Model vs market
our call = 58% model + 42% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Iran | Draw | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 53.5% | 26.5% | 20.0% |
| Market (de-vig) | 50.7% | 27.7% | 21.6% |
| Our call | 52.3% | 27.0% | 20.7% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Iran's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Iran | Push | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29.6% | — | 70.4% |
| -1 | 29.6% | 23.9% | 46.5% |
| -0.5 | 53.5% | — | 46.5% |
| 0 | 53.5% | 26.5% | 20.0% |
| +0.5 | 80.0% | — | 20.0% |
| +1 | 80.0% | 13.0% | 7.1% |
| +1.5 | 92.9% | — | 7.1% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 2.5 | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| 3.5 | 26.0% | 74.0% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Iran or Draw | 80.0% |
| Draw or New Zealand | 46.5% |
| Iran or New Zealand (no draw) | 73.5% |
| DNB — Iran | 72.7% |
| DNB — New Zealand | 27.3% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.6% |
| 1–0 | 11.5% |
| 2–0 | 10.4% |
| 2–1 | 9.6% |
| 0–0 | 8.6% |
| 0–1 | 6.0% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 36 books · as ofAll 36 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Iran | Draw | New Zealand | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 2.00 (best price) | 3.55 (best price) | 4.50 (best price) | 2.28 (best price) | 1.67 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.93 | 3.50 | 4.44 | 2.27 | 1.65 |
| 888sport | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.00 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.88 | 3.40 | 4.35 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.85 | 3.35 | 4.15 | — | — |
| Betfair | 2.00 (best price) | 3.55 (best price) | 4.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 2.00 (best price) | 3.55 (best price) | 4.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.83 | 3.40 | 4.33 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.93 | 3.50 | 4.31 | — | — |
| Betsson | 1.95 | 3.35 | 4.40 | 2.28 (best price) | 1.65 |
| Betway | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.91 | 3.25 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.92 | 3.40 | 4.30 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.92 | 3.40 | 4.20 | 2.17 | 1.59 |
| Coolbet | 1.92 | 3.50 | 4.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Coral | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.33 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.90 | 3.45 | 4.33 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.89 | 3.35 | 4.20 | 2.20 | 1.64 |
| GTbets | 1.86 | 3.55 (best price) | 4.32 | 2.22 | 1.62 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.33 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.92 | 3.40 | 4.30 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.92 | 3.40 | 4.30 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.91 | 3.50 | 4.50 (best price) | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.88 | 3.30 | 4.10 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.95 | 3.35 | 4.40 | 2.28 (best price) | 1.65 |
| Paddy Power | 1.91 | 3.30 | 4.20 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.91 | 3.49 | 4.42 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.92 | 3.40 | 4.30 | 2.08 | 1.55 |
| Sky Bet | 1.91 | 3.30 | 4.20 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.99 | 3.55 (best price) | 4.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.88 | 3.45 | 4.25 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.93 | 3.45 | 4.40 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.92 | 3.45 | 4.40 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.78 | 3.50 | 4.40 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.00 | 2.15 | 1.67 (best price) |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.88 | 3.45 | 4.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.86 | 3.40 | 3.95 | — | — |
Analysis
Group G's softer half. Iran are the largest off-screen favourite of the matchday.
Group G’s late kickoff at SoFi Stadium. Neutral venue, but neither side gets much travelling support.
Iran are an underrated tournament side at this level. They have qualified for five consecutive World Cups, the squad has Europe-based starters at most positions (Taremi, Azmoun, Hajsafi, Jahanbakhsh), and the tactical default is a 4-3-3 with vertical transitions. Elo (1779) is high but earned — they have beaten respectable opposition consistently in AFC and intercontinental friendlies. The federation politics are a separate question from the football quality.
New Zealand are a textbook tournament novelty side. The OFC route means very few competitive matches against tier-1 opposition; the friendlies record (1593 Elo) is honest about where they are. Some good A-League and Europe-based individuals, but no cohesive identity from competitive matches.
Model view. Iran 73% / 19% / 9%, xG 2.02–0.53, BTTS 36%. Strong Iran lean. The 73% probably understates them slightly given New Zealand’s lack of recent top-level reps.
Betting angle. The market will price Iran around 1.50–1.60 ML, which is roughly fair on the model. Where to find edge:
- Iran -1.5 AH at 2.00+ — model implies ~53%, fair ~1.89
- Under 3.5 at 1.55+ — Iran will dominate but typically not blow teams out
- Iran win to nil at 2.40+ — model 64%, fair ~1.56, books often miss on this market
Avoid: New Zealand draw no bet (asymmetric downside), BTTS-Yes (long odds, model says 36%).
Verify before betting
- Iran's manager continuity — recent federation chaos
- Taremi role and condition
- New Zealand's roster — A-League vs European-based players, integration
- LA evening kickoff; SoFi will be empty-ish for this slot
Team news
Iran · New ZealandBets on this match
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