Model vs market
our call = 56% model + 44% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | France | Draw | Senegal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 63.3% | 23.1% | 13.6% |
| Market (de-vig) | 67.7% | 20.0% | 12.4% |
| Our call | 65.2% | 21.8% | 13.0% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from France's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | France | Push | Senegal |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 38.8% | — | 61.2% |
| -1 | 38.8% | 24.5% | 36.7% |
| -0.5 | 63.3% | — | 36.7% |
| 0 | 63.3% | 23.1% | 13.6% |
| +0.5 | 86.5% | — | 13.6% |
| +1 | 86.5% | 9.4% | 4.2% |
| +1.5 | 95.9% | — | 4.2% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75.5% | 24.4% |
| 2.5 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| 3.5 | 28.0% | 72.0% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| France or Draw | 86.5% |
| Draw or Senegal | 36.7% |
| France or Senegal (no draw) | 76.9% |
| DNB — France | 82.4% |
| DNB — Senegal | 17.6% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 12.5% |
| 1–0 | 12.3% |
| 1–1 | 11.0% |
| 2–1 | 9.6% |
| 3–0 | 7.9% |
| 0–0 | 7.8% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 36 books · as ofAll 36 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | France | Draw | Senegal | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.49 (best price) | 4.90 (best price) | 8.00 (best price) | 1.94 (best price) | 2.00 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 1.49 (best price) | 4.50 | 7.40 | 1.90 | 1.92 |
| 888sport | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.50 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 1.45 | 4.45 | 7.00 | 1.91 | 1.91 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.46 | 4.55 | 6.90 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.48 | 4.90 (best price) | 8.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.48 | 4.90 (best price) | 8.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.44 | 4.33 | 7.50 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.45 | 4.65 | 7.55 | 1.89 | 1.93 |
| Betsson | 1.47 | 4.35 | 7.70 | 1.88 | 1.95 |
| Betway | 1.40 | 4.33 | 6.50 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.42 | 4.70 | 7.50 | 1.75 | 1.96 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.47 | 4.50 | 6.80 | 1.81 | 1.86 |
| Coolbet | 1.47 | 4.50 | 8.00 (best price) | 1.85 | 1.96 |
| Coral | 1.44 | 4.40 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.45 | 4.50 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.41 | 4.60 | 7.00 | 1.77 | 2.00 (best price) |
| GTbets | 1.47 | 4.58 | 7.06 | 1.83 | 1.96 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.44 | 4.40 | 7.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.42 | 4.70 | 7.50 | 1.75 | 1.96 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.42 | 4.70 | 7.50 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.48 | 4.50 | 7.50 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.44 | 4.30 | 6.50 | 1.82 | 1.88 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.47 | 4.35 | 7.70 | 1.88 | 1.95 |
| Paddy Power | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.47 | 4.54 | 7.28 | 1.94 (best price) | 1.94 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.43 | 4.90 (best price) | 7.50 | 1.68 | 1.88 |
| Sky Bet | 1.40 | 4.50 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.47 | 4.90 (best price) | 8.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.45 | 4.70 | 7.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.43 | 4.80 | 7.50 | 1.75 | 1.96 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.42 | 4.80 | 7.50 | 1.75 | 1.96 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.45 | 4.35 | 6.50 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.50 | 1.80 | 1.91 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.45 | 4.50 | 6.50 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.43 | 4.30 | 6.25 | — | — |
Analysis
The closest top-tier match of the opening week. Model says pick'em with a slight France lean.
Group I’s marquee opener at MetLife Stadium. Prime-time slot. Both teams arrive with World Cup pedigree of the past 8 years — France twice in finals, Senegal as AFCON champions.
France are coming off a 2022 final loss to Argentina and a Euro 2024 semi-final exit. The Elo (1797) is solid-but-not-elite — the trough between the 2018 peak and what comes next. Mbappé is still the offensive engine, the central midfield is the question mark, and the squad depth across positions is among the deepest in the field.
Senegal are an underrated side at this level. AFCON 2021 winners, World Cup 2022 round of 16, qualified through CAF cleanly. The squad has high-quality Europe-based starters across positions (Mané — if fit and selected — Sarr, Koulibaly, Mendy). Tactically pragmatic, comfortable in low blocks, lethal in transition. Elo (1776) is just 21 points below France.
Model view. France 41% / 27% / 33%, xG 1.36–1.19, BTTS 52%. The closest top-tier match of matchdays 1–7.
Betting angle. The market will price France around 1.85-1.95 ML and Senegal around 4.50–5.00 — both wrong relative to the model. Where to find edge:
- Senegal ML at 3.80+ — model 33%, fair ~3.03, common public underpricing of African sides
- Draw at 3.40+ — model 27%, fair ~3.70
- Senegal +0.5 AH at 1.80+ — combined Senegal-win + draw = 60%, fair ~1.67
- BTTS-Yes at 1.90+ — model 52%, fair ~1.92
Avoid: France -1.5 AH (only ~22% probability), France ML under 2.20.
This is the second-best ML value bet of the matchday after Egypt. Senegal at 4.00+ should be a real position size.
Verify before betting
- Mbappé role — left winger, central, or false-9?
- Sané/Sarr availability for Senegal
- France central-midfield shape — Tchouaméni-Camavinga partnership health
- MetLife pitch condition (NFL season residue)
- Both sides have generational players entering twilight; check minutes-management plans
Team news
France · SenegalBets on this match
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