Model vs market
our call = 59% model + 41% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Egypt | Draw | Iran |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 40.5% | 29.6% | 29.9% |
| Market (de-vig) | 41.8% | 30.6% | 27.6% |
| Our call | 41.0% | 30.0% | 29.0% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Egypt's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Egypt | Push | Iran |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.0% | — | 81.0% |
| -1 | 19.0% | 21.5% | 59.5% |
| -0.5 | 40.5% | — | 59.5% |
| 0 | 40.5% | 29.6% | 29.9% |
| +0.5 | 70.1% | — | 29.9% |
| +1 | 70.1% | 17.7% | 12.2% |
| +1.5 | 87.8% | — | 12.2% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70.7% | 29.3% |
| 2.5 | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| 3.5 | 22.5% | 77.5% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Egypt or Draw | 70.1% |
| Draw or Iran | 59.5% |
| Egypt or Iran (no draw) | 70.4% |
| DNB — Egypt | 57.5% |
| DNB — Iran | 42.5% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 14.0% |
| 1–0 | 10.6% |
| 0–0 | 10.0% |
| 0–1 | 8.7% |
| 2–1 | 8.5% |
| 2–0 | 7.8% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 27 books · as ofAll 27 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Egypt | Draw | Iran | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 2.40 (best price) | 3.20 (best price) | 3.62 (best price) | 2.50 (best price) | 1.50 (best price) |
| 888sport | 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.30 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.17 | 2.93 | 3.48 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.40 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.32 | 3.20 (best price) | 3.44 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 2.20 | 3.00 | 3.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 2.40 (best price) | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.43 | 1.49 |
| Coral | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.50 | — | — |
| Everygame | 2.25 | 3.05 | 3.60 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 2.40 (best price) | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.50 (best price) | 1.50 (best price) |
| GTbets | 2.38 | 3.08 | 3.62 (best price) | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.40 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 2.40 (best price) | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.43 | 1.49 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.40 (best price) | 3.00 | 3.10 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.40 (best price) | 3.00 | 3.10 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 2.29 | 2.93 | 3.40 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.21 | 2.93 | 3.50 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.30 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 2.98 | 3.52 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.25 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 2.10 | 2.88 | 3.45 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.40 (best price) | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.43 | 1.49 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.40 (best price) | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.43 | 1.49 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.20 | 2.95 | 3.50 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 2.40 (best price) | 3.00 | 3.10 | — | — |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.50 (best price) | 1.44 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.05 | 2.85 | 3.20 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.00 | 2.70 | 3.05 | — | — |
Analysis
Group G finale with knockout stakes — model rates Iran the away favourite and flags a clear price edge.
Group G, matchday 3 at Lumen Field in Seattle. Two of the group’s strongest sides meet in a fixture that could decide who advances — and the model leans to the visitors.
Egypt (Elo 1715) are the home side and a Salah-led threat, but the model rates them 64 Elo points below Iran. The model gives them just 25% to win despite the home tag.
Iran (Elo 1779) are the higher-rated side — disciplined and defensively sound — and the model makes them the favourite at 49%. The 3.30 away price leaves a clear edge.
Model view. Iran 25% / 26% / 49% (home/draw/away), xG 1.02–1.53, BTTS 50%, Under 2.5 53%. Iran-leaning.
Betting angle. The data flags two edges. Iran at 3.30 implies 30% but the model gives 49% — an 18.9% edge, the standout. There’s also a smaller over-2.5 edge worth noting.
- Iran ML at 3.30 — model 49%, fair ~2.04; the headline value
- Over 2.5 at 2.43 — model 47%, implied 41%, a 5.7% edge; two attacking sides who may need goals
- Iran +0.5 / draw-no-bet — combined Iran win + draw = 75%, strong vs the implied price
Avoid: Egypt -0.5 on the home tag (only 25% to win), backing Egypt heavily on Salah’s name.
The model makes Iran the away favourite and flags them at 3.30 as clear value. Note the unusual over-2.5 edge here too — if both sides need a win, this could open up. Confirm motivation and lineups first.
Verify before betting
- Group G standings — this could decide a knockout place for both
- Egypt's Salah-led attack vs Iran's organised block
- Whether either side is already through and may rotate
- Seattle conditions for the goal-total read
Team news
Egypt · IranBets on this match
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