Model vs market
our call = 43% model + 57% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Cape Verde | Draw | Saudi Arabia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 46.8% | 28.2% | 25.0% |
| Market (de-vig) | 36.1% | 29.0% | 34.9% |
| Our call | 40.7% | 28.6% | 30.6% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Cape Verde's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Cape Verde | Push | Saudi Arabia |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23.9% | — | 76.0% |
| -1 | 23.9% | 22.8% | 53.2% |
| -0.5 | 46.8% | — | 53.2% |
| 0 | 46.8% | 28.2% | 25.0% |
| +0.5 | 75.0% | — | 25.0% |
| +1 | 75.0% | 15.4% | 9.6% |
| +1.5 | 90.4% | — | 9.6% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 72.6% | 27.4% |
| 2.5 | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| 3.5 | 24.6% | 75.4% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Cape Verde or Draw | 75.0% |
| Draw or Saudi Arabia | 53.2% |
| Cape Verde or Saudi Arabia (no draw) | 71.8% |
| DNB — Cape Verde | 65.1% |
| DNB — Saudi Arabia | 34.8% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.4% |
| 1–0 | 11.0% |
| 2–1 | 9.2% |
| 0–0 | 9.2% |
| 2–0 | 9.0% |
| 0–1 | 7.2% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 27 books · as ofAll 27 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Cape Verde | Draw | Saudi Arabia | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 2.64 (best price) | 3.45 (best price) | 2.81 (best price) | 2.24 (best price) | 1.64 (best price) |
| 888sport | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.62 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.47 | 3.15 | 2.58 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.80 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.81 (best price) | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.80 | — | — |
| Casumo | 2.60 | 3.45 (best price) | 2.50 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| Coral | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.75 | — | — |
| Everygame | 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.80 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 2.60 | 3.45 (best price) | 2.50 | 2.20 | 1.62 |
| GTbets | 2.55 | 3.23 | 2.73 | 2.24 (best price) | 1.64 (best price) |
| Ladbrokes | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.75 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 2.60 | 3.45 (best price) | 2.50 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.60 | 3.45 (best price) | 2.50 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.60 | 3.45 (best price) | 2.50 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 2.58 | 3.20 | 2.69 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.52 | 3.16 | 2.73 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.75 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 2.58 | 3.20 | 2.74 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.75 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 2.64 (best price) | 3.10 | 2.76 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.60 | 3.45 (best price) | 2.50 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.60 | 3.45 (best price) | 2.50 | 2.17 | 1.61 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.75 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 2.60 | 3.45 (best price) | 2.50 | — | — |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.00 | 2.62 | 2.20 | 1.62 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.35 | 3.05 | 2.55 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.25 | 2.95 | 2.45 | — | — |
Analysis
A near-even Group H finale — model edges Cape Verde and flags a small price edge on the home win.
Group H, matchday 3 at NRG Stadium in Houston. With Spain expected to top the group, this is effectively a fight for the runner-up and best-third lanes between two evenly-matched sides.
Cape Verde (Elo 1624) are the home side and rated 45 Elo points above Saudi Arabia — organised, athletic, and a hard out. The model makes them slight favourites at 45%.
Saudi Arabia (Elo 1579) are the lower-rated team but disciplined and capable of frustrating. The model gives them 28% to win, with a real share of the draw equity.
Model view. Cape Verde 45% / 26% / 28%, xG 1.45–1.10, BTTS 51%, Under 2.5 53%. A close game with a faint home lean.
Betting angle. The data flags a modest edge on Cape Verde: 2.60 implies 38% but the model gives 45% — a 6.9% edge. Real but not large in a tight game.
- Cape Verde ML at 2.60 — model 45%, fair ~2.22; the flagged value
- Draw at 3.20 — model 26%, fair ~3.85, live and underpriced in a coin-flip
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 51%, two willing attacks
Avoid: Cape Verde -0.5 at a short price (only 45% to win), backing either side as a clear favourite — the model sees a tight one.
This is a near-even runner-up play-in, and the model’s small edge is on Cape Verde at 2.60 plus an underpriced draw. Confirm both sides’ qualification scenarios — a side needing only a draw will play it differently.
Verify before betting
- Group H standings — likely a play-in for the runner-up spot
- Cape Verde's athletic, organised approach at home
- Saudi Arabia's discipline and whether they must chase
- Houston roof/heat environment and any rotation
Team news
Cape Verde · Saudi ArabiaBets on this match
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