The model's pre-kickoff call was Egypt win at 64.1%, and it gave the actual result (Egypt win) 64.1%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 40 books · as ofAll 40 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | New Zealand | Draw | Egypt | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 6.60 (best price) | 4.30 (best price) | 1.64 (best price) | 2.10 (best price) | 1.89 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 6.21 | 4.14 | 1.63 | 2.06 | 1.81 |
| 888sport | 5.50 | 3.80 | 1.57 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 6.00 | 3.90 | 1.55 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 5.75 | 4.05 | 1.57 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 6.10 | 4.20 | 1.57 | — | — |
| Betfair | 6.40 | 4.30 (best price) | 1.61 | — | — |
| Betfair | 6.40 | 4.30 (best price) | 1.61 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 6.00 | 3.75 | 1.60 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 6.40 | 4.25 | 1.56 | 2.09 | 1.80 |
| Betsson | 6.10 | 3.90 | 1.62 | 2.02 | 1.82 |
| Betway | 5.75 | 4.00 | 1.55 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 5.50 | 3.80 | 1.57 | — | — |
| Casumo | 6.10 | 4.00 | 1.56 | 2.02 | 1.75 |
| Codere (IT) | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.58 | 1.97 | 1.72 |
| Coolbet | 6.30 | 4.20 | 1.60 | 2.08 | 1.81 |
| Coral | 5.75 | 3.90 | 1.60 | — | — |
| Everygame | 6.00 | 4.10 | 1.57 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 6.00 | 3.95 | 1.55 | 2.02 | 1.75 |
| GTbets | 5.69 | 3.89 | 1.64 (best price) | 2.06 | 1.76 |
| Ladbrokes | 5.75 | 3.90 | 1.60 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 6.10 | 4.00 | 1.56 | 2.02 | 1.75 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 6.10 | 4.00 | 1.56 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 6.00 | 3.90 | 1.54 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 6.40 | 4.20 | 1.62 | 2.10 (best price) | 1.89 (best price) |
| MyBookie.ag | 5.80 | 3.90 | 1.59 | 2.05 | 1.78 |
| Nordic Bet | 6.10 | 3.90 | 1.62 | 2.02 | 1.82 |
| Paddy Power | 5.50 | 4.00 | 1.53 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 6.10 | 4.20 | 1.61 | 2.08 | 1.84 |
| PMU (FR) | 6.25 | 4.10 | 1.57 | 1.97 | 1.71 |
| Sky Bet | 5.50 | 4.20 | 1.53 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 6.60 (best price) | 4.30 (best price) | 1.61 | — | — |
| Tipico | 5.80 | 4.20 | 1.55 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 6.25 | 4.25 | 1.57 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 6.40 | 4.10 | 1.57 | 2.02 | 1.75 |
| Unibet (SE) | 6.40 | 4.10 | 1.57 | 2.06 | 1.78 |
| Unibet (UK) | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.58 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 6.00 | 3.90 | 1.54 | — | — |
| William Hill | 5.50 | 3.80 | 1.57 | 2.00 | 1.73 |
| Winamax (DE) | 5.80 | 4.20 | 1.58 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 5.70 | 4.10 | 1.56 | — | — |
Analysis
Egypt are the stronger side and the model agrees — but the line is fair, so look to the derivatives.
Group G, matchday 2 at BC Place in Vancouver. Egypt are the higher-rated side and favoured to take a step toward the knockouts; New Zealand will look to make it physical and awkward.
New Zealand (Elo 1593) are organised and combative but limited in attack, and the model gives them just 16% to win. Their best path is a low-scoring, set-piece-decided game.
Egypt (Elo 1715) are 122 Elo points higher — a Salah-led side with genuine cutting edge. The model’s xG line of 1.76 in their favour and a 60% win probability reflect a clear class gap.
Model view. Egypt 16% / 23% / 60% (home/draw/away), xG 0.79–1.76, BTTS 45%, Under 2.5 53%. Firmly Egypt.
Model vs market. No edge flagged — the market (Egypt ~1.70) sits right on the model. This is an efficient line, so the value is in the derivatives rather than the headline.
- Under 2.5 at 1.63 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; supported if New Zealand sit deep
- Egypt -0.5 AH = the straight win, 60%, fair ~1.67, roughly the offered price
- BTTS no ~1.8 — model 55% no, New Zealand may be shut out
Avoid: New Zealand ML (16%), Egypt -1.5 chasing a margin (under coin-flip), over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
Egypt are correctly favoured and the line is fair — there’s no ML edge, so lean the under and the derivatives. Confirm Salah starts central before leaning on the Egypt-control script.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — Egypt likely favoured for a knockout push
- Egypt's Salah-led attack and whether he's central
- New Zealand's physical, set-piece-reliant approach
- Vancouver conditions and any rotation
Team news
New Zealand · EgyptNo recent news mentioning New Zealand or Egypt.