The model's pre-kickoff call was Uruguay win at 66.0%, and it gave the actual result (Draw) 22.3%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 40 books · as ofAll 40 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Uruguay | Draw | Cape Verde | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.47 (best price) | 4.54 (best price) | 10.50 (best price) | 2.32 (best price) | 1.69 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.45 | 4.54 (best price) | 9.65 | 2.25 | 1.69 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.40 | 4.00 | 8.50 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.40 | 4.20 | 9.00 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.42 | 4.30 | 9.50 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.42 | 4.50 | 9.50 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.45 | 4.50 | 10.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.45 | 4.50 | 10.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.44 | 4.20 | 8.50 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.43 | 4.40 | 9.80 | 2.32 (best price) | 1.67 |
| Betsson | 1.44 | 4.30 | 9.10 | 2.22 | 1.68 |
| Betway | 1.38 | 4.33 | 8.50 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.36 | 4.20 | 8.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.40 | 4.35 | 10.00 | 2.17 | 1.66 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.41 | 4.40 | 9.00 | 2.15 | 1.60 |
| Coolbet | 1.44 | 4.50 | 9.55 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.40 | 4.40 | 8.50 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.40 | 4.33 | 9.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.38 | 4.25 | 9.50 | 2.17 | 1.66 |
| GTbets | 1.47 (best price) | 4.22 | 8.81 | 2.21 | 1.65 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.40 | 4.33 | 8.50 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.40 | 4.35 | 10.00 | 2.17 | 1.66 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.40 | 4.35 | 10.00 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.37 | 4.25 | 9.50 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.45 | 4.50 | 10.50 (best price) | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.40 | 4.30 | 8.80 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.44 | 4.30 | 9.10 | 2.22 | 1.68 |
| Paddy Power | 1.36 | 4.20 | 9.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.43 | 4.50 | 9.50 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.42 | 4.50 | 10.50 (best price) | 2.12 | 1.63 |
| Sky Bet | 1.36 | 4.40 | 8.50 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.43 | 4.50 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.37 | 4.40 | 10.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.42 | 4.50 | 10.50 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.42 | 4.50 | 10.50 (best price) | 2.17 | 1.66 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.42 | 4.50 | 10.50 (best price) | 2.20 | 1.68 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.42 | 4.35 | 9.00 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.37 | 4.25 | 9.50 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.00 | 8.50 | 2.15 | 1.62 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.41 | 4.50 | 8.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.40 | 4.50 | 8.00 | — | — |
Analysis
Uruguay are favoured but the model rates Cape Verde higher than the market — value on the away dog.
Group H, matchday 2 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Uruguay are favoured to chase the runner-up spot behind Spain, but the model gives Cape Verde more respect than the price.
Uruguay (Elo 1684) are a physical, well-drilled South American side and favourites at 1.44. The xG line of 1.52–1.03 leans their way, and the model gives them 48% to win — notably below the price’s implied ~69%.
Cape Verde (Elo 1624) are only 60 Elo points back — organised, athletic, and a genuinely hard out. The model gives them 26% to win, well above the 7.36 away price.
Model view. Uruguay 48% / 26% / 26%, xG 1.52–1.03, BTTS 50%, Under 2.5 53%. Uruguay-leaning but far from a lock.
Model vs market. The data flags Cape Verde as the edge: 7.36 implies 14% but the model gives 26% — a 12.3% edge as the underrated away dog.
- Cape Verde ML at 7.36 — model 26%, fair ~3.85; the flagged value
- Draw at 4.35 — model 26%, fair ~3.85, live and underpriced in a closer-than-it-looks game
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 50%, two willing attacks
Avoid: Uruguay ML at 1.44 (model only 48% — an over-price), Uruguay -1.5 chasing a margin.
The market treats Uruguay as a clear favourite at 69% implied; the model says 48% and flags Cape Verde at 7.36 as the value dog. This is a fade-the-favourite-price spot — verify Uruguay’s veteran spine is fully fit.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — this likely shapes the runner-up race
- Uruguay's veteran spine and whether it's fully fit
- Cape Verde's organised, athletic approach as the underdog
- Miami Gardens heat and any rotation