Model vs market
our call = 46% model + 54% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Saudi Arabia | Draw | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 7.1% | 17.4% | 75.5% |
| Market (de-vig) | 12.8% | 21.2% | 66.0% |
| Our call | 10.2% | 19.5% | 70.4% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Saudi Arabia's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Saudi Arabia | Push | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1.8% | — | 98.3% |
| -1 | 1.8% | 5.4% | 92.9% |
| -0.5 | 7.1% | — | 92.9% |
| 0 | 7.1% | 17.4% | 75.5% |
| +0.5 | 24.5% | — | 75.5% |
| +1 | 24.5% | 23.1% | 52.4% |
| +1.5 | 47.6% | — | 52.4% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.7% | 21.3% |
| 2.5 | 54.8% | 45.3% |
| 3.5 | 32.4% | 67.6% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia or Draw | 24.5% |
| Draw or Uruguay | 92.9% |
| Saudi Arabia or Uruguay (no draw) | 82.6% |
| DNB — Saudi Arabia | 8.6% |
| DNB — Uruguay | 91.4% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 0–2 | 14.8% |
| 0–1 | 12.3% |
| 0–3 | 11.3% |
| 1–2 | 8.6% |
| 1–1 | 8.2% |
| 1–3 | 6.6% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 37 books · as ofAll 37 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Saudi Arabia | Draw | Uruguay | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 8.00 (best price) | 4.60 (best price) | 1.51 (best price) | 1.98 (best price) | 1.94 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 7.50 | 4.45 | 1.49 | 1.93 | 1.89 |
| 888sport | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 7.50 | 4.20 | 1.44 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 7.00 | 4.35 | 1.47 | 1.95 | 1.87 |
| Betclic (FR) | 6.75 | 4.30 | 1.43 | — | — |
| Betfair | 8.00 (best price) | 4.60 (best price) | 1.51 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 8.00 (best price) | 4.60 (best price) | 1.51 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 7.00 | 4.20 | 1.44 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 7.33 | 4.50 | 1.48 | 1.93 | 1.89 |
| Betsson | 7.70 | 4.30 | 1.49 | 1.95 | 1.88 |
| Betway | 6.50 | 4.33 | 1.44 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Casumo | 7.00 | 4.30 | 1.48 | 1.79 | 1.92 |
| Codere (IT) | 7.00 | 4.40 | 1.47 | 1.84 | 1.82 |
| Coolbet | 7.75 | 4.40 | 1.48 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Coral | 7.00 | 4.33 | 1.48 | — | — |
| Everygame | 7.00 | 4.40 | 1.45 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 6.75 | 4.20 | 1.47 | 1.81 | 1.94 (best price) |
| GTbets | 7.10 | 4.34 | 1.51 (best price) | 1.86 | 1.91 |
| Ladbrokes | 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.48 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 7.00 | 4.30 | 1.48 | 1.79 | 1.92 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 7.00 | 4.30 | 1.48 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 7.60 | 4.45 | 1.48 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 6.60 | 4.20 | 1.44 | 1.86 | 1.84 |
| Nordic Bet | 7.70 | 4.30 | 1.49 | 1.95 | 1.88 |
| Paddy Power | 7.00 | 4.33 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 7.29 | 4.46 | 1.48 | 1.98 (best price) | 1.91 |
| PMU (FR) | 7.00 | 4.30 | 1.48 | 1.72 | 1.85 |
| Sky Bet | 6.50 | 4.33 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 8.00 (best price) | 4.60 (best price) | 1.50 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 7.00 | 4.45 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 7.00 | 4.40 | 1.50 | 1.79 | 1.92 |
| Unibet (SE) | 7.00 | 4.35 | 1.49 | 1.79 | 1.92 |
| Unibet (UK) | 6.50 | 4.35 | 1.45 | — | — |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.44 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Winamax (DE) | 6.25 | 4.50 | 1.45 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 6.00 | 4.40 | 1.44 | — | — |
Analysis
Uruguay are the meaningful favourite. The market will price this close to fair.
Group H’s other Day 5 opener at Hard Rock Stadium. Late afternoon kickoff in Miami, neutral venue.
Saudi Arabia are the most-invested-in Asian football program of the past five years. The squad benefits from the Saudi Pro League salary boom (familiarity with high-level training environments) but also from the Saudi Pro League’s lower competitive ceiling than top European leagues. Elo (1579) reflects an inconsistent run since their 2022 World Cup high (the famous Argentina win). Capable of an upset; not a tier-1 side.
Uruguay are the South American tournament veteran. Through generational handover from the Suárez/Cavani era to the Núñez/Pellistri/Araujo generation, with central spine in De La Cruz and Valverde. Elo (1684) is fair. Tactically intense, vertical, transitions through pace; classic Uruguay grit on set pieces.
Model view. Uruguay 19% / 24% / 57%, xG 0.86–1.69, BTTS 47%. Clean Uruguay lean.
Betting angle. The market will price this in the 1.65–1.75 range on Uruguay ML, which is roughly fair on the model. Where to find edge:
- Uruguay -0.5 AH at 1.65+ — this is just ML in disguise but sometimes priced better
- Uruguay -1.5 AH at 2.30+ — model implies ~35%, fair ~2.86, books often miss on the spread
- Saudi Arabia +1.5 AH at 1.95+ — model implies ~76%, fair ~1.32 — sometimes available at value if books haven’t tuned the line
Avoid: BTTS markets (basically a coin flip, no edge), draw at short prices.
Verify before betting
- Uruguay's manager — Bielsa continuity?
- Saudi Pro League player share of the Saudi XI — fitness/match-load post-domestic season
- Miami heat at 6pm kickoff
- Set-piece personnel for Uruguay — historically a strong dead-ball side
Team news
Saudi Arabia · UruguayBets on this match
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