The model's pre-kickoff call was Spain win at 93.4%, and it gave the actual result (Spain win) 93.4%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 41 books · as ofAll 41 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Spain | Draw | Saudi Arabia | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.12 (best price) | 13.00 (best price) | 35.00 (best price) | 1.35 (best price) | 3.25 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.11 | 11.50 | 35.00 (best price) | — | — |
| 888sport | 1.08 | 10.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.06 | 11.00 | 29.00 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.10 | 12.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.10 | 11.00 | 24.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.12 (best price) | 13.00 (best price) | 28.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.12 (best price) | 13.00 (best price) | 28.00 | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.08 | 9.00 | 20.00 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.10 | 9.50 | 26.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.10 | 12.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Betsson | 1.09 | 11.50 | 31.00 | 1.35 (best price) | 3.25 (best price) |
| Betway | 1.09 | 11.00 | 23.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.08 | 10.00 | 21.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.08 | 11.50 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Codere (IT) | 1.09 | 11.00 | 23.00 | — | — |
| Coolbet | 1.12 (best price) | 11.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.09 | 12.00 | 21.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.10 | 11.00 | 21.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.09 | 11.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| GTbets | 1.12 (best price) | 10.40 | 24.61 | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 1.09 | 12.00 | 21.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.08 | 11.50 | 26.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.08 | 11.50 | 26.00 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.07 | 11.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.12 (best price) | 12.50 | 29.00 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.09 | 10.20 | 22.00 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.09 | 11.50 | 31.00 | 1.35 (best price) | 3.25 (best price) |
| Paddy Power | 1.08 | 11.00 | 21.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.11 | 12.00 | 24.00 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.08 | 11.50 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 1.07 | 13.00 (best price) | 20.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.12 (best price) | 12.50 | 28.99 | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.10 | 10.00 | 20.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.10 | 11.00 | 24.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.10 | 13.00 (best price) | 26.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.10 | 13.00 (best price) | 26.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.10 | 10.00 | 23.00 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.07 | 11.00 | 26.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.08 | 10.00 | 26.00 | 1.35 (best price) | 3.00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.09 | 12.50 | 19.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.09 | 12.00 | 19.00 | — | — |
Analysis
Spain are a near-lock at 1.10 — the only value is the under against a likely deep block.
Group H, matchday 2 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. Spain are overwhelming favourites and a win likely locks up the group; Saudi Arabia are trying to keep it respectable.
Spain (Elo 1867) are the highest-rated side in the group — and one of the strongest in the field — priced at 1.10. The xG line of 2.43–0.12 is total domination, and the model gives them 89% to win.
Saudi Arabia (Elo 1579) are 288 Elo points back and the model gives them just 1% to win and a 10% BTTS. A deep, damage-limitation block is the realistic shape.
Model view. Spain 89% / 10% / 1%, xG 2.43–0.12, BTTS 10%, Under 2.5 53%. Heavily Spain.
Model vs market. The flagged edge is the under, not the win — the ML at 1.10 is fairly priced (model 89%). Under 2.5 at 2.50 implies 40% but the model gives 53% — a 13.1% edge. A Spain control job over a parked bus keeps the total down.
- Under 2.5 at 2.50 — model 53%, implied 40%, a 13.1% edge; the clear value
- Spain -1.5 AH ~1.5 — the 2.43–0.12 xG margin supports a comfortable multi-goal win
- BTTS no short — model 90% no, Saudi Arabia likely shut out
Avoid: Spain ML at 1.10 (no edge), Spain -3.5 chasing a rout the under contradicts, over 2.5 against a 53% under read.
Spain win this at a canter, but the value is the under at 2.50 — a controlled 2–0 against a deep block is the projected script. If Spain rotate as expected favourites, the under gets even stronger.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Spain's matchday-1 result — a win likely seals top spot
- Saudi Arabia's defensive block and how low they sit
- Atlanta roof environment for the goal-total read
- Spain rotation against clearly weaker opposition