The model's pre-kickoff call was Uruguay win at 71.6%, and it gave the actual result (Draw) 19.4%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 41 books · as ofAll 41 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Saudi Arabia | Draw | Uruguay | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 9.00 (best price) | 4.50 (best price) | 1.51 (best price) | 2.22 (best price) | 1.76 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 8.45 | 4.38 | 1.50 | 2.15 | 1.75 |
| 888sport | 7.00 | 4.00 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 8.00 | 4.20 | 1.44 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 8.15 | 4.25 | 1.45 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 8.00 | 4.30 | 1.47 | — | — |
| Betfair | 8.60 | 4.40 | 1.51 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 8.60 | 4.40 | 1.51 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 7.00 | 3.50 | 1.40 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 8.00 | 4.20 | 1.44 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 8.00 | 4.30 | 1.49 | 2.17 | 1.75 |
| Betsson | 8.70 | 4.05 | 1.48 | 2.15 | 1.70 |
| Betway | 7.50 | 4.20 | 1.44 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 8.00 | 4.20 | 1.40 | — | — |
| Casumo | 8.50 | 4.30 | 1.43 | 2.05 | 1.73 |
| Codere (IT) | 7.60 | 4.30 | 1.46 | 2.02 | 1.68 |
| Coolbet | 8.30 | 4.25 | 1.50 | 2.16 | 1.75 |
| Coral | 7.50 | 4.20 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Everygame | 8.00 | 4.10 | 1.45 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 8.00 | 4.20 | 1.42 | 2.05 | 1.73 |
| GTbets | 8.16 | 4.34 | 1.44 | 2.06 | 1.74 |
| Ladbrokes | 7.50 | 4.20 | 1.44 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 8.50 | 4.30 | 1.43 | 2.05 | 1.73 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 8.50 | 4.30 | 1.43 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 8.00 | 4.20 | 1.41 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 8.60 | 4.30 | 1.51 (best price) | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 7.34 | 4.10 | 1.47 | 2.11 | 1.74 |
| Nordic Bet | 8.70 | 4.05 | 1.48 | 2.22 (best price) | 1.68 |
| Paddy Power | 7.50 | 4.00 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 8.25 | 4.30 | 1.50 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 8.00 | 4.20 | 1.41 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
| Sky Bet | 7.50 | 4.20 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 8.60 | 4.40 | 1.51 (best price) | — | — |
| Tipico | 7.50 | 4.30 | 1.45 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 8.00 | 4.30 | 1.47 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 9.00 (best price) | 4.50 (best price) | 1.45 | 2.05 | 1.73 |
| Unibet (SE) | 9.00 (best price) | 4.50 (best price) | 1.45 | 2.08 | 1.76 (best price) |
| Unibet (UK) | 7.50 | 4.25 | 1.45 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 8.00 | 4.20 | 1.41 | — | — |
| William Hill | 7.50 | 4.00 | 1.44 | 2.00 | 1.73 |
| Winamax (DE) | 7.75 | 4.30 | 1.48 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 7.50 | 4.20 | 1.47 | — | — |
Analysis
Uruguay are the meaningful favourite. The market will price this close to fair.
Group H’s other Day 5 opener at Hard Rock Stadium. Late afternoon kickoff in Miami, neutral venue.
Saudi Arabia are the most-invested-in Asian football program of the past five years. The squad benefits from the Saudi Pro League salary boom (familiarity with high-level training environments) but also from the Saudi Pro League’s lower competitive ceiling than top European leagues. Elo (1579) reflects an inconsistent run since their 2022 World Cup high (the famous Argentina win). Capable of an upset; not a tier-1 side.
Uruguay are the South American tournament veteran. Through generational handover from the Suárez/Cavani era to the Núñez/Pellistri/Araujo generation, with central spine in De La Cruz and Valverde. Elo (1684) is fair. Tactically intense, vertical, transitions through pace; classic Uruguay grit on set pieces.
Model view. Uruguay 19% / 24% / 57%, xG 0.86–1.69, BTTS 47%. Clean Uruguay lean.
Model vs market. The market will price this in the 1.65–1.75 range on Uruguay ML, which is roughly fair on the model. Where to find edge:
- Uruguay -0.5 AH at 1.65+ — this is just ML in disguise but sometimes priced better
- Uruguay -1.5 AH at 2.30+ — model implies ~35%, fair ~2.86, books often miss on the spread
- Saudi Arabia +1.5 AH at 1.95+ — model implies ~76%, fair ~1.32 — sometimes available at value if books haven’t tuned the line
Avoid: BTTS markets (basically a coin flip, no edge), draw at short prices.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Uruguay's manager — Bielsa continuity?
- Saudi Pro League player share of the Saudi XI — fitness/match-load post-domestic season
- Miami heat at 6pm kickoff
- Set-piece personnel for Uruguay — historically a strong dead-ball side