Model vs market
our call = 31% model + 69% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Belgium | Draw | Iran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 53.0% | 26.7% | 20.3% |
| Market (de-vig) | 69.6% | 19.5% | 10.9% |
| Our call | 64.5% | 21.7% | 13.8% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Belgium's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Belgium | Push | Iran |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29.1% | — | 70.9% |
| -1 | 29.1% | 23.9% | 47.0% |
| -0.5 | 53.0% | — | 47.0% |
| 0 | 53.0% | 26.7% | 20.3% |
| +0.5 | 79.7% | — | 20.3% |
| +1 | 79.7% | 13.1% | 7.2% |
| +1.5 | 92.8% | — | 7.2% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.5% | 26.5% |
| 2.5 | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| 3.5 | 25.5% | 74.5% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Belgium or Draw | 79.7% |
| Draw or Iran | 47.0% |
| Belgium or Iran (no draw) | 73.3% |
| DNB — Belgium | 72.3% |
| DNB — Iran | 27.7% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 12.7% |
| 1–0 | 11.6% |
| 2–0 | 10.3% |
| 2–1 | 9.6% |
| 0–0 | 8.8% |
| 0–1 | 6.1% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 29 books · as ofAll 29 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Belgium | Draw | Iran | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.44 (best price) | 5.00 (best price) | 9.00 (best price) | 1.89 (best price) | 1.96 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.42 | 4.69 | 8.00 | 1.89 (best price) | 1.96 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.40 | 4.20 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.37 | 4.45 | 7.25 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.41 | 4.90 | 9.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.41 | 4.90 | 9.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.40 | 4.50 | 8.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.40 | 4.77 | 9.00 (best price) | 1.87 | 1.95 |
| BoyleSports | 1.40 | 4.33 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.40 | 4.80 | 8.00 | 1.83 | 1.87 |
| Coral | 1.44 (best price) | 4.50 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.40 | 4.75 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.38 | 4.70 | 7.50 | 1.85 | 1.89 |
| GTbets | 1.42 | 4.60 | 7.49 | 1.85 | 1.92 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.44 (best price) | 4.50 | 7.50 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.40 | 4.80 | 8.00 | 1.83 | 1.87 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.40 | 4.80 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.38 | 4.55 | 7.80 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.39 | 4.50 | 7.40 | 1.83 | 1.88 |
| Paddy Power | 1.36 | 4.50 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.37 | 4.59 | 7.65 | 1.84 | 1.95 |
| Sky Bet | 1.40 | 4.50 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.43 | 5.00 (best price) | 9.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.37 | 4.55 | 7.60 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.41 | 4.90 | 8.50 | 1.83 | 1.87 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.40 | 4.90 | 8.00 | 1.83 | 1.87 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.40 | 4.40 | 7.50 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.20 | 7.00 | 1.80 | 1.91 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.36 | 4.40 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.34 | 4.30 | 6.25 | — | — |
Analysis
Belgium carry the name and the short price, but the model rates Iran higher — huge value on the away side.
Group G, matchday 2 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. Belgium are the bookmaker favourite on reputation, but the model has Iran as the stronger side — a classic name-versus-rating spot.
Belgium (Elo 1723) are priced at 1.40 but rated 56 Elo points below Iran by the model. The golden generation has aged, and the model is unconvinced the brand justifies the favourite tag here.
Iran (Elo 1779) are the higher-rated side — disciplined, defensively organised, and dangerous on the counter. The model gives them 48% to win versus Belgium’s 27%, with the 7.80 away price looking dramatically too long.
Model view. Iran 27% / 26% / 48% (home/draw/away), xG 1.05–1.50, BTTS 51%, Under 2.5 53%. The model makes Iran the clear favourite.
Betting angle. The data flags Iran as the edge: 7.80 implies 13% but the model gives 48% — a 34.7% edge, one of the largest in the whole batch. The market is anchoring hard on Belgium’s name.
- Iran ML at 7.80 — model 48%, fair ~2.08; the headline value of the matchday
- Iran +0.5 / draw-no-bet — combined Iran win + draw = 74%, deep value vs the implied price
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 51%, two willing attacks
Avoid: Belgium ML at 1.40 (model only 27% — a severe over-price), Belgium -0.5 on reputation.
This is one of the model’s loudest name-fades: the market has Belgium at 71% implied, the model makes Iran the 48% favourite, and Iran at 7.80 is enormous value. An edge this large demands a squad-quality sanity check — but the rating says the favourite tag is on the wrong team.
Verify before betting
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — this likely shapes the group's top two
- Belgium's ageing golden generation and whether it still functions
- Iran's disciplined, defensive-counter structure
- Inglewood environment and any Belgian rotation
Team news
Belgium · IranBets on this match
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