The model's pre-kickoff call was France win at 87.5%, and it gave the actual result (France win) 87.5%.
Bookmaker odds
line-shopping · 28 books · as ofAll 28 bookmakersline-shopping · best price marked ★
| Bookmaker | France | Draw | Iraq | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Best available | 1.11 (best price) | 50.00 (best price) | 300.00 (best price) | 1.35 (best price) | 3.25 (best price) |
| 888sport | 1.02 | 23.00 | 91.00 | — | — |
| Bet Victor | 1.02 | 20.00 | 61.00 | — | — |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.01 | 19.00 | 60.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.02 | 46.00 | 180.00 | — | — |
| Betfair | 1.02 | 50.00 (best price) | 300.00 (best price) | — | — |
| Betsson | 1.11 (best price) | 10.00 | 32.00 | 1.35 (best price) | 3.25 (best price) |
| Betway | 1.02 | 23.00 | 51.00 | — | — |
| BoyleSports | 1.02 | 29.00 | 151.00 | — | — |
| Casumo | 1.02 | 21.00 | 91.00 | — | — |
| Coolbet | 1.02 | 28.00 | 150.00 | — | — |
| Coral | 1.02 | 19.00 | 51.00 | — | — |
| Grosvenor | 1.01 | 21.00 | 67.00 | — | — |
| Ladbrokes | 1.02 | 19.00 | 51.00 | — | — |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.06 | 8.00 | 21.00 | — | — |
| Matchbook | 1.02 | 50.00 (best price) | 300.00 (best price) | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.02 | 12.75 | 56.00 | — | — |
| Nordic Bet | 1.01 | 19.00 | 50.00 | — | — |
| Paddy Power | 1.02 | 29.00 | 176.00 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | 1.08 | 10.42 | 21.81 | — | — |
| Sky Bet | 1.02 | 26.00 | 151.00 | — | — |
| Smarkets | 1.02 | 44.05 | 200.00 | — | — |
| Tipico | 1.02 | 15.00 | 25.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.02 | 21.00 | 91.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.02 | 21.00 | 91.00 | — | — |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.01 | 26.00 | 176.00 | — | — |
| Virgin Bet | 1.01 | 20.00 | 61.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.02 | 27.00 | 75.00 | — | — |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.01 | 26.00 | 75.00 | — | — |
Analysis
France are a 1.12 near-lock — the value is on the under and the long-shot derivatives, not the win.
Group I, matchday 2 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. France are overwhelming favourites and a win likely locks up the group; Iraq are trying to keep it competitive.
France (Elo 1797) are the group’s standout name, priced at 1.12. The xG line of 1.86–0.69 is comfortable but notably not a blowout projection — which is where the angle sits. The model gives them 65% to win, well below the price’s implied ~89%.
Iraq (Elo 1651) are higher-rated than their reputation and the model gives them more credit than the long prices imply, both via the draw and a puncher’s away win.
Model view. France 65% / 22% / 13%, xG 1.86–0.69, BTTS 42%, Under 2.5 53%. France favoured but the win number sits far below 1.12.
Model vs market. The data flags three edges — and the win is NOT one of them. The book has France at ~89% implied; the model says 65%. The value is the under, the draw, and even the Iraq win at long prices.
- Under 2.5 at 2.40 — model 53%, implied 42%, an 11.4% edge; if France control rather than rout, this is the play
- Draw at 8.30 — model 22%, implied 12%, a 9.5% edge; rotation/complacency makes this live
- Iraq ML at 23.00 — model 13%, implied 4%, an 8.8% edge; a tiny-probability longshot with real model backing
Avoid: France ML at 1.12 (model only 65% — a severe over-price), France -2.5 chasing a blowout the xG doesn’t project.
The market treats this as a France formality at 89% implied; the model says 65% and stacks the value on the under, the draw, and the long-shot Iraq win. This is a fade-the-favourite-price spot, not a follow-France spot.
Worth checking before you lean on this
- France's matchday-1 result — a win likely seals top spot
- France rotation risk against clearly weaker opposition
- Iraq's defensive block and how deep they sit
- Philadelphia conditions for the goal-total read