Model vs market
our call = 59% model + 41% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Uruguay | Draw | Cape Verde |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 65.9% | 22.0% | 12.1% |
| Market (de-vig) | 67.6% | 20.6% | 11.7% |
| Our call | 66.6% | 21.4% | 12.0% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Uruguay's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Uruguay | Push | Cape Verde |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41.5% | — | 58.5% |
| -1 | 41.5% | 24.4% | 34.1% |
| -0.5 | 65.9% | — | 34.1% |
| 0 | 65.9% | 22.0% | 12.1% |
| +0.5 | 87.9% | — | 12.1% |
| +1 | 87.9% | 8.5% | 3.6% |
| +1.5 | 96.4% | — | 3.6% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76.5% | 23.5% |
| 2.5 | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| 3.5 | 29.2% | 70.8% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Uruguay or Draw | 87.9% |
| Draw or Cape Verde | 34.1% |
| Uruguay or Cape Verde (no draw) | 78.0% |
| DNB — Uruguay | 84.4% |
| DNB — Cape Verde | 15.6% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 12.9% |
| 1–0 | 12.2% |
| 1–1 | 10.4% |
| 2–1 | 9.6% |
| 3–0 | 8.6% |
| 0–0 | 7.4% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 30 books · as ofAll 30 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Uruguay | Draw | Cape Verde | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.51 (best price) | 4.65 (best price) | 8.00 (best price) | 1.93 (best price) | 1.92 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.47 | 4.42 | 7.31 | 1.93 (best price) | 1.92 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.40 | 4.00 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.41 | 4.30 | 6.75 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.51 (best price) | 4.60 | 7.60 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.51 (best price) | 4.60 | 7.60 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.44 | 4.33 | 7.50 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.44 | 4.65 (best price) | 8.00 (best price) | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| BoyleSports | 1.40 | 4.20 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.45 | 4.35 | 7.50 | 1.88 | 1.82 |
| Coral | 1.44 | 4.50 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.40 | 4.60 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.43 | 4.25 | 7.50 | 1.91 | 1.85 |
| GTbets | 1.47 | 4.44 | 7.00 | 1.88 | 1.88 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.44 | 4.40 | 7.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.45 | 4.35 | 7.50 | 1.88 | 1.82 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.45 | 4.35 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.43 | 4.30 | 7.10 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.42 | 4.30 | 6.80 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Paddy Power | 1.40 | 4.33 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.40 | 4.42 | 7.40 | 1.89 | 1.89 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.45 | 4.35 | 7.50 | 1.81 | 1.75 |
| Sky Bet | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.51 (best price) | 4.40 | 7.60 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.41 | 4.40 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.47 | 4.40 | 8.00 (best price) | 1.88 | 1.82 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.45 | 4.40 | 7.50 | 1.88 | 1.82 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.42 | 4.35 | 7.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.40 | 4.00 | 7.00 | 1.85 | 1.85 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.39 | 4.30 | 6.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.37 | 4.10 | 6.00 | — | — |
Analysis
Uruguay are favoured but the model rates Cape Verde higher than the market — value on the away dog.
Group H, matchday 2 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens. Uruguay are favoured to chase the runner-up spot behind Spain, but the model gives Cape Verde more respect than the price.
Uruguay (Elo 1684) are a physical, well-drilled South American side and favourites at 1.44. The xG line of 1.52–1.03 leans their way, and the model gives them 48% to win — notably below the price’s implied ~69%.
Cape Verde (Elo 1624) are only 60 Elo points back — organised, athletic, and a genuinely hard out. The model gives them 26% to win, well above the 7.36 away price.
Model view. Uruguay 48% / 26% / 26%, xG 1.52–1.03, BTTS 50%, Under 2.5 53%. Uruguay-leaning but far from a lock.
Betting angle. The data flags Cape Verde as the edge: 7.36 implies 14% but the model gives 26% — a 12.3% edge as the underrated away dog.
- Cape Verde ML at 7.36 — model 26%, fair ~3.85; the flagged value
- Draw at 4.35 — model 26%, fair ~3.85, live and underpriced in a closer-than-it-looks game
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 50%, two willing attacks
Avoid: Uruguay ML at 1.44 (model only 48% — an over-price), Uruguay -1.5 chasing a margin.
The market treats Uruguay as a clear favourite at 69% implied; the model says 48% and flags Cape Verde at 7.36 as the value dog. This is a fade-the-favourite-price spot — verify Uruguay’s veteran spine is fully fit.
Verify before betting
- Both sides' matchday-1 results — this likely shapes the runner-up race
- Uruguay's veteran spine and whether it's fully fit
- Cape Verde's organised, athletic approach as the underdog
- Miami Gardens heat and any rotation
Team news
Uruguay · Cape VerdeNo recent news mentioning Uruguay or Cape Verde.
Bets on this match
No bets placed.