Model vs market
our call = 55% model + 45% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | Iraq | Draw | Norway |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 7.0% | 17.3% | 75.7% |
| Market (de-vig) | 6.2% | 13.2% | 80.6% |
| Our call | 6.6% | 15.5% | 77.9% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from Iraq's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | Iraq | Push | Norway |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1.7% | — | 98.3% |
| -1 | 1.7% | 5.3% | 93.0% |
| -0.5 | 7.0% | — | 93.0% |
| 0 | 7.0% | 17.3% | 75.7% |
| +0.5 | 24.3% | — | 75.7% |
| +1 | 24.3% | 23.1% | 52.6% |
| +1.5 | 47.4% | — | 52.6% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78.6% | 21.4% |
| 2.5 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| 3.5 | 32.2% | 67.8% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| Iraq or Draw | 24.3% |
| Draw or Norway | 93.0% |
| Iraq or Norway (no draw) | 82.7% |
| DNB — Iraq | 8.4% |
| DNB — Norway | 91.6% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 0–2 | 15.0% |
| 0–1 | 12.4% |
| 0–3 | 11.5% |
| 1–2 | 8.6% |
| 1–1 | 8.1% |
| 0–4 | 6.6% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 36 books · as ofAll 36 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | Iraq | Draw | Norway | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 16.00 (best price) | 7.40 (best price) | 1.25 (best price) | 1.60 (best price) | 2.40 (best price) |
| 1xBet | 14.50 | 6.80 | 1.23 | 1.59 | 2.39 |
| 888sport | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| BetAnything | 13.00 | 6.75 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 12.25 | 6.40 | 1.19 | — | — |
| Betfair | 15.50 | 7.40 (best price) | 1.24 | — | — |
| Betfair | 15.50 | 7.40 (best price) | 1.24 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 15.00 | 6.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 14.00 | 7.25 | 1.21 | — | — |
| Betsson | 15.50 | 6.10 | 1.23 | 1.60 (best price) | 2.38 |
| Betway | 11.00 | 6.50 | 1.20 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Casumo | 12.00 | 6.50 | 1.23 | 1.51 | 2.38 |
| Codere (IT) | 13.00 | 6.60 | 1.22 | 1.54 | 2.27 |
| Coolbet | 16.00 (best price) | 6.75 | 1.22 | — | — |
| Coral | 12.00 | 7.00 | 1.22 | — | — |
| Everygame | 13.00 | 7.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 11.50 | 6.40 | 1.22 | 1.54 | 2.40 (best price) |
| GTbets | 12.97 | 6.58 | 1.25 (best price) | 1.60 (best price) | 2.38 |
| Ladbrokes | 12.00 | 6.50 | 1.22 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 12.00 | 6.50 | 1.23 | 1.51 | 2.38 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 12.00 | 6.50 | 1.23 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 15.25 | 6.80 | 1.22 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 12.00 | 6.20 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 15.50 | 6.10 | 1.23 | 1.60 (best price) | 2.38 |
| Paddy Power | 13.00 | 6.50 | 1.18 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 13.94 | 7.18 | 1.21 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 12.00 | 6.50 | 1.23 | 1.45 | 2.28 |
| Sky Bet | 11.00 | 7.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 15.50 | 7.20 | 1.23 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 13.00 | 6.70 | 1.20 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 12.50 | 6.75 | 1.24 | 1.51 | 2.38 |
| Unibet (SE) | 12.50 | 6.75 | 1.23 | 1.51 | 2.38 |
| Unibet (UK) | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.20 | — | — |
| William Hill | 13.00 | 6.00 | 1.20 | 1.55 | 2.30 |
| Winamax (DE) | 10.50 | 6.50 | 1.22 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 10.00 | 6.25 | 1.20 | — | — |
Analysis
Norway's first World Cup since 1998. The model has them favoured but tighter than the public expects.
Group I’s secondary Day 6 fixture at Gillette Stadium. Late kickoff. Neutral venue, both sides travelling.
Iraq are the rare AFC qualifier who came through without a single embarrassing result. The squad has improved steadily through the cycle and arrives without the depth of an Iran or South Korea but with a clear identity: deep mid-block, transitions through wide pace, set-piece danger. Elo (1651) is the highest Iraq has ever rated.
Norway are at their first World Cup since 1998. The squad on paper is the best Norway has ever fielded — Haaland leading the line, Ødegaard captaining, Bobb/Nusa on the flanks, Aursnes/Berge in midfield. The Elo (1724) actually understates the talent ceiling, but it correctly captures the variance: Norway have been an awful tournament-qualifier for two decades and the dataset can’t easily distinguish “talented but inexperienced” from “good but unlucky.”
Model view. Norway 24% / 25% / 51%, xG 0.99–1.56, BTTS 50%. Norway favoured but not heavily.
Betting angle. The market will overrate Norway because of Haaland’s brand, underrate Iraq because the public can’t name a starter. That makes:
- Iraq +0.5 AH at 2.00+ — combined Iraq-win + draw = 49%, fair ~2.04
- Draw at 3.30+ — model 25%, fair ~4.00, market will price shorter on a one-side narrative
- Over 2.5 at 2.00+ — Norway with Haaland scores at a high rate when they score at all; tournament debut nerves push the other direction
Avoid: Norway -1.5 AH (only ~22%), Haaland over 0.5 goals at any price below 2.00 (Norway can be shut down for stretches at this level).
The Norway-debut narrative is going to drive their lines short. This is a market-fade spot, not a Norway-follow spot.
Verify before betting
- Haaland's fitness and minutes — is the manager rotating him?
- Ødegaard role — playmaking 10 or shifted wide?
- Iraq's defensive shape — five-back default vs continental opponents
- Boston weather; June can be 28°C and humid by evening kickoff
Team news
Iraq · NorwayBets on this match
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