00 | 5.20 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.68 | 4.00 | 5.30 | 1.89 | 1.80 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.67 | 3.95 | 5.30 | 1.89 | 1.80 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.65 | 3.80 | 5.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.80 | 1.91 | 1.80 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.62 | 3.95 | 5.10 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.60 | 3.85 | 5.00 | — | — |
Analysis
The model says pick'em. The market will say Belgium 1.65. The market is wrong.
Group G opener at Lumen Field. Neutral venue, both teams travelling.
Belgium are post-golden-generation. The De Bruyne/Hazard/Lukaku cohort has aged out or retired and the rebuild has been wobbly — Euro 2024 group exit, manager changes, identity drift. Elo (1723) reflects a side that’s no longer the FIFA top-5 ranking they used to occupy. Decent depth but not a coherent identity.
Egypt are the AFCON contender, consistently the highest-ranked African nation outside Morocco. The Elo (1715) — almost identical to Belgium’s — is a real signal, not a glitch. The squad is built around Salah but is more tactically sophisticated than the “give it to Salah” caricature suggests. Compact mid-block, transitions through wide pace, dangerous on set pieces.
Model view. Belgium 38% / 27% / 35%, xG 1.31–1.24, BTTS 52%. As close to a true pick’em as the model has produced.
Betting angle. This is the match where the market will overrate Belgium because of name recognition and underrate Egypt because the public can’t name three Egypt players besides Salah. Where to look:
- Egypt ML at 3.20+ — model 35%, fair ~2.86, market will likely sit at 4.50+ which is real edge
- Draw at 3.40+ — model 27%, fair ~3.70, but draw markets are usually well-priced
- Egypt +0.5 AH at 1.85+ — combined Egypt-win + draw = 62%, fair ~1.61
- BTTS-Yes at 2.00+ — model 52%, fair ~1.92
Avoid: Belgium ML at the short side. Below 2.00 there is no edge.
This match is the sharpest +EV spot of Day 5. Egypt at long odds is the bet of the matchday if the lines drop where I expect.
Verify before betting
- Belgium's current cycle XI — golden generation retirements (Hazard, Witsel)
- Mo Salah's role — winger or shifted central?
- Seattle weather: typically temperate in June but check forecast
- Egypt set-piece routines — they punch above weight on dead balls
Team news
Belgium · EgyptNo recent news mentioning Belgium or Egypt.
Bets on this match
No bets placed.