Model vs market
our call = 51% model + 49% market hereThe raw Elo+Poisson model can't see squad quality and is mis-scaled across confederations, so on lopsided matchups it disagrees sharply with a deep multi-book market. We publish a blend, and trust the model less the more it disagrees — so the model's share above is lower for the games where it strays furthest. The divergence tracker shows the raw gaps.
| 1X2 | France | Draw | Iraq |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw model | 80.8% | 14.5% | 4.7% |
| Market (de-vig) | 88.0% | 9.1% | 2.9% |
| Our call | 84.3% | 11.9% | 3.8% |
Asian markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixHandicaps from France's side (−0.5 = must win outright; +0.5 = covers unless they lose). Half-lines can't push; whole lines can. No AH odds sourced yet, so these are probabilities, not edges.
| Handicap | France | Push | Iraq |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 59.1% | — | 40.9% |
| -1 | 59.1% | 21.7% | 19.2% |
| -0.5 | 80.8% | — | 19.2% |
| 0 | 80.8% | 14.5% | 4.7% |
| +0.5 | 95.3% | — | 4.7% |
| +1 | 95.3% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| +1.5 | 99.0% | — | 1.0% |
| Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79.8% | 20.3% |
| 2.5 | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| 3.5 | 34.0% | 66.0% |
More markets
model probabilities · derived from the score matrixDouble chance, Draw-No-Bet and the likeliest exact scores, summed from the same Dixon-Coles scoreline distribution as the 1X2 numbers. No odds sourced for these, so they're probabilities, not edges.
| Double chance | Prob |
|---|---|
| France or Draw | 95.3% |
| Draw or Iraq | 19.2% |
| France or Iraq (no draw) | 85.5% |
| DNB — France | 94.5% |
| DNB — Iraq | 5.5% |
| Likeliest score | Prob |
|---|---|
| 2–0 | 16.1% |
| 3–0 | 13.3% |
| 1–0 | 12.5% |
| 4–0 | 8.2% |
| 2–1 | 7.6% |
| 1–1 | 6.7% |
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 29 books · as ofAll 29 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | France | Draw | Iraq | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.14 (best price) | 10.15 (best price) | 28.00 (best price) | 1.50 (best price) | 2.40 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.12 | 7.50 | 23.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.09 | 7.75 | 21.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.14 (best price) | 9.20 | 27.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.14 (best price) | 9.20 | 27.00 | — | — |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.14 (best price) | 7.50 | 21.00 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.11 | 10.15 (best price) | 28.00 (best price) | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.11 | 8.50 | 26.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.13 | 8.50 | 23.00 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.12 | 9.00 | 21.00 | — | — |
| Everygame | 1.12 | 8.00 | 23.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.12 | 8.00 | 20.00 | — | — |
| GTbets | 1.11 | 8.31 | 21.35 | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 1.12 | 9.00 | 19.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas | 1.13 | 8.50 | 23.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.13 | 8.50 | 23.00 | — | — |
| Marathon Bet | 1.10 | 7.90 | 27.00 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.11 | 7.80 | 21.00 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 1.11 | 8.00 | 23.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.12 | 7.72 | 22.63 | — | — |
| PMU (FR) | 1.13 | 8.50 | 23.00 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 1.13 | 8.00 | 17.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.12 | 9.00 | 21.98 | — | — |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.09 | 8.30 | 23.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.14 (best price) | 9.00 | 25.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.13 | 9.00 | 23.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.10 | 7.50 | 23.00 | — | — |
| William Hill | 1.12 | 7.50 | 23.00 | 1.50 (best price) | 2.40 (best price) |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.08 | 7.75 | 16.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.07 | 7.25 | 15.00 | — | — |
Analysis
France are a 1.12 near-lock — the value is on the under and the long-shot derivatives, not the win.
Group I, matchday 2 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. France are overwhelming favourites and a win likely locks up the group; Iraq are trying to keep it competitive.
France (Elo 1797) are the group’s standout name, priced at 1.12. The xG line of 1.86–0.69 is comfortable but notably not a blowout projection — which is where the angle sits. The model gives them 65% to win, well below the price’s implied ~89%.
Iraq (Elo 1651) are higher-rated than their reputation and the model gives them more credit than the long prices imply, both via the draw and a puncher’s away win.
Model view. France 65% / 22% / 13%, xG 1.86–0.69, BTTS 42%, Under 2.5 53%. France favoured but the win number sits far below 1.12.
Betting angle. The data flags three edges — and the win is NOT one of them. The book has France at ~89% implied; the model says 65%. The value is the under, the draw, and even the Iraq win at long prices.
- Under 2.5 at 2.40 — model 53%, implied 42%, an 11.4% edge; if France control rather than rout, this is the play
- Draw at 8.30 — model 22%, implied 12%, a 9.5% edge; rotation/complacency makes this live
- Iraq ML at 23.00 — model 13%, implied 4%, an 8.8% edge; a tiny-stake lottery with real model backing
Avoid: France ML at 1.12 (model only 65% — a severe over-price), France -2.5 chasing a blowout the xG doesn’t project.
The market treats this as a France formality at 89% implied; the model says 65% and stacks the value on the under, the draw, and the long-shot Iraq win. This is a fade-the-favourite-price spot, not a follow-France spot.
Verify before betting
- France's matchday-1 result — a win likely seals top spot
- France rotation risk against clearly weaker opposition
- Iraq's defensive block and how deep they sit
- Philadelphia conditions for the goal-total read
Team news
France · IraqBets on this match
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