The model's pre-kickoff call was France win at 65.1%, and it gave the actual result (France win) 65.1%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 41 books · as ofAll 41 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | France | Draw | Senegal | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.50 (best price) | 4.80 (best price) | 8.00 (best price) | 1.80 (best price) | 2.22 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.50 (best price) | 4.64 | 7.37 | 1.76 | 2.13 |
| 888sport | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.44 | 4.33 | 7.00 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.45 | 4.50 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.48 | 4.75 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.49 | 4.80 (best price) | 8.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.49 | 4.80 (best price) | 8.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.36 | 3.75 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.44 | 4.33 | 7.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.45 | 4.73 | 7.70 | 1.74 | 2.20 |
| Betsson | 1.47 | 4.60 | 7.10 | 1.75 | 2.10 |
| Betway | 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.50 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.44 | 4.33 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.45 | 4.40 | 7.00 | 1.73 | 2.06 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.47 | 4.50 | 6.60 | 1.68 | 2.02 |
| Coolbet | 1.49 | 4.60 | 7.50 | 1.77 | 2.13 |
| Coral | 1.48 | 4.60 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.45 | 4.50 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.45 | 4.40 | 7.00 | 1.73 | 2.06 |
| GTbets | 1.47 | 4.34 | 7.06 | 1.74 | 2.02 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.48 | 4.50 | 6.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.45 | 4.40 | 7.00 | 1.73 | 2.06 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.45 | 4.40 | 7.00 | — | — |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.45 | 4.30 | 6.75 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.50 (best price) | 4.80 (best price) | 8.00 (best price) | 1.80 (best price) | 2.22 (best price) |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.45 | 4.50 | 6.70 | 1.74 | 2.10 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.47 | 4.60 | 7.10 | 1.75 | 2.10 |
| Paddy Power | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.49 | 4.65 | 7.40 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.49 | 4.60 | 7.50 | 1.70 | 2.02 |
| Sky Bet | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.48 | 4.80 (best price) | 8.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.42 | 4.70 | 7.20 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.48 | 4.75 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.49 | 4.60 | 7.50 | 1.73 | 2.06 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.49 | 4.60 | 7.50 | 1.76 | 2.10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.50 (best price) | 4.35 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.45 | 4.30 | 6.75 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.50 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.45 | 4.75 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.45 | 4.75 | 7.00 | — | — |
Analysis
The closest top-tier match of the opening week. Model says pick'em with a slight France lean.
Group I’s marquee opener at MetLife Stadium. Prime-time slot. Both teams arrive with World Cup pedigree of the past 8 years — France twice in finals, Senegal as AFCON champions.
France are coming off a 2022 final loss to Argentina and a Euro 2024 semi-final exit. The Elo (1797) is solid-but-not-elite — the trough between the 2018 peak and what comes next. Mbappé is still the offensive engine, the central midfield is the question mark, and the squad depth across positions is among the deepest in the field.
Senegal are an underrated side at this level. AFCON 2021 winners, World Cup 2022 round of 16, qualified through CAF cleanly. The squad has high-quality Europe-based starters across positions (Mané — if fit and selected — Sarr, Koulibaly, Mendy). Tactically pragmatic, comfortable in low blocks, lethal in transition. Elo (1776) is just 21 points below France.
Model view. France 41% / 27% / 33%, xG 1.36–1.19, BTTS 52%. The closest top-tier match of matchdays 1–7.
Model vs market. The market will price France around 1.85-1.95 ML and Senegal around 4.50–5.00 — both wrong relative to the model. Where to find edge:
- Senegal ML at 3.80+ — model 33%, fair ~3.03, common public underpricing of African sides
- Draw at 3.40+ — model 27%, fair ~3.70
- Senegal +0.5 AH at 1.80+ — combined Senegal-win + draw = 60%, fair ~1.67
- BTTS-Yes at 1.90+ — model 52%, fair ~1.92
Avoid: France -1.5 AH (only ~22% probability), France ML under 2.20.
This is the second-best ML value pick of the matchday after Egypt. Senegal at 4.00+ should be a real position size.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- Mbappé role — left winger, central, or false-9?
- Sané/Sarr availability for Senegal
- France central-midfield shape — Tchouaméni-Camavinga partnership health
- MetLife pitch condition (NFL season residue)
- Both sides have generational players entering twilight; check minutes-management plans