Model vs market
our call = 45% model + 55% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Cape Verde | Draw | Saudi Arabia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 50.2% | 27.3% | 22.4% |
| Market (de-vig) | 41.0% | 26.9% | 32.1% |
| Our call | 45.2% | 27.1% | 27.8% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Cape Verde's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Cape Verde | Push | Saudi Arabia |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26.8% | — | 73.2% |
| -1 | 26.8% | 23.4% | 49.8% |
| -0.5 | 50.2% | — | 49.8% |
| 0 | 50.2% | 27.3% | 22.4% |
| +0.5 | 77.6% | — | 22.4% |
| +1 | 77.6% | 14.1% | 8.3% |
| +1.5 | 91.7% | — | 8.3% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73.4% | 26.6% |
| 2.5 | 47.0% | 53.0% |
| 3.5 | 25.4% | 74.6% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Cape Verde or Draw | 77.6% |
| Draw or Saudi Arabia | 49.8% |
| Cape Verde or Saudi Arabia (no draw) | 72.7% |
| DNB — Cape Verde | 69.2% |
| DNB — Saudi Arabia | 30.9% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 1–1 | 13.0% |
| 1–0 | 11.2% |
| 2–0 | 9.7% |
| 2–1 | 9.4% |
| 0–0 | 8.8% |
| 0–1 | 6.6% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 36 books · as ofAll 36 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Cape Verde | Draw | Saudi Arabia | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 2.48 (best price) | 3.66 (best price) | 3.10 (best price) | 2.06 (best price) | 1.90 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.62 | 3.02 | 2.01 | 1.86 |
| 888sport | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.80 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.30 | 3.53 | 2.87 | — | — |
| Betfair | 2.48 (best price) | 3.60 | 3.10 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 2.48 (best price) | 3.60 | 3.10 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.88 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.40 | 3.66 (best price) | 2.90 | 2.03 | 1.84 |
| Betway | 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.80 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.90 | — | — |
| Casumo | 2.38 | 3.55 | 2.95 | 1.95 | 1.81 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.35 | 3.45 | 2.95 | 1.94 | 1.74 |
| Coolbet | 2.40 | 3.50 | 3.05 | 2.00 | 1.87 |
| Coral | 2.37 | 3.40 | 3.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 2.35 | 3.45 | 2.95 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 2.33 | 3.45 | 2.88 | 1.95 | 1.81 |
| GTbets | 2.42 | 3.62 | 2.96 | 2.02 | 1.81 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.90 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 2.38 | 3.55 | 2.95 | 1.95 | 1.81 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.38 | 3.55 | 2.95 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.32 | 3.45 | 2.85 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 2.48 (best price) | 3.60 | 3.10 (best price) | 2.06 (best price) | 1.90 (best price) |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.33 | 3.44 | 2.94 | 1.96 | 1.76 |
| Paddy Power | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.88 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 2.40 | 3.49 | 2.98 | 2.00 | 1.88 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.32 | 3.45 | 2.85 | 1.91 | 1.77 |
| Sky Bet | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.88 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 2.46 | 3.60 | 3.10 (best price) | — | — |
| Tipico | 2.30 | 3.50 | 3.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.30 | 3.55 | 3.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.38 | 3.55 | 2.95 | 1.95 | 1.81 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.38 | 3.55 | 2.95 | 1.97 | 1.83 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.90 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 2.32 | 3.45 | 2.85 | — | — |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.88 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.25 | 3.60 | 2.85 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.25 | 3.55 | 2.80 | — | — |
Analysis
A near-even Group H finale — model edges Cape Verde and flags a small price edge on the home win.
Group H, matchday 3 at NRG Stadium in Houston. With Spain expected to top the group, this is effectively a fight for the runner-up and best-third lanes between two evenly-matched sides.
Cape Verde (Elo 1624) are the home side and rated 45 Elo points above Saudi Arabia — organised, athletic, and a hard out. The model makes them slight favourites at 45%.
Saudi Arabia (Elo 1579) are the lower-rated team but disciplined and capable of frustrating. The model gives them 28% to win, with a real share of the draw equity.
Model view. Cape Verde 45% / 26% / 28%, xG 1.45–1.10, BTTS 51%, Under 2.5 53%. A close game with a faint home lean.
Model vs market. The data flags a modest edge on Cape Verde: 2.60 implies 38% but the model gives 45% — a 6.9% edge. Real but not large in a tight game.
- Cape Verde ML at 2.60 — model 45%, fair ~2.22; the flagged value
- Draw at 3.20 — model 26%, fair ~3.85, live and underpriced in a coin-flip
- BTTS yes ~1.85 — model 51%, two willing attacks
Avoid: Cape Verde -0.5 at a short price (only 45% to win), backing either side as a clear favourite — the model sees a tight one.
This is a near-even runner-up play-in, and the model’s small edge is on Cape Verde at 2.60 plus an underpriced draw. Confirm both sides’ qualification scenarios — a side needing only a draw will play it differently.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Group H standings — likely a play-in for the runner-up spot
- Cape Verde's athletic, organised approach at home
- Saudi Arabia's discipline and whether they must chase
- Houston roof/heat environment and any rotation