Model vs market
our call = 59% model + 41% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | New Zealand | Draw | Egypt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 16.4% | 24.7% | 58.9% |
| Market (de-vig) | 17.8% | 25.5% | 56.8% |
| Our call | 17.0% | 25.0% | 58.0% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from New Zealand's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | New Zealand | Push | Egypt |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5.4% | — | 94.6% |
| -1 | 5.4% | 11.0% | 83.6% |
| -0.5 | 16.4% | — | 83.6% |
| 0 | 16.4% | 24.7% | 58.9% |
| +0.5 | 41.1% | — | 58.9% |
| +1 | 41.1% | 24.3% | 34.5% |
| +1.5 | 65.5% | — | 34.5% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.0% | 25.0% |
| 2.5 | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| 3.5 | 27.4% | 72.7% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| New Zealand or Draw | 41.1% |
| Draw or Egypt | 83.6% |
| New Zealand or Egypt (no draw) | 75.3% |
| DNB — New Zealand | 21.8% |
| DNB — Egypt | 78.2% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 0–1 | 11.8% |
| 1–1 | 11.8% |
| 0–2 | 11.5% |
| 1–2 | 9.7% |
| 0–0 | 8.1% |
| 0–3 | 6.9% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 30 books · as ofAll 30 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | New Zealand | Draw | Egypt | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 5.35 (best price) | 4.00 (best price) | 1.74 (best price) | 2.32 (best price) | 1.69 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 5.14 | 3.83 | 1.71 | 2.22 | 1.69 (best price) |
| 888sport | 4.75 | 3.50 | 1.67 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 4.90 | 3.78 | 1.61 | — | — |
| Betfair | 5.20 | 3.70 | 1.70 | — | — |
| Betfair | 5.20 | 3.70 | 1.70 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 5.00 | 3.60 | 1.70 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 4.80 | 3.95 | 1.74 (best price) | 2.32 (best price) | 1.66 |
| BoyleSports | 4.75 | 3.50 | 1.70 | — | — |
| Casumo | 5.20 | 3.60 | 1.72 | 2.14 | 1.63 |
| Coral | 5.25 | 3.60 | 1.70 | — | — |
| Everygame | 4.60 | 4.00 (best price) | 1.73 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 5.10 | 3.50 | 1.71 | 2.17 | 1.66 |
| GTbets | 5.35 (best price) | 3.70 | 1.72 | 2.21 | 1.65 |
| Ladbrokes | 5.25 | 3.60 | 1.70 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 5.20 | 3.60 | 1.72 | 2.14 | 1.63 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 5.20 | 3.60 | 1.72 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 5.00 | 3.72 | 1.66 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 5.10 | 3.65 | 1.65 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 5.00 | 3.50 | 1.73 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 4.46 | 3.87 | 1.70 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 5.20 | 3.60 | 1.72 | 2.05 | 1.56 |
| Sky Bet | 5.00 | 3.50 | 1.70 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.68 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 5.20 | 3.70 | 1.62 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 5.30 | 3.65 | 1.74 (best price) | 2.14 | 1.63 |
| Unibet (SE) | 5.30 | 3.65 | 1.73 | 2.14 | 1.63 |
| Unibet (UK) | 5.00 | 3.60 | 1.65 | — | — |
| William Hill | 4.75 | 3.50 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.62 |
| Winamax (DE) | 4.70 | 3.60 | 1.60 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 4.60 | 3.50 | 1.58 | — | — |
Analysis
Egypt are the stronger side and the model agrees — but the line is fair, so look to the derivatives.
Group G, matchday 2 at BC Place in Vancouver. Egypt are the higher-rated side and favoured to take a step toward the knockouts; New Zealand will look to make it physical and awkward.
New Zealand (Elo 1593) are organised and combative but limited in attack, and the model gives them just 16% to win. Their best path is a low-scoring, set-piece-decided game.
Egypt (Elo 1715) are 122 Elo points higher — a Salah-led side with genuine cutting edge. The model’s xG line of 1.76 in their favour and a 60% win probability reflect a clear class gap.
Model view. Egypt 16% / 23% / 60% (home/draw/away), xG 0.79–1.76, BTTS 45%, Under 2.5 53%. Firmly Egypt.
Betting angle. No edge flagged — the market (Egypt ~1.70) sits right on the model. This is an efficient line, so the value is in the derivatives rather than the headline.
- Under 2.5 at 1.63 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; supported if New Zealand sit deep
- Egypt -0.5 AH = the straight win, 60%, fair ~1.67, roughly the offered price
- BTTS no ~1.8 — model 55% no, New Zealand may be shut out
Avoid: New Zealand ML (16%), Egypt -1.5 chasing a margin (under coin-flip), over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
Egypt are correctly favoured and the line is fair — there’s no ML edge, so lean the under and the derivatives. Confirm Salah starts central before leaning on the Egypt-control script.
Verify before betting
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — Egypt likely favoured for a knockout push
- Egypt's Salah-led attack and whether he's central
- New Zealand's physical, set-piece-reliant approach
- Vancouver conditions and any rotation
Team news
New Zealand · EgyptNo recent news mentioning New Zealand or Egypt.
Bets on this match
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