The model's pre-kickoff call was Iran win at 54.6%, and it gave the actual result (Draw) 26.4%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 41 books · as ofAll 41 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Iran | Draw | New Zealand | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.86 (best price) | 3.70 (best price) | 5.40 (best price) | 2.45 (best price) | 1.61 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.83 | 3.60 | 5.25 | 2.43 | 1.60 |
| 888sport | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.75 | 3.40 | 5.00 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.80 | 3.58 | 5.12 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.80 | 3.65 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.84 | 3.65 | 5.30 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.84 | 3.65 | 5.30 | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.67 | 3.00 | 4.50 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.80 | 3.40 | 5.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.80 | 3.58 | 5.12 | — | — |
| Betsson | 1.80 | 3.50 | 5.15 | 2.45 (best price) | 1.58 |
| Betway | 1.75 | 3.50 | 4.75 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.75 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.10 | 2.32 | 1.57 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.78 | 3.50 | 5.00 | 2.29 | 1.53 |
| Coolbet | 1.85 | 3.52 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.80 | 3.30 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.75 | 3.45 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.74 | 3.45 | 5.00 | 2.32 | 1.57 |
| GTbets | 1.86 (best price) | 3.36 | 4.81 | 2.37 | 1.57 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.80 | 3.30 | 5.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.10 | 2.32 | 1.57 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.76 | 3.50 | 5.10 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.90 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.84 | 3.65 | 5.40 (best price) | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.74 | 3.50 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.80 | 3.50 | 5.15 | 2.45 (best price) | 1.58 |
| Paddy Power | 1.75 | 3.40 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.82 | 3.59 | 5.09 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.78 | 3.40 | 4.90 | 2.25 | 1.55 |
| Sky Bet | 1.75 | 3.50 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.82 | 3.65 | 5.30 | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.75 | 3.50 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.80 | 3.65 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.79 | 3.60 | 5.30 | 2.32 | 1.57 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.79 | 3.60 | 5.30 | 2.35 | 1.61 (best price) |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.84 | 3.50 | 5.00 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.90 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.60 | 2.30 | 1.55 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.78 | 3.70 (best price) | 4.90 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.78 | 3.65 | 4.80 | — | — |
Analysis
Group G's softer half. Iran are the largest off-screen favourite of the matchday.
Group G’s late kickoff at SoFi Stadium. Neutral venue, but neither side gets much travelling support.
Iran are an underrated tournament side at this level. They have qualified for five consecutive World Cups, the squad has Europe-based starters at most positions (Taremi, Azmoun, Hajsafi, Jahanbakhsh), and the tactical default is a 4-3-3 with vertical transitions. Elo (1779) is high but earned — they have beaten respectable opposition consistently in AFC and intercontinental friendlies. The federation politics are a separate question from the football quality.
New Zealand are a textbook tournament novelty side. The OFC route means very few competitive matches against tier-1 opposition; the friendlies record (1593 Elo) is honest about where they are. Some good A-League and Europe-based individuals, but no cohesive identity from competitive matches.
Model view. Iran 73% / 19% / 9%, xG 2.02–0.53, BTTS 36%. Strong Iran lean. The 73% probably understates them slightly given New Zealand’s lack of recent top-level reps.
Model vs market. The market will price Iran around 1.50–1.60 ML, which is roughly fair on the model. Where to find edge:
- Iran -1.5 AH at 2.00+ — model implies ~53%, fair ~1.89
- Under 3.5 at 1.55+ — Iran will dominate but typically not blow teams out
- Iran win to nil at 2.40+ — model 64%, fair ~1.56, books often miss on this market
Avoid: New Zealand draw no bet (asymmetric downside), BTTS-Yes (long odds, model says 36%).
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Iran's manager continuity — recent federation chaos
- Taremi role and condition
- New Zealand's roster — A-League vs European-based players, integration
- LA evening kickoff; SoFi will be empty-ish for this slot
Team news
Iran · New ZealandNo recent news mentioning Iran or New Zealand.