Model vs market
our call = 49% model + 51% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Uruguay | Draw | Spain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 8.2% | 18.8% | 73.1% |
| Market (de-vig) | 13.5% | 21.6% | 64.9% |
| Our call | 10.9% | 20.2% | 68.9% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Uruguay's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Uruguay | Push | Spain |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2.1% | — | 97.9% |
| -1 | 2.1% | 6.1% | 91.8% |
| -0.5 | 8.2% | — | 91.8% |
| 0 | 8.2% | 18.8% | 73.1% |
| +0.5 | 26.9% | — | 73.1% |
| +1 | 26.9% | 23.7% | 49.4% |
| +1.5 | 50.6% | — | 49.4% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77.6% | 22.4% |
| 2.5 | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| 3.5 | 30.8% | 69.2% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Uruguay or Draw | 26.9% |
| Draw or Spain | 91.8% |
| Uruguay or Spain (no draw) | 81.3% |
| DNB — Uruguay | 10.1% |
| DNB — Spain | 90.0% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 0–2 | 14.6% |
| 0–1 | 12.6% |
| 0–3 | 10.7% |
| 1–2 | 8.9% |
| 1–1 | 8.8% |
| 0–0 | 6.8% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 36 books · as ofAll 36 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Uruguay | Draw | Spain | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 8.00 (best price) | 4.51 (best price) | 1.54 (best price) | 1.88 (best price) | 2.07 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 6.92 | 4.51 (best price) | 1.54 (best price) | 1.85 | 2.02 |
| 888sport | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 7.25 | 4.00 | 1.48 | — | — |
| Betfair | 8.00 (best price) | 4.30 | 1.54 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 8.00 (best price) | 4.30 | 1.54 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.50 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 7.50 | 4.25 | 1.50 | 1.81 | 2.07 (best price) |
| Betway | 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.45 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 7.00 | 4.20 | 1.40 | — | — |
| Casumo | 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.54 (best price) | 1.81 | 1.95 |
| Codere (IT) | 6.80 | 4.40 | 1.49 | 1.77 | 1.90 |
| Coolbet | 6.75 | 4.50 | 1.52 | 1.83 | 2.05 |
| Coral | 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Everygame | 7.50 | 4.20 | 1.45 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 6.25 | 4.10 | 1.51 | 1.81 | 1.95 |
| GTbets | 6.80 | 4.18 | 1.50 | 1.83 | 1.95 |
| Ladbrokes | 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.50 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.54 (best price) | 1.81 | 1.95 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.54 (best price) | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 6.25 | 4.10 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 8.00 (best price) | 4.30 | 1.54 (best price) | 1.88 (best price) | 2.06 |
| MyBookie.ag | 6.60 | 4.30 | 1.48 | 1.79 | 1.93 |
| Paddy Power | 7.00 | 4.00 | 1.44 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 7.52 | 4.19 | 1.49 | 1.84 | 2.04 |
| PMU (FR) | 6.25 | 4.10 | 1.50 | 1.77 | 1.92 |
| Sky Bet | 7.00 | 3.90 | 1.50 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 8.00 (best price) | 4.20 | 1.54 (best price) | — | — |
| Tipico | 7.50 | 4.30 | 1.45 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 6.90 | 4.35 | 1.48 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.54 (best price) | 1.81 | 1.95 |
| Unibet (SE) | 6.50 | 4.20 | 1.54 (best price) | 1.83 | 2.00 |
| Unibet (UK) | 6.50 | 4.25 | 1.48 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 6.25 | 4.10 | 1.50 | — | — |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.44 | 1.80 | 1.91 |
| Winamax (DE) | 6.25 | 4.30 | 1.48 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 6.00 | 4.30 | 1.47 | — | — |
Analysis
Group H top-spot decider — Spain are clear favourites and the model flags a real edge on the away win.
Group H, matchday 3 at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara. Two of the group’s strongest sides meet to settle top spot, with Spain the clear class side but Uruguay capable of making it physical at altitude.
Uruguay (Elo 1684) are physical and well-organised but rated 183 Elo points below Spain. The model gives them just 9% to win; their best hope is a low-scoring, attritional game.
Spain (Elo 1867) are the highest-rated side in the group and favoured at 1.62. The xG line of 2.01–0.54 reflects expected control, and the model gives them 72% to win — above the price’s implied ~62%.
Model view. Spain 9% / 19% / 72% (home/draw/away), xG 0.54–2.01, BTTS 36%, Under 2.5 53%. Firmly Spain.
Model vs market. The data flags Spain as the edge: 1.62 implies 62% but the model gives 72% — a 10.5% edge. The market is slightly underrating the class gap, possibly pricing in rotation.
- Spain ML at 1.62 — model 72%, fair ~1.39; the flagged value if Spain field a strong XI
- Spain -0.5 AH = the straight win, 72%, same fair ~1.39
- Under 2.5 at 1.81 — model 53%, fair ~1.89, supported by Uruguay’s attritional style and altitude
Avoid: Uruguay ML (9%), over 2.5 at the implied price, laying Spain on a large handicap against a physical side.
Spain are correctly favoured and the model flags a 10% edge on the ML at 1.62. The swing factor is rotation — if Spain rest starters with the group in hand, the value shifts to Uruguay and the draw; confirm the lineup.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Group H standings — this likely decides the group winner
- Whether Spain are already through and may rotate
- Uruguay's physical approach vs Spain's possession game
- Guadalajara altitude and Spain's lineup intentions