Model vs market
our call = 55% model + 45% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Spain | Draw | Saudi Arabia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 94.6% | 5.1% | 0.3% |
| Market (de-vig) | 89.6% | 7.7% | 2.7% |
| Our call | 92.4% | 6.3% | 1.4% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Spain's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Spain | Push | Saudi Arabia |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 80.8% | — | 19.2% |
| -1 | 80.8% | 13.8% | 5.4% |
| -0.5 | 94.6% | — | 5.4% |
| 0 | 94.6% | 5.1% | 0.3% |
| +0.5 | 99.7% | — | 0.3% |
| +1 | 99.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| +1.5 | 100.0% | — | 0.0% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| 2.5 | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| 3.5 | 41.3% | 58.8% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Spain or Draw | 99.7% |
| Draw or Saudi Arabia | 5.4% |
| Spain or Saudi Arabia (no draw) | 94.9% |
| DNB — Spain | 99.7% |
| DNB — Saudi Arabia | 0.3% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 3–0 | 20.5% |
| 2–0 | 19.3% |
| 4–0 | 16.3% |
| 1–0 | 12.0% |
| 5–0 | 10.4% |
| 6–0 | 5.5% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 30 books · as ofAll 30 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Spain | Draw | Saudi Arabia | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.13 (best price) | 11.00 (best price) | 29.00 (best price) | 1.44 (best price) | 2.50 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.09 | 10.70 | 29.00 (best price) | — | — |
| 888sport | 1.10 | 9.00 | 23.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.09 | 8.25 | 20.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.13 (best price) | 10.00 | 27.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.13 (best price) | 10.00 | 27.00 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.11 | 8.50 | 21.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.11 | 10.10 | 26.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.11 | 9.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.11 | 9.50 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.12 | 9.50 | 19.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.10 | 11.00 (best price) | 23.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.10 | 9.00 | 23.00 | — | — |
| GTbets | 1.13 (best price) | 9.04 | 21.19 | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 1.12 | 9.50 | 19.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.11 | 9.50 | 26.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.11 | 9.50 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.08 | 9.10 | 25.00 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.10 | 8.30 | 20.75 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 1.10 | 8.50 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.09 | 9.98 | 20.81 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.11 | 9.50 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 1.10 | 9.00 | 19.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.12 | 10.00 | 23.98 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.09 | 8.80 | 22.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.12 | 10.00 | 29.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.11 | 10.00 | 29.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.10 | 8.00 | 23.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.10 | 9.00 | 23.00 | 1.44 (best price) | 2.50 (best price) |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.07 | 8.00 | 15.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.07 | 7.50 | 14.50 | — | — |
Analysis
Spain are a near-lock at 1.10 — the only value is the under against a likely deep block.
Group H, matchday 2 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Spain are overwhelming favourites and a win likely locks up the group; Saudi Arabia are trying to keep it respectable.
Spain (Elo 1867) are the highest-rated side in the group — and one of the strongest in the field — priced at 1.10. The xG line of 2.43–0.12 is total domination, and the model gives them 89% to win.
Saudi Arabia (Elo 1579) are 288 Elo points back and the model gives them just 1% to win and a 10% BTTS. A deep, damage-limitation block is the realistic shape.
Model view. Spain 89% / 10% / 1%, xG 2.43–0.12, BTTS 10%, Under 2.5 53%. Heavily Spain.
Betting angle. The flagged edge is the under, not the win — the ML at 1.10 is fairly priced (model 89%). Under 2.5 at 2.50 implies 40% but the model gives 53% — a 13.1% edge. A Spain control job over a parked bus keeps the total down.
- Under 2.5 at 2.50 — model 53%, implied 40%, a 13.1% edge; the clear value
- Spain -1.5 AH ~1.5 — the 2.43–0.12 xG margin supports a comfortable multi-goal win
- BTTS no short — model 90% no, Saudi Arabia likely shut out
Avoid: Spain ML at 1.10 (no edge), Spain -3.5 chasing a rout the under contradicts, over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
Spain win this at a canter, but the value is the under at 2.50 — a controlled 2–0 against a deep block is the projected script. If Spain rotate as expected favourites, the under gets even stronger.
Verify before betting
- Spain's matchday-1 result — a win likely seals top spot
- Saudi Arabia's defensive block and how low they sit
- Atlanta roof environment for the goal-total read
- Spain rotation against clearly weaker opposition
Team news
Spain · Saudi ArabiaBets on this match
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