The model's pre-kickoff call was Belgium win at 64.6%, and it gave the actual result (Draw) 21.7%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 31 books · as ofAll 31 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Belgium | Draw | Iran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.60 (best price) | 3.75 (best price) | 12.00 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.44 | 3.30 | 8.00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.50 | 3.20 | 10.50 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.55 | 3.05 | 9.25 |
| Betfair | 1.54 | 3.70 | 11.50 |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 3.75 (best price) | 12.00 (best price) |
| Betsson | 1.49 | 3.25 | 11.00 |
| Betway | 1.50 | 3.30 | 8.50 |
| BoyleSports | 1.50 | 3.10 | 11.00 |
| Casumo | 1.54 | 3.20 | 9.50 |
| Coolbet | 1.60 (best price) | 3.30 | 11.00 |
| Coral | 1.53 | 3.30 | 8.50 |
| Grosvenor | 1.49 | 3.15 | 9.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.55 | 3.20 | 8.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.47 | 3.10 | 8.50 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.47 | 3.00 | 8.50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.48 | 3.10 | 9.00 |
| Matchbook | 1.57 | 3.65 | 11.50 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.50 | 3.15 | 7.50 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.52 | 3.15 | 11.00 |
| Paddy Power | 1.53 | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.52 | 3.37 | 10.60 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.53 | 3.25 | 9.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.50 | 3.10 | 11.00 |
| Smarkets | 1.53 | 3.65 | 11.00 |
| Tipico | 1.45 | 3.30 | 11.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.53 | 3.25 | 9.50 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.56 | 3.10 | 9.00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.55 | 3.20 | 11.00 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.50 | 3.05 | 9.00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.56 | 3.05 | 9.00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.50 | 3.00 | 8.50 |
Analysis
Belgium carry the name and the short price, but the model rates Iran higher — huge value on the away side.
Group G, matchday 2 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. Belgium are the bookmaker favourite on reputation, but the model has Iran as the stronger side — a classic name-versus-rating spot.
Belgium (Elo 1723) are priced at 1.40 but rated 56 Elo points below Iran by the model. The golden generation has aged, and the model is unconvinced the brand justifies the favourite tag here.
Iran (Elo 1779) are the higher-rated side — disciplined, defensively organised, and dangerous on the counter. The model gives them 48% to win versus Belgium’s 27%, with the 7.80 away price looking dramatically too long.
Model view. Iran 27% / 26% / 48% (home/draw/away), xG 1.05–1.50, BTTS 51%, Under 2.5 53%. The model makes Iran the clear favourite.
Model vs market. The data flags Iran as the edge: 7.80 implies 13% but the model gives 48% — a 34.7% edge, one of the largest in the whole batch. The market is anchoring hard on Belgium’s name.
- Iran ML at 7.80 — model 48%, fair ~2.08; the headline value of the matchday
- Iran +0.5 / draw-no-bet — combined Iran win + draw = 74%, deep value vs the implied price
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 51%, two willing attacks
Avoid: Belgium ML at 1.40 (model only 27% — a severe over-price), Belgium -0.5 on reputation.
This is one of the model’s loudest name-fades: the market has Belgium at 71% implied, the model makes Iran the 48% favourite, and Iran at 7.80 is enormous value. An edge this large demands a squad-quality sanity check — but the rating says the favourite tag is on the wrong team.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — this likely shapes the group's top two
- Belgium's ageing golden generation and whether it still functions
- Iran's disciplined, defensive-counter structure
- Inglewood environment and any Belgian rotation