Model vs market
our call = 59% model + 41% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Spain | Draw | Cape Verde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 90.0% | 8.6% | 1.4% |
| Market (de-vig) | 91.5% | 6.3% | 2.3% |
| Our call | 90.6% | 7.6% | 1.8% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Spain's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Spain | Push | Cape Verde |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 72.6% | — | 27.4% |
| -1 | 72.6% | 17.4% | 10.0% |
| -0.5 | 90.0% | — | 10.0% |
| 0 | 90.0% | 8.6% | 1.4% |
| +0.5 | 98.6% | — | 1.4% |
| +1 | 98.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| +1.5 | 99.8% | — | 0.2% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82.2% | 17.8% |
| 2.5 | 60.4% | 39.6% |
| 3.5 | 38.1% | 61.9% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Spain or Draw | 98.6% |
| Draw or Cape Verde | 10.0% |
| Spain or Cape Verde (no draw) | 91.4% |
| DNB — Spain | 98.5% |
| DNB — Cape Verde | 1.6% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 18.2% |
| 3–0 | 17.5% |
| 4–0 | 12.6% |
| 1–0 | 12.4% |
| 5–0 | 7.3% |
| 0–0 | 4.7% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 36 books · as ofAll 36 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Spain | Draw | Cape Verde | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.11 (best price) | 13.00 (best price) | 38.00 (best price) | 1.36 (best price) | 3.20 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.11 (best price) | 10.50 | 27.00 | — | — |
| 888sport | 1.10 | 9.50 | 23.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.07 | 10.50 | 26.00 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.07 | 11.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.09 | 10.00 | 24.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.11 (best price) | 13.00 (best price) | 32.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.11 (best price) | 13.00 (best price) | 32.00 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.10 | 9.50 | 21.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.09 | 11.25 | 34.00 | — | — |
| Betsson | 1.11 (best price) | 8.90 | 38.00 (best price) | 1.36 (best price) | 3.20 (best price) |
| Betway | 1.08 | 11.00 | 21.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.10 | 9.50 | 29.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.07 | 12.00 | 30.00 | — | — |
| Codere (IT) | 1.10 | 10.00 | 25.00 | — | — |
| Coolbet | 1.11 (best price) | 11.00 | 25.00 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.11 (best price) | 10.00 | 23.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.08 | 12.00 | 29.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.07 | 11.50 | 29.00 | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 1.10 | 10.00 | 23.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.07 | 12.00 | 30.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.07 | 12.00 | 30.00 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.11 (best price) | 10.50 | 27.00 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.08 | 8.90 | 22.00 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.11 (best price) | 8.90 | 38.00 (best price) | 1.36 (best price) | 3.20 (best price) |
| Paddy Power | 1.08 | 11.00 | 23.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.08 | 11.75 | 28.67 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.07 | 12.00 | 30.00 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 1.08 | 11.00 | 19.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.11 (best price) | 12.50 | 28.99 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.09 | 11.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.08 | 13.00 (best price) | 30.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.07 | 13.00 (best price) | 30.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.08 | 9.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.10 | 9.50 | 23.00 | 1.33 | 3.10 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.06 | 13.00 (best price) | 22.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.05 | 11.50 | 20.00 | — | — |
Analysis
Spain are the model's biggest single-match favourite of matchdays 1–7. Don't chase the ML — find the right total.
Group H opener at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Spain return as the Euro 2024 champions; Cape Verde make their World Cup debut.
Spain are the model’s pick to win the tournament outright (preview Elo: 1867, top-3 in the entire field). Possession-dominant, positional play, the central-spine quality (Rodri, Pedri, the new generation of attacking midfielders) is unmatched at this World Cup. Euro 2024 was not a fluke; the cycle has gone in only one direction.
Cape Verde are the underdog story of CAF qualifying. First World Cup, small player pool, very limited tier-1 reps. The squad has a couple of Europe-based starters and they have organised a sensible 4-5-1 / 5-4-1 block. Elo (1624) probably overstates them slightly — the qualification path included some wins against now-weakened sides.
Model view. Spain 82% / 14% / 4%, xG 2.25–0.30, BTTS 23%. As one-sided as the model gets without a venue boost.
Betting angle. Spain ML will be priced at 1.10–1.15, no edge. The market is correctly efficient on the headline; where there’s value:
- Spain -2.5 AH at 1.95+ — model implies ~52%, fair ~1.92 (Spain blow out weaker sides regularly)
- Over 3.5 at 2.00+ — model implies ~38%, fair ~2.63, but Spain at peak hit this number often
- BTTS-No at 1.40+ — model 77%, fair ~1.30
Calibration warning. If Spain win 1-0 or scrape through, every downstream Spain-favoured market in this tournament needs a small downward adjustment. The model thinks Spain are the best team in the field; Day 5 is when we find out if that’s still true.
Verify before betting
- Spain XI rotation — is the manager treating this as a 90-minute training match?
- Cape Verde's GK situation — usually competent, occasionally overwhelmed
- Atlanta humidity at noon kickoff
- Spain set-piece routines — corners are where this might break open
Team news
Spain · Cape VerdeBets on this match
No bets placed.