The model's pre-kickoff call was Spain win at 91.3%, and it gave the actual result (Draw) 7.1%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 41 books · as ofAll 41 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Spain | Draw | Cape Verde | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.09 (best price) | 17.50 (best price) | 44.00 (best price) | 1.31 (best price) | 3.50 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.09 (best price) | 13.50 | 37.00 | — | — |
| 888sport | 1.06 | 12.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.05 | 12.00 | 31.00 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.07 | 15.05 | 38.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.07 | 13.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.08 | 17.50 (best price) | 44.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.08 | 17.50 (best price) | 44.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.06 | 10.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.08 | 10.00 | 29.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.07 | 15.05 | 38.00 | — | — |
| Betsson | 1.09 (best price) | 11.00 | 41.00 | 1.31 (best price) | 3.50 (best price) |
| Betway | 1.07 | 13.00 | 29.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.07 | 12.00 | 34.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.06 | 14.00 | 35.00 | — | — |
| Codere (IT) | 1.07 | 13.00 | 28.00 | — | — |
| Coolbet | 1.08 | 14.30 | 38.00 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.09 (best price) | 11.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.07 | 12.00 | 29.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.05 | 13.00 | 34.00 | — | — |
| GTbets | 1.09 (best price) | 11.96 | 29.87 | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 1.09 (best price) | 11.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.06 | 14.00 | 35.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.06 | 14.00 | 35.00 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.04 | 13.00 | 34.00 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.08 | 17.00 | 42.00 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.07 | 12.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.09 (best price) | 11.00 | 41.00 | 1.31 (best price) | 3.50 (best price) |
| Paddy Power | 1.06 | 14.00 | 34.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.08 | 14.50 | 34.00 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.04 | 13.00 | 34.00 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 1.05 | 15.00 | 31.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.08 | 17.01 | 40.00 | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.06 | 13.00 | 27.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.07 | 13.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.07 | 16.00 | 35.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.07 | 16.00 | 35.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.07 | 12.00 | 36.00 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.04 | 13.00 | 34.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.07 | 12.00 | 26.00 | 1.29 | 3.40 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.08 | 15.00 | 30.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.07 | 13.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
Analysis
Spain are the model's biggest single-match favourite of matchdays 1–7. Don't chase the ML — find the right total.
Group H opener at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Spain return as the Euro 2024 champions; Cape Verde make their World Cup debut.
Spain are the model’s pick to win the tournament outright (preview Elo: 1867, top-3 in the entire field). Possession-dominant, positional play, the central-spine quality (Rodri, Pedri, the new generation of attacking midfielders) is unmatched at this World Cup. Euro 2024 was not a fluke; the cycle has gone in only one direction.
Cape Verde are the underdog story of CAF qualifying. First World Cup, small player pool, very limited tier-1 reps. The squad has a couple of Europe-based starters and they have organised a sensible 4-5-1 / 5-4-1 block. Elo (1624) probably overstates them slightly — the qualification path included some wins against now-weakened sides.
Model view. Spain 82% / 14% / 4%, xG 2.25–0.30, BTTS 23%. As one-sided as the model gets without a venue boost.
Model vs market. Spain ML will be priced at 1.10–1.15, no edge. The market is correctly efficient on the headline; where there’s value:
- Spain -2.5 AH at 1.95+ — model implies ~52%, fair ~1.92 (Spain blow out weaker sides regularly)
- Over 3.5 at 2.00+ — model implies ~38%, fair ~2.63, but Spain at peak hit this number often
- BTTS-No at 1.40+ — model 77%, fair ~1.30
Calibration warning. If Spain win 1-0 or scrape through, every downstream Spain-favoured market in this tournament needs a small downward adjustment. The model thinks Spain are the best team in the field; Day 5 is when we find out if that’s still true.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Spain XI rotation — is the manager treating this as a 90-minute training match?
- Cape Verde's GK situation — usually competent, occasionally overwhelmed
- Atlanta humidity at noon kickoff
- Spain set-piece routines — corners are where this might break open