Model vs market
our call = 59% model + 41% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | New Zealand | Draw | Belgium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 5.3% | 15.2% | 79.5% |
| Market (de-vig) | 5.8% | 12.8% | 81.4% |
| Our call | 5.5% | 14.2% | 80.3% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from New Zealand's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | New Zealand | Push | Belgium |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1.2% | — | 98.8% |
| -1 | 1.2% | 4.1% | 94.7% |
| -0.5 | 5.3% | — | 94.7% |
| 0 | 5.3% | 15.2% | 79.5% |
| +0.5 | 20.4% | — | 79.5% |
| +1 | 20.4% | 22.0% | 57.5% |
| +1.5 | 42.5% | — | 57.5% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.7% | 20.3% |
| 2.5 | 56.3% | 43.8% |
| 3.5 | 33.9% | 66.1% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| New Zealand or Draw | 20.4% |
| Draw or Belgium | 94.7% |
| New Zealand or Belgium (no draw) | 84.8% |
| DNB — New Zealand | 6.2% |
| DNB — Belgium | 93.8% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 0–2 | 15.7% |
| 0–3 | 12.8% |
| 0–1 | 12.3% |
| 1–2 | 7.9% |
| 0–4 | 7.8% |
| 1–1 | 7.0% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 36 books · as ofAll 36 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | New Zealand | Draw | Belgium | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 16.50 (best price) | 7.40 (best price) | 1.24 (best price) | 1.65 (best price) | 2.43 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 16.00 | 7.07 | 1.23 | 1.62 | 2.38 |
| 888sport | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 14.00 | 6.90 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Betfair | 16.50 (best price) | 7.20 | 1.23 | — | — |
| Betfair | 16.50 (best price) | 7.20 | 1.23 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 13.00 | 6.50 | 1.22 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 13.00 | 6.60 | 1.18 | — | — |
| Betway | 11.00 | 6.50 | 1.18 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.22 | — | — |
| Casumo | 15.00 | 7.00 | 1.21 | 1.56 | 2.35 |
| Codere (IT) | 14.00 | 6.80 | 1.20 | 1.56 | 2.23 |
| Coolbet | 15.00 | 6.80 | 1.23 | — | — |
| Coral | 12.00 | 6.50 | 1.22 | — | — |
| Everygame | 13.00 | 6.75 | 1.22 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 14.00 | 6.50 | 1.20 | 1.56 | 2.35 |
| GTbets | 13.16 | 6.65 | 1.23 | 1.65 (best price) | 2.29 |
| Ladbrokes | 12.00 | 6.50 | 1.22 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 15.00 | 7.00 | 1.21 | 1.56 | 2.35 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 15.00 | 7.00 | 1.21 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 14.00 | 6.50 | 1.19 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 16.50 (best price) | 7.40 (best price) | 1.24 (best price) | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 13.25 | 6.60 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 14.00 | 6.50 | 1.18 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 13.44 | 6.77 | 1.21 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 14.00 | 6.50 | 1.19 | 1.53 | 2.30 |
| Sky Bet | 12.00 | 7.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 16.50 (best price) | 7.20 | 1.23 | — | — |
| Tipico | 15.00 | 7.00 | 1.18 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 14.00 | 7.10 | 1.19 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 15.00 | 7.00 | 1.21 | 1.56 | 2.35 |
| Unibet (SE) | 15.00 | 7.00 | 1.21 | 1.57 | 2.43 (best price) |
| Unibet (UK) | 14.00 | 6.50 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 14.00 | 6.50 | 1.19 | — | — |
| William Hill | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.20 | 1.55 | 2.30 |
| Winamax (DE) | 11.50 | 7.00 | 1.19 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 11.50 | 6.75 | 1.18 | — | — |
Analysis
Belgium should win the Group G finale comfortably — the value is on the under.
Group G, matchday 3 at BC Place in Vancouver. Belgium are heavy favourites against the group’s weakest side; the question is the margin and the total.
New Zealand (Elo 1593) are organised and combative but limited going forward, and the model gives them just 15% to win. A deep block and set-piece hopes are their best route to anything.
Belgium (Elo 1723) are 130 Elo points higher and favoured at 1.27. The xG line of 1.79 in their favour and a 62% win probability reflect control — though the model’s number sits below the price’s implied ~79%.
Model view. Belgium 15% / 23% / 62% (home/draw/away), xG 0.76–1.79, BTTS 44%, Under 2.5 53%. Firmly Belgium.
Model vs market. The flagged edge is the under: 2.12 implies 47% but the model gives 53% — a 5.9% edge. A controlled win over a low block keeps the goal total down.
- Under 2.5 at 2.12 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; the flagged value
- Belgium -0.5 AH = the straight win, 62%, fair ~1.61
- BTTS no ~1.8 — model 56% no, New Zealand may be shut out
Avoid: New Zealand ML (15%), Belgium ML at 1.27 (no flagged edge — fairly priced), over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
Belgium win this comfortably but the edge is the under at 2.12, not the cramped ML. If Belgium rotate ageing legs, the under only gets stronger — check the lineup.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Group G standings — Belgium's qualification scenario and rotation risk
- New Zealand's physical, set-piece-reliant approach
- Belgium's ageing core and whether key men are rested
- Vancouver conditions for the goal-total read