Model vs market
our call = 52% model + 48% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | New Zealand | Draw | Belgium |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 9.9% | 20.2% | 69.9% |
| Market (de-vig) | 8.6% | 14.9% | 76.5% |
| Our call | 9.3% | 17.6% | 73.1% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from New Zealand's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | New Zealand | Push | Belgium |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.7% | — | 97.3% |
| -1 | 2.7% | 7.2% | 90.1% |
| -0.5 | 9.9% | — | 90.1% |
| 0 | 9.9% | 20.2% | 69.9% |
| +0.5 | 30.1% | — | 69.9% |
| +1 | 30.1% | 24.0% | 45.9% |
| +1.5 | 54.1% | — | 45.9% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.4% | 22.6% |
| 2.5 | 52.6% | 47.3% |
| 3.5 | 30.4% | 69.6% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| New Zealand or Draw | 30.1% |
| Draw or Belgium | 90.1% |
| New Zealand or Belgium (no draw) | 79.8% |
| DNB — New Zealand | 12.4% |
| DNB — Belgium | 87.6% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 0–2 | 13.8% |
| 0–1 | 12.3% |
| 0–3 | 9.7% |
| 1–1 | 9.6% |
| 1–2 | 9.3% |
| 0–0 | 7.0% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 27 books · as ofAll 27 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | New Zealand | Draw | Belgium | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 11.00 (best price) | 6.00 (best price) | 1.30 (best price) | 1.67 (best price) | 2.17 (best price) |
| 888sport | 9.50 | 5.00 | 1.29 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 8.75 | 5.25 | 1.28 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 11.00 (best price) | 5.00 | 1.29 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 8.60 | 5.20 | 1.30 (best price) | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 10.00 | 5.00 | 1.29 | — | — |
| Casumo | 9.00 | 6.00 (best price) | 1.26 | 1.64 | 2.12 |
| Coral | 9.00 | 5.50 | 1.30 (best price) | — | — |
| Everygame | 9.50 | 6.00 (best price) | 1.28 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 9.00 | 6.00 (best price) | 1.26 | 1.65 | 2.17 (best price) |
| GTbets | 10.02 | 5.58 | 1.30 (best price) | 1.65 | 2.15 |
| Ladbrokes | 9.00 | 5.50 | 1.30 (best price) | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 9.00 | 6.00 (best price) | 1.26 | 1.64 | 2.12 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 9.00 | 6.00 (best price) | 1.26 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 9.00 | 6.00 (best price) | 1.26 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 10.50 | 5.50 | 1.26 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 8.70 | 5.20 | 1.29 | 1.66 | 2.09 |
| Paddy Power | 11.00 (best price) | 5.50 | 1.25 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 9.19 | 5.59 | 1.27 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 10.00 | 5.50 | 1.25 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 8.40 | 5.50 | 1.28 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 9.00 | 6.00 (best price) | 1.26 | 1.64 | 2.12 |
| Unibet (SE) | 9.00 | 6.00 (best price) | 1.26 | 1.64 | 2.12 |
| Unibet (UK) | 9.00 | 5.00 | 1.30 (best price) | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 9.00 | 6.00 (best price) | 1.26 | — | — |
| William Hill | 9.50 | 5.00 | 1.29 | 1.67 (best price) | 2.10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 7.25 | 4.90 | 1.25 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 6.75 | 4.50 | 1.22 | — | — |
Analysis
Belgium should win the Group G finale comfortably — the value is on the under.
Group G, matchday 3 at BC Place in Vancouver. Belgium are heavy favourites against the group’s weakest side; the question is the margin and the total.
New Zealand (Elo 1593) are organised and combative but limited going forward, and the model gives them just 15% to win. A deep block and set-piece hopes are their best route to anything.
Belgium (Elo 1723) are 130 Elo points higher and favoured at 1.27. The xG line of 1.79 in their favour and a 62% win probability reflect control — though the model’s number sits below the price’s implied ~79%.
Model view. Belgium 15% / 23% / 62% (home/draw/away), xG 0.76–1.79, BTTS 44%, Under 2.5 53%. Firmly Belgium.
Betting angle. The flagged edge is the under: 2.12 implies 47% but the model gives 53% — a 5.9% edge. A controlled win over a low block keeps the goal total down.
- Under 2.5 at 2.12 — model 53%, fair ~1.89; the flagged value
- Belgium -0.5 AH = the straight win, 62%, fair ~1.61
- BTTS no ~1.8 — model 56% no, New Zealand may be shut out
Avoid: New Zealand ML (15%), Belgium ML at 1.27 (no flagged edge — fairly priced), over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
Belgium win this comfortably but the edge is the under at 2.12, not the cramped ML. If Belgium rotate ageing legs, the under only gets stronger — check the lineup.
Verify before betting
- Group G standings — Belgium's qualification scenario and rotation risk
- New Zealand's physical, set-piece-reliant approach
- Belgium's ageing core and whether key men are rested
- Vancouver conditions for the goal-total read
Team news
New Zealand · BelgiumNo recent news mentioning New Zealand or Belgium.
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